I'll see you all......In the AM to watch the Wednsday movie....
All you "Nattering Naybobs of Negativity...."
:-)
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I'll see you all......In the AM to watch the Wednsday movie....
All you "Nattering Naybobs of Negativity...."
:-)
Brandon i understand your frustration and alot of what you say about what this company should be is right.This company is now a monopoly and whatever happened before July 08 is not relevent now,as it is priced at .15 sp
and that is how you have to evaluate it.It cost dearly to become a monopoly and they always make money,history is on our side.Unfortunately the longs on here who have been in it for years have born the cost and heartache that got us to this point,but it is a real company now,not a dream or speculative venture anymore.
Charles on this we agree. It is also why I keep my fingers crossed that MSFT is paying attention....they have wireless already built into the ZUNE. So theoretically you could get an internet sub and listen on a Zune already..I know this horse is beaten....but I am going to keep bringing it up! Autos will come back...but we need to see a bigger picture period!Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Come-on Brandon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews
How could Sirius or XM advertise or market for the year and 1/2 of waiting to see what the marketing message should be, do they go at it alone or together ?
They got so beaten down by the minority interest groups, NAB, Hartlieb (the biggest asshole) and then the financial markets collapsing while Goldman Sach's put all their weight on Sirius neck for the last 6 months.
Now they have what they worked so hard for - the full national spectrum with both licenses combined. They beat unrelenting forces that wnted them to be a thought of the past & it is so incredible what they pulled off in these financial markets.
They have already begun to market themselves as 1 company, cross selling packages and I am sure they are planning a big marketing campaign when the time is right.
I love the Mirge device and I am sure they will have some really cool devices coming and a message to go with it. I'm looking forward to internet devices, players of their own along with an internet app that can be used on many platforms.
I'm looking forward to all this and as positive as ever !
I will buy more shares if any dips.
I'm a proud owner of 16,420 shares of stupid that I bought at about 13 cents a share. I'm standing strong for the long haul. The worst that can happen is that I break even or lose a little money, but the upside is HUGE.Quote:
Originally Posted by KingFreep
"Huge" is an understatement!!!
Heres what the problem Mel ran into, and it might play out very bad for him.
First of all Mel forgot(as older men do) how fast technology becomes relevant, to irrelevant, or outdated at least.
From the time of the announced merger to today, Mel has been unable to advance plans, and look long term. They are stuck in their same revenue streams, and ideas and contracts of adding subs for years, with no new ideas for enactments. As it was necessary to appear that this merger was "necessary" for the survival of satellite radio. 2 strong profitable companies cant go to the FCC and demand a merger, after they pledged never to merge. So they hold off on any great marketing or new app ideas. Maybe the Iphone app gets done a year ago otherwise. The radio that can pick up both XM and Sirius comes out immediately, if not for the Malone deal. Whatever. The point is old man Mel forgot you wait even a month on making your product sexy, and stand still for one moment, and demands get filled. Pay radio? How about free radio that plays no commercials? Ipod? Sirius should have been trying to get involved in that, or make their own player immediatlely after apple. Copy cat works. So what if you a tad behind. Well Merger this, fake a BK there, need a Malone deal, need to focus on deals, and you forget your product. Loss of retail subs shows that unless you beat someone over the head with the product(free year trial, etc..) they dont want it right now. So as technology grows to compute with in-car entertainment, the number of people keeping it will drop. Id say the desire to acquire and keep the radio, percentage wise has "topped out". Its especially in this economy. Where as last year someone might say, sure Ill get it, what choice do i have, now they have internet in the car, cellphones, ipods, etc... Time is no on their side. Brandon and Charlie are right, they needed to be in this stuff last year, not tomorrow, not in a year. LAST year, year before, but this stupid merger has taken all momentum this company had generated, all the buzz, and killed it. Marketing budget plummetted, thats not good. They brag almost of coming down on advertising expenses. Id rather see it increase. ITs all about marketing your product. Its good enough to keep people into it if they get it, this has been proven in their converstion rates on the OEM sales. I feel it will drop. Negative subs for the year might be possible. Negative retail sales, and car additions are sketchy at best to predict. Mel has 2 quarters to show me the dazzle. Show me the plan. No time for "vague comments on the futures anymore" and deals to come. They need it now, yesterday, last year. Lets go Mel. Start spending some money.
That being said, they had some good numbers. So disappointed in the sub count though, I just cant get past that. I think they only have 19.1 million subs right now. They wont get anywhere near 20 million by the end of the year. Best of both worlds might backfire as i posted earlier. Dont think "new customers" are going to find it useful. And people with both subs will now cancel one and keep the other, add best of and save money. You get less money from that person, and you lost a sub too.
