If XM goes bk, where do all of their subscribers go? 9 million gonna quit the sat rad addiction like that? Come on, if XM goes so does all of its sattellites and whatever else, but I doubt more than 25% of their subs go. Yo
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If XM goes bk, where do all of their subscribers go? 9 million gonna quit the sat rad addiction like that? Come on, if XM goes so does all of its sattellites and whatever else, but I doubt more than 25% of their subs go. Yo
Brandon, I agree with Homer - your position seems a little dire.
BK could happen of course, but I don't see rational for Malone/Liberty letting that happen.
Please explain why you think BK (which is dependent on "going concern" statement which, in turn, depends on May debt) would be in Liberty's interest.
Keep in mind that that Sirius assets are not appropriately priced. The XM assets (the intangibles... ie, their FCC licenses) were revalued for the merger. For example, the licenses are now worth $2BB; the Sirius licenses are still valued at just $80MM. Quite a discrepency. But that is GAAP rules. In bankruptcy court, what will the licenses be valued at??? The current $2BB for the XM licenses? Or the $80MM for the Sirius licenses??Quote:
Originally Posted by Siriusowner
That will have an affect on what equity is leftover in bankruptcy court.
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little dire? that's a slight understatementQuote:
Originally Posted by seri
Why would Liberties preferred be ahead of older preferred? Why would liberty risk 172 million to get behind other preferred?
Liberty had the most recent insight in Sirius finances and made the deal.
I think everything is OK but I agree the doubt is why we sit at .13
We're talking chapter 11, not chapter 7, so the subs should go nowhere. The business would continue to operate as normal from the subscriber standpoint.Quote:
Originally Posted by yomann
Its lawyer talk that basically says KPMG needs time to review the deal that Ma"loan" and Mel worked out, then KPMG will acknowledge that there is no going concern, then malone hands over the rest of the dough.
Malone has already seen the Q4 numbers and is fine with giving the money over based on this, but he didn't have enough time to review all of sirius xm's books when writing out this load so he wrote in the loan that if, for some reason, the auditor finds something drastic that Malone didn't have time to find between Feb 10th and 17th when he got involved that he still has an out.
summary: malone fast money, little review, auditor completes review and only concern is malone handing over more dough, alls good in da hood.
I've convinced myself all is fine so I can go to sleep now...
8 years of watching these stocks -- one thing I've learned... knee-jerk reactions to stuff like this turn out to be wrong 99% of the time. Nearly every time I reacted quickly to an event that occured (good or bad), I was wrong.
I've learned to be patient, talk things through and then make a decision after letting some of it play out.
Hi Otone -- "A little dire" was meant as understatement.
Can't say BK is "impossible", but it is either at odds with the interests involved or Brandon needs to tell us a story . . . why Liberty would allow it to happen.
Well, one thing's for sure -- right now, Liberty has next to nothing. They hold some Senior Notes that put them in line, but as of now they have no equity (preferred or common). Default? Won't get them too much. After the full refinancing? They'll have basic control of the company with little risk, in the event of default.Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
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