SIRI Intraday Thread: Wednesday March 25th

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03-25-2009, 01:23 PM
relmor2003

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmo2424

so if you believe .30-.32 will be tested before we go up higher then wouldn't you sell some shares and rebuy? I don't have the stomach to play with too many shares outside my core position but I feel like folks who are influential and put out a theory like you, Relmor, perhaps should tell us in the context of their actions. You usually do, which is generous of you, but in this case what's your plan?

This chart is saying there is a wedge forming, but its days to a week in breaking out. Up channel now is supported at around .30 cents. Any "takedowns" would probably stop there. Its good news. Means we might not see .25 again. Thats about it. Im not recommending anything. Just interesting to see if it continues. As volume drops, you will probably see some up action. Maybe under 40million for a few days....
When you look 3 months out you see a better picture. Still too much volitility in the price right now. Its settling still. Until we close over 39, we wont be in danger of breaking out.
Chance we see .45 and then take down to .32. If this pattern is correct, then that would be possible.
Wedge is still the inferior pattern developing here. The upchannel is more important.
03-25-2009, 01:33 PM
Rook

Interesting?

http://www.politicallore.com/economy...peculation/713

New article posted with some speculation about AT&T and DirecTV and how it might relate to Sirius
03-25-2009, 01:34 PM
Gallep

UH OH, Closing in the Green is looking ify today...
03-25-2009, 01:37 PM
Demian

Prediction: SIRI closes @ .38 today.....
03-25-2009, 01:37 PM
mogami

well our buddy who accidentally sold yesterday better be getting ready to re-buy
This stock likes to change direction quickly in the afternoon
03-25-2009, 01:41 PM
stang3O2

that was me, I picked up some in after hours yesterday and have my buy in now for .3462 to pick up the rest, hopefully I can get back to 100% today
03-25-2009, 01:41 PM
underway

The article suggests SIRI would go to AT&T with AT&T purchase of DTV. But, remember, Liberty owns SIRI, DTV doesn't have any stake in SIRI. DTV is owned by Liberty as well. If AT&T buys DTV, they can only get SIRI if they buy SIRI separately and Liberty 40% stake wouldn't allow them to dictate the deal. Shareholders (all of us plus Liberty as a 40% shareholder) would have to approve the deal too. And...don't forget US DOJ may not be happy with AT&T owning one of two sat tv companies and the only sat radio company, under anti-trust provisions.
03-25-2009, 01:46 PM
underway

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rook

http://www.politicallore.com/economy...peculation/713

New article posted with some speculation about AT&T and DirecTV and how it might relate to Sirius

and...forgot to mention.....Mel wouldn't be happy with such a sale unless it were for a nice premium share price. He owns a ton of shares and I'm sure he wouldn't settle for a paltry .75 or even $1/share. Most shareholders of SIRI would balk unless it the offer was way over those numbers.
03-25-2009, 01:47 PM
Demian

If you are waiting for a buy point to buy SIRI - this is it!

Buy Buy Buy SIRI right now under .36.......

Disclosure: I'm not a financial advisor and am wrong a lot.....
03-25-2009, 01:52 PM
dmo2424

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demian

If you are waiting for a buy point to buy SIRI - this is it!

Buy Buy Buy SIRI right now under .36.......

Disclosure: I'm not a financial advisor and am wrong a lot.....

Well I guess I got bored with my current portfolio and "averaged down" some more with new money. We'll see. another 10,000 shares added to my misery and got it at .3551. we'll see if this goes down to .30-.32 now (grrr) or ideally on it's way up without looking back... i'm due for some lucky guesses once in a while, no?
03-25-2009, 01:53 PM
Gallep

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demian

Disclosure: I'm not a financial advisor and am wrong a lot.....

Ha, that should be your sig! :D
03-25-2009, 01:59 PM
Paratrooper_Rick

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmo2424

Well I guess I got bored with my current portfolio and "averaged down" some more with new money. We'll see. another 10,000 shares added to my misery and got it at .3551. we'll see if this goes down to .30-.32 now (grrr) or ideally on it's way up without looking back... i'm due for some lucky guesses once in a while, no?

I picked up a little more yesterday around .32.... I thought I'd made a mistake at one point - but glad now...

I think it may be turning around a bit... I didn't think it would cross below .36 in my earlier post... dipped a little below - so I was off some...

I think the afternoon close will be good... not sure we have the momentum to get past .39 yet.... thinking we bust down the .40 wall tomorrow like I was saying in my first few posts today.... today was about building a solid platform ...
03-25-2009, 02:00 PM
imromo24

Quote:

Originally Posted by demian

if you are waiting for a buy point to buy siri - this is it!

Buy buy buy siri right now under .36.......

Disclosure: I'm not a financial advisor and am wrong a lot.....

i did i did!
03-25-2009, 02:02 PM
Paratrooper_Rick

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demian

Prediction: SIRI closes @ .38 today.....

.38 may be right ... depending on volume/momentum...

I think after hours will be fun to watch tonight.

I can't wait til we bust over the .40 wall.... that will be a fun point in the charts...
03-25-2009, 02:03 PM
mogami

hmmmmmmm does it stay up or do another dip before 1500 and then goes up toward close. I think it closes at .36xx
This stock likes to fool both buyers and sellers

"ah crap I could have got more for my sale"
"Ah crap I could have bought lower"

remember the pattern is open over previous close and close below open (but higher then previous close)
03-25-2009, 02:18 PM
choirgirl

This stock can drive you nuts, 0.39 this morning and next time I checked 0.35.At least this time we went down with the market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mogami

hmmmmmmm does it stay up or do another dip before 1500 and then goes up toward close. I think it closes at .36xx
This stock likes to fool both buyers and sellers

"ah crap I could have got more for my sale"
"Ah crap I could have bought lower"
03-25-2009, 02:19 PM
Demian

I really hate these ****ers at The Motley Fool, but this is a positive piece...

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...nd-sirius.aspx

The World Revolves Around Sirius
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz
March 25, 2009

Things are going so well for Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) these days that it doesn't even have to say a word for positive things to happen. All it has to do is sit tight as those around it generate headlines that are favorable for the satellite radio operator.

This week alone, we've seen a few nuggets that don't mention Sirius XM directly, but have an indirect impact on the company and its fundamentals.

Last.fm is scrapping its ad-based free model in all but three countries.
DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) renewed its contract with the NFL at a much higher rate.
Cox Radio's (NYSE: CXR) parent launched a tender offer to take the terrestrial radio operator private.
The implications may not seem obvious in all of these events, so let's break it down.

Last in line
Web radio specialist Last.fm announced that it would begin charging listeners the Euro equivalent of roughly $4 a month in countries outside the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Since the CBS (NYSE: CBS) music hub has found it tricky to ramp up ad sales outside of those three regions -- and the music industry continues to bump royalty rates higher -- are the days of free Internet radio numbered?

Sirius XM and online radio appeared to have little in common a year or two ago. Satellite radio is something that is mostly consumed in the car, on the road. Web radio is something that is typically enjoyed in a Web-tethered home.

That's changing. 3G smartphones that hit the market last year have the ability to stream Internet radio on the go. Chrysler began offering car-mounted Internet routers this past summer.

Convergence cuts both ways, though. Earlier this month, Sirius XM ramped up the bit-rate quality of its Internet streams and began charging monthly plan subscribers $2.99 a month for Web access. That seemed like a dicey value proposition given the plethora of free ad-supported Web radio options, but if other companies begin to drift into subscriber-based models like Last.fm is doing in many markets, it would clearly help Sirius XM.

More importantly, since Last.fm apparently believes there is a market for premium radio outside the United States, it may open the door for Sirius XM in cyberspace, where it's not limited to the reach of its North American satellites.

"Hike" means many things in the NFL
Poor DirecTV. The satellite television leader was able to lock up several more years of NFL Ticket exclusivity, but at a steep ransom of $1 billion a year. It is currently paying just $700 million a year for the complete suite of NFL games, which have proven to be a big seller for DirecTV.

Maybe DirecTV can pass the cost on to its subscribers. Maybe it will be able to land more football fans to offset the higher fees. However, what's clear is that DirecTV likely had competition in bidding for an extension from desperate rival DISH Network (Nasdaq: DISH) and perhaps even cable giant Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA), despite the geographical limitations.

How can this be good news for Sirius XM when a money-hungry NFL steps up to renew its audio deal with Sirius? Well, who is Sirius going to bid against? It certainly isn't going to compete with its own XM for satellite radio exclusivity. Don't even begin to pit Sirius XM against the fragmented terrestrial radio market or the nascent Web market. DirecTV was likely competing against a hungry competitor in DISH Network, which shed net subscribers last year. Sirius XM will have much greater flexibility in dictating its content renewal terms across all deals.

Cox follows Clear Channel's lead
Wall Street hasn't been kind to terrestrial radio operators, so it's no surprise to see Cox Enterprises looking to take Cox Radio private. Entercom's (NYSE: ETM) founder and his son have also been buying back stock, quite possibly to take that company private too.

Going private doesn't mean that a company goes away, of course. Clear Channel is still a juggernaut. However, being private dries up the potential for raising funds through equity offerings or acquiring rival broadcasters in stock deals.

Satellite radio gets stronger, by default, as terrestrial radio gets weaker.

Along the way, Sirius XM shares have grown sevenfold since bottoming out at last month. Sure, we're just talking about nickels here, but as the wide array of headlines show, being nickel-and-dimed by small pieces of welcome news is not a bad way to get rich.
03-25-2009, 02:25 PM
Paratrooper_Rick

Quote:

Originally Posted by choirgirl

This stock can drive you nuts, 0.39 this morning and next time I checked 0.35.At least this time we went down with the market.

Mogami is right - this thing will fool you in a heartbeat..... but luckily - the further we get from the hellish BK levels we suffered through - the more it's reacting to overall market trends....

I have been staring at the charts... and listening to all the great advice I get in this board... a combination of it all - plus some good common sense... usually works well with SIRI...

I will admit - I didn't see the bubble pop when we had the dowturn end of last week... but that is my fault - I didn't look far enough back to see the real trend.....
03-25-2009, 02:26 PM
Demian

These ****ers are still calling for BK.......unbelievable.

http://www.rwonline.com/article/76928

Quote:

Public confusion over the concept of digital radio is a big part of the problem, Sarow believes. "People really don't know the difference between satellite radio and HD Radio; they are quite baffled," he told Radio World. "Add the fact that satellite radio has gotten the lion's share of advertising and receiver availability, and it's not surprising that the public really doesn't know about us. Maybe if Sirius XM doesn't make it past their next debt refinancing, this will change."
03-25-2009, 02:30 PM
Demian

Interesting speculation......

http://www.politicallore.com/economy...peculation/713

Quote:

If the 42% of Sirius XM goes with DirectTV, does it mean that AT&T could be the new 42% partner with Sirius XM? What would AT&T be interested in at Sirius XM? Content? Wireless Spectrum? The CEO of AT&T, has been heard saying that if you�re not in wireless, you won�t make it.

Could Liberty Media be acting as a middle man while priming DirectTV for a merger with AT&T. Is Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) just along for the ride or has this been the plan the whