SIRI INTRA DAY thread THUR MAY 7th 2009

hmmwonder where we go from here ^_^

I have to say that this is a very optimistic site. Just that today would have been one kick ass day if this stock would have just held flat. It is going to take another month at least, to get rid of this glitch.

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

is brandon still writing that they will reverse the deal with the new authorized shares? LOL.....ok so according to you, and i believe you, they said they will pay debt with cash on hand. then this new authorization is for what? backpocket emergency issues? if what you said johnny is true, its not good news, its GREAT NEWS!!!!!!

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The authorization of the extra 1 bil in shares i believe is for the scenario if Liberty converts preffered into common anytime in the next year and a half.
But also to pay off Liberty debt at a premium for the additional 9% of common they can aquire per investment agreement,which if i were libertry,wouldn't you want to buy it now at this sp than later at $1SP..
yes it is great news..
P.S.yes he is still writing that line of thinking!!! LOL

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Originally Posted by stkdn

I have to say that this is a very optimistic site. Just that today would have been one kick ass day if this stock would have just held flat. It is going to take another month at least, to get rid of this glitch.

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I don't think it will take that long to rebound. The street will start to absorb these numbers, and realize the knee jerk reaction was overplayed. I bought another 40k shares. Now let's see it sink in and then react upwards. May even do some rebounding this afternoon.

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Originally Posted by TSavery

Much of the 7 cent loss is a one time expense. Thus, investors should consider it accordingly. The loss is real in terms of GAAP, and thus it gets reported that way.

What does this mean? It means that those who understand why the loss was at 7 cents will have an advatage, as long as the company continues to improve their trend.

The headlines often create the sentiment, and this is one reason why you see the wild price swings.

You will likely see several articles dealing with the one time cost in the coming days

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What I don't comprehend is why the earnings press release and the CC didn't emphasize this one time charge???? That should've been front and center. Makes no sense to me. Are you sure it's a one time charge? They booked the entire interest to Liberty for 2009 in Q1? Is that what you are saying?
If this is all true, then they need new PR people!! Who the hell does that? Companies ALWAYS explain one time charges up front, because everyone knows that the Street ALWAYS looks ahead and loves charges that are booked and gone. What's the f'n deal?

would it be too much of a stretch to think that the (.07) number is being used as a scare tactic to enable the slugs to buy in on a panic sell?

Because I too have not a clue why a one time adjustment is not getting more positive spin. Unless it is not a one time adjustment and the Liberty equity will cause havoc for several quarters.

someone smarter than me please shed some light...

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Originally Posted by Siriustunes

would it be too much of a stretch to think that the (.07) number is being used as a scare tactic to enable the slugs to buy in on a panic sell?

Because I too have not a clue why a one time adjustment is not getting more positive spin. Unless it is not a one time adjustment and the Liberty equity will cause havoc for several quarters.

someone smarter than me please shed some light...

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They did emphasize one time cost,but remember most of the stories were printed and put on-line before CC.they saw raw report and saw (.07) and ran with it.as in most on-line reporting they copy from each other and regurgitate it over and over,wait a few days and you'll see better more indepth reports..

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

They did emphasize one time cost,but remember most of the stories were printed and put on-line before CC.they saw raw report and saw (.07) and ran with it.as in most on-line reporting they copy from each other and regurgitate it over and over,wait a few days and you'll see better more indepth reports..

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Johnny.....do you know what the one time cost is? I don't recall hearing it on the CC, but easily could've missed it. thanks. But, even if they did mention it on the CC, why the hell didn't they include it in the first paragraph of the press release? Seems strange to me.

bassmaster, I am pissed I thought the quarterly report was really good. Because of that I missed a sell at .53, .54 (had one in at .615) and a rebuy at .43. I mean holy crap anyone following this company for a while knows the fact that they only lost 3.6 million in FCF for the first quarter should have been big news. That is as close to being FCF positive as they have ever gotten. Look at what they lost last year what 311 million in FCF for the first quarter. On top of that it is like them making payments on the princble of that debt (not the just the interest mind you but princible). They did that and only lost 3.6 million in FCF, that is amazing.

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Originally Posted by underway

Johnny.....do you know what the one time cost is? I don't recall hearing it on the CC, but easily could've missed it. thanks. But, even if they did mention it on the CC, why the hell didn't they include it in the first paragraph of the press release? Seems strange to me.

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it was the liberty deal,30mil fee for helping us out(gee thanks) 25mil credit facility payment to liberty for loan Liberty took over,and fees for the shares to debt...they stressed EBITDA as they should have at beginning,remember the CC is for analysts and they know about the one time cost..

P.S. forgot increased interest for Liberty loans..