Brandon: You are so right, the marketing of this company has been a disgrace, period. There has been no marketing to teenagers, college students, even seniors, who now have a place for the music of their generation...commercial free. I've stated this before, Mel should clean house in the marketing department and get some young kids in there who can get the word out in the forums that kids use to get their info, and push product. Everyday Sirius should issue a press release telling everyone what they missed by not having SiriusXM.
The stiletto 100 which I own is an amazing product, yet it has NEVER been promoted by Sirius, why? Every teenager should have one just like an ipod, because of the CONTENT yet this company hasn't done anything to attract this segment of the market that would buy retail.
I don't get it, it's so frustrating especially for me since I have built two businesses from the ground up and I see so much opportunity lost with this company. Over Christmas they could have reactivated all of the "silent radios" for two weeks to give the departed subscribers a taste of what they are missing, like a free sample, as one poster put it, like a drug dealer who gives you a free taste knowing his profit will come on the come back. I could post page after page of marketing mistakes made by this company but...
STILL, I disagree with you, I believe the 4th Q numbers were amazing, in spite of everything this company grew, and there is no reason to rehash all of the factors weighing down growth for everyone, and yet despite all, one thousand new people each and everyday signed up in this quarter, amazing.
Are there going to be better days ahead, you bet, I am anxious to see what the numbers will be for 1st Quarter, I bet we will add about 150000 more subscribers, all because of increased penetration in the oem sector. Look Brandon every Lincoln, GMC truck, Caddy model has a Sirius radio factory installed and the conversions rates in this economic environment are very good. If in 2009 we increase subscriptions by half a million don't you think that would be a miracle? Especially in light of the events of the past year within and without! Name one media company that has continuing growth in 2008 and will again in 2009.
And we have some wildcards, you know the Apple Iphone application, some tie in with Malone's liberty media, internet applications, better marketing of the back seat TV and the other premium services, improved business in Canada,maybe a microsoft tie in, merger synergies, reworking of some talent contracts.
As long as we keep growing,the profits will come and the shorts will eventually get kicked out, debt will be restructured and we will destroy clear channel.
Will it be easy, no, this company has many enemies but time is on our side. I've said it before,investors ( not including day traders ) must be prepared to buy and hold for at least 60 months and be prepared for the R/S which will come.
Amen brother - you and I are basically in the same boat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzo
I feel where the long time longs in here are coming from though... when your basis is up around a dollar - it's hard to see ANY upside... and they've been drug through the mud...
Biggest difference is - we were lucky enough to come into this later in the game or we'd be just as disgruntled....
I do agree strongly with brandon on one aspect -
The inaction by the SIRI management seems to be unbelievable and the silence is deafening. Maybe it's just me - but where the hell is their marketing.... and they aren't even keeping their investors informed....
That being said - I think they have huge potential and have evolved / gotten past some MAJOR obstacles... Given how SIRI has gotten past BK and is doing this good in SPITE of the rest of the market......
I look at it this way - if I have to get a little more gray hair to make money going long on SIRI - so be it...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paratrooper_Rick
Very true. If I had happened to buy Siri at about $1 a share or more, I'd probably be pulling my hair out right now.
In reviewing the 10Q I did my own calculations of subscriber growth for 2009 and I don't like the figures that I am getting. I am fairly new to the metrics of Sirius subscriptions and I want to make sure my numbers look right. I get (the assumed figures are in italics)
2009
750,000 Monthly Autosales (based on 9M Yearly projected)
58% OEM Penetration Rate (Assumed)
435,000 Monthly Autosales with OEM
45% OEM Conversion Rate (Assumed)
195,750 Gross Monthly OEM Additions
100,000 Gross Monthly Retails Additions (based on 1.2M Yearly)
295,750 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,003,856 Subscriber Base (as of 12/31/08)
295,750 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,299,606 Total Subscriptions prior to churn
1.8% Monthly Churn % (Assumed)
347,393 Monthly Churn Subs cancelled
18,952,213 Total Subscriptions after churn
(51,643) Monthly Net Subs Added (Lost)
From my review it looks like a net loss of about 50K subscribers a month in 2009 with the assumed figures above.
