Just a little update. WTF IS HAPPENING WITH THIS MARKET!!!!
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Just a little update. WTF IS HAPPENING WITH THIS MARKET!!!!
Capitulation. Except I don't think we are there yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
It is getting ugly, need to take back 3.35 or else we can assume that most of the collateral has been released and no longer any reason for the to protect it and the other call levels. If that is the case, we can assume the 3.05 support is irrelevant and we go with 3.09 and 2.98 as the areas I will be looking to cover. Does not mean there is not more downside from there. Just that easy money to be made from the short off the top has been made. Will go in to purely a trading more from there.
And if we close over 3.35?Quote:
Originally Posted by waldo29
Just a pause, it mostly means you would be able to get some trades in using 3.35 as a 'predictable' support level and the broader market may not even allow that. But, if it holds, 3.35 probably won't last all that long. That wave down through 3.35 is an indicator of how strong the support is @ 3.35 (or willingness to defend with the BB). Not as strong as a longs would have hoped. Losing both 3.65 and 3.35 within 5 trading means there is less of a need to defend those levels from a LM collateral perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
LM's stake in Charter (and other ventures) is important to SIRI. There has always been a lot more to SIRI than fundamentals. Some call it manipulation, but it's more aptly defined as it's being used to build an empire for JM. fundamentals will matter more when JM is done using LM's SIRI stake to build their empire. We are not there yet, but... the tracking stock split is a step to getting us there.
Update, doubled down at 3.30...nice bounce of low of day. Siri holding decent on terrible day....down less than 2% for the day at this moment while many other stocks down up to %10. Love these bargain basement prices! :money:
3.36 close boyz n girls :)
So are you saying you feel that 3.35 support is essentially irrelevant at this point?Quote:
Originally Posted by waldo29
Hopefully that was an excellent buy!Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
Depends, to prevent us from going lower over the next 3.5 months, yes it is no longer relevant. 3.35 is Just a point to trade off of. From a short term trading perspective, there is probably a gap play to go long into and then short against.Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
I think it makes sense to pay close attention to 1812 on the S&P. This is just MHO, based on the fact that the S&P touched 1812 intraday back on January 20th before bouncing off that level and finishing higher for the day. As bad as things have been last week and this week so far, we haven't retraced to that level (yet). 1812 could prove to be an important psychological floor and if that breaks, it might signal a bigger decline for the mkt. The VIX is up over 11% yesterday but is still well below the 40 level it reached last Aug/Sept. For this market to signal a turn we need capitulation and that usually comes with much higher levels on the VIX (that's why it's called the "fear gauge"). However, if these levels hold right here they could provide a near-term base off of which the market can build support.
The above is just a guess but worth watching/considering in light of the market weakness. For more fundamental analysis, I would just point out that it's still not cheap, with the S&P trading at approx. 15x earnings vs. the 10 year avg. of around 14x.
If there was a way to invest in Superbowl Ticket futures I would definitely consider it for an uncorrelated asset class hedge against the mkt.
The face value of the most expensive SB ticket in SB#1 back in 1967 (which was also held in LA) was $12. The most expensive ticket (excluding club seats which were not available in 1967) for this year's Superbowl was $1,800 face value. That's about a 10.8% compounded rate of return over the past 49 years.
So what has the S&P done over the same time span? 10.1% compounded on a total return basis. And I'm guessing that was with a whole lot more volatility.
Excellent perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by user34615145
Yellen tomorrow, lip service to taking March off the table we get a good bounce, but it will be sold a few (2-4) days out, probably as China comes back to trade. If it is spun as staying the course with 4 for 2016, we continue down and take out 1812. Support, 1776 comes quick, and 1730 takes some time. Worst case, 6/25/2013 low (2016 low). German banks are now the story (NPL's off the energy lower for longer concern), and they (ECB--> FED) will need to protect them. Still in the bounces should be sold world.
Agreed. Yes it all turns on Yellen's testimony. At a minimum she needs to take March off the table so there is no question. That'll garner a pop. But for any real sentiment to change she also has to open the door to the possibility that other planned rate hikes could/would be on hold until more solid signs of growth are evident.Quote:
Originally Posted by waldo29
Until it becomes obvious who the next president will be, I believe the US markets will remain undecided as to which direction it takes.
It's pretty clear that Francis Underwood will win the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by SN38
Well then that's it for the house of cardsQuote:
Originally Posted by waldo29
Little covering into the close, Yellen text comes out Pre-market (8:30). She speaks @ 10:00. SIRI should close the gap today, to convenient of a set up not to.
Edit: ..or not...
If you followed the trade, part one is complete, long into 3.40 gap. I would hold on part 2, short against it, until Yellen is finished with her testimony. Only to see the market reaction, if any. You might get a few extra pennies on your sell.Quote:
Originally Posted by waldo29
Where is Midas ? Hasn`t been here since last month, I miss him. I guess you guys ran him out of Dodge. You gave him a bad rap, he`s not a bad guy. He likes to play with you guys, maybe you guys are too SERIUS and should lighten up a bit.
Brandon20 - The opportunity to buy Disney below $88 at less than 15 times next year's earnings??? I never thought I would have that opportunity again in my life!Quote:
Originally Posted by njbones1