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Originally Posted by john

This was due to the liberty deal it includes the preferred shares that Liberty got. So while it is a cost it is A.)a one time cost, and B.) not a real cost to the busness portion of the company. The real cost was 50.4 million, I dont think analyst included the liberty deal in there lost so really SIRIXM beat by a penny. This is why you get such swings in the PPS, articles come out with head lines that say SIRIXM loss widens to .07 cents analyst were expecting .02 cents. It was the same when they took the right down because of the PPS of XMSR when they bought it and what the PPS was valued at in the quarter when they reported. The fact is SIRIXM did not really lose 4 billion in expenses it was really a red hairring

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underway I wrote this a while back.

Then the headline should read, "SXM beats earnings estimate by .01, excluding one time financing cost!"

Where can someone post this positive message?

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Originally Posted by john

This was due to the liberty deal it includes the preferred shares that Liberty got. So while it is a cost it is A.)a one time cost, and B.) not a real cost to the busness portion of the company. The real cost was 50.4 million, I dont think analyst included the liberty deal in there lost so really SIRIXM beat by a penny. This is why you get such swings in the PPS, articles come out with head lines that say SIRIXM loss widens to .07 cents analyst were expecting .02 cents. It was the same when they took the right down because of the PPS of XMSR when they bought it and what the PPS was valued at in the quarter when they reported. The fact is SIRIXM did not really lose 4 billion in expenses it was really a red hairring

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I am definitely CONFUSED over SIRI earnings press release. It gives GAAP number 'per share' and then another number 'per common share'. And they don't explain that. MORONS! could siri management be that stupid? I'm confused about this. Anyone understand it? Can anyone explain why SIRI mgmt didn't put explanation right up front?

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Originally Posted by underway

Johnny.....do you know what the one time cost is? I don't recall hearing it on the CC, but easily could've missed it. thanks. But, even if they did mention it on the CC, why the hell didn't they include it in the first paragraph of the press release? Seems strange to me.

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because in the grand scheme of the things, its not THAT MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. i'm sure there were much more important issues to highlight. why are you so hellbent on stressing the difference in the net loss(not trying to be mean)? smart money knows the difference , that is the only thing that is important about the disparity in those numbers. if there wasnt the 1time charge because of the liberty deal, and we have the same metrics , media would still be bashing on the sub loss....for the media to show love to sirius, we would have to shlt bricks of gold.

well i lowered my sell from .70 to .60, im only going to try and flip 10%, and dont think you had anything to do with this ben. I still have a trade trigger for the other 90 percent at a dollar. slut boy

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Originally Posted by underway

I am definitely CONFUSED over SIRI earnings press release. It gives GAAP number 'per share' and then another number 'per common share'. And they don't explain that. MORONS! could siri management be that stupid? I'm confused about this. Anyone understand it? Can anyone explain why SIRI mgmt didn't put explanation right up front?

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the simple answer is don't worry about it,it is standard report form and for analysts,not us investors to understand...the stock take down is all fake for day traders and shorts.the longs have nothing to fear,and get ready for 2Q cc
as it will be the same...with neg sub of 200k to 300k and better or same ebitda plus Iphone release,which i'm not counting to help bottom line but rather perception of company huge.

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

because in the grand scheme of the things, its not THAT MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. i'm sure there were much more important issues to highlight. why are you so hellbent on stressing the difference in the net loss(not trying to be mean)? smart money knows the difference , that is the only thing that is important about the disparity in those numbers. if there wasnt the 1time charge because of the liberty deal, and we have the same metrics , media would still be bashing on the sub loss....for the media to show love to sirius, we would have to shlt bricks of gold.

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yeah..for sure....but I'm not the only one hellbent on the net loss....every f'n headline is harping on it and the obvious sell off is related to that and other things for sure (sub loss). I guess I'm trying to understand why mgmt wouldn't have explained it properly in the PR. It seems to add confusion. If smart $ knows the difference, why the dump of shares? I just find it strange.

I dont know but I still think that only 3.6 million in FCF lost in the first quarter, is huge. You can confirm that with "homer" or "Tyler". When was the last time we ever saw them come that close to being FCF positive in the first quarter, try never. Remember the 4th quarter will have a really big FCF number. This time all the merger cost are done the only thing this time is the satellite launch (god I wish they would push that one back also). You want to see the PPS take off let them push that back.

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Originally Posted by john

I dont know but I still think that only 3.6 million in FCF lost in the first quarter, is huge. You can confirm that with "homer" or "Tyler". When was the last time we ever saw them come that close to being FCF positive in the first quarter, try never. Remember the 4th quarter will have a really big FCF number. This time all the merger cost are done the only thing this time is the satellite launch (god I wish they would push that one back also). You want to see the PPS take off let them push that back.

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John actually it was 76mil FCF if you take out the 1 time Liberty cost..
Based just von the bussiness side of operations..

Im feeling like a genius for selling at .51 yesterday. I cant tell you how much I agonized about selling because i thought stock would fly up today and i would hate myself. But i sold anyway and now im Yay! Its not often i feel smart ;)