It appears that the issues are twofold. One is that the amount of gross sub additions (OEM + Retail) will decrease this year due to less retails and less auto's being sold (7.6M in 2006, 8.0M in 2007, 7.7M in 2008, 3.6M [295,750 X 12] projected for 2009)
The bigger issue seems that as the subscriber base grows the amount of cancelled subscriptions via churn grows. In short Sirius must start getting MORE gross additions to offset the higher amount of cancellations due a stable churn rate (1.7% to 1.8%) but for a higher subscription base. But instead it looks like due to decreased retail sales and especially decreased autosales the amount of gross additions is decreasing.
Please tell me I am wrong in my numbers as, honestly, I would like to be.
Marketing? What marketing? They rely on others. Two years ago at XMAS, I got two boom boxes, 3 starmates and car hook-ups for free, not to mention two more car adapters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paratrooper_Rick
When is the last time that you saw a SIRI commercial on T.V.?
Last Christmas and in limited quantity and little offers.
When is the last time that you saw a SIRI life-time subscription offer on T.V.?? I haven't seen one, myself.
Marketing and public relations now suck at the very minimum. I realize that this is due to such a tight budget, but you have to advertise to make money. I only own three companies and have to advertise to make money..Yes, I hate paying for it, especially in a slow market, but it has to be done.
The meat is too close to the bone.
Bill
It's funny you said that because while I was praying for SIRI this evening, Jesus told me to drop a grand at $0.13 on E*Trade right away. When I asked Him why, he just said "Trust Me, My Child". So I did because well shoot, who am I to doubt good ol Jesus?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews
Nice rants yesterday Brandon... just a portion of one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews
and yet only 3 days ago, we had this gem from you:
Sirius Finally Living Up To Its Name
March 7, 2009 (5:56 pm) Brandon Matthews
Sirius is the brightest star in the night sky and it happens to be where Sirius Satellite Radio first got its name. As a broker, I would often look for quality story stocks. Sirius XM has just become every brokers dream. In shocking fashion that even Hollywood is now taking notice of, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin has again cleaned up the mess he inherited as a result of massive debt obligations left behind by his predecessor.
You are funny man. I can get that you are pissed (pissed that you sold, or pissed about the company... not sure), but why would you write this absolutely glowing article on the 7th with all the doubt going in the conference call? It couldn't have been anything you felt at a deep level since you have just done a total 180 on a report that couldn't have been anywhere close to a surprise. Most of the level headed, realistic folks feel it was a pretty good report given circumstances. We'll see going forward.
You have good ideas occasionally, but you are way to bi-polar when it comes to this stock for me to take anything you write seriously... not that you care, I know.
Glad Cos, Relmor, sl62, Homer and others are here. Keeps this place sane with a lot of mostly non-emotional insight.
At least we have the Sirius iphone app to be released any day now, right Charles? :-)
I had another bullet in case this thing dropped which I still have, so I'm holding on to what I have and see what happens.
Good reply otone.
SoCalJoe, the only thing that jumps out at me is this above... here you mentioned the amounts of GROSS SUB ADDITIONS being 7.6M, then 8.0M, then 7.7M, then 3.6M... it appears you used the GROSS sub additions in the first 3 years' figures -- then for 2009 you used the GROSS additions, but you removed the promo subs that canceled from it. Your 295,750 monthly figure isn't actually a GROSS figure since it removes dropped promo subs. The previous years' figures you listed included those promo subs.Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalJoe
Using your figures, I come to GROSS ADDITIONS of 6.4M for 2009 (5.2M oem installs + 1.2M retail).
I'll point out that your figures also assume that there is no improvement in OEM sales from the current run rate... which is a conservative call, but could be warranted. Plus you also assume RETAIL sales of 1.2M -- which is a 25% drop from my estimate of what they did in 2008 (which was 1.6M)... again, a conservative call which may not be bad to consider. In both cases, the numbers are very rough and conservative. They could breakeven or have positive growth very easily too. We just don't know.
----
it's up 11% in pre market. I'm sure it'll tank down to .12 but it just goes to show you that you never know with this stock. All the die hard regulars who sold 40-50% last night are probably kicking themselves. Where is your faith? I couldn't believe all ofyou "longs" jumping ship so quickly... well I can believe brandon doing it. And for what a few hundred dollars more? Nothing wrong with that necessarily but c'mon selling 50% of your shares hoping to buy back? I hope you never get the chance. Have a good day
Hey guys is there ant merit to this article.
The satellite radio operator reported a quarterly loss that
narrowed from the prior year and sales that were better than
expected. It added 82,945 subscribers in the quarter.
[ID:nN10545815] The stock surged 60 percent to 24 cents in premarket
trade.
Hi, That was 100 shares at .24 at 528am currently at .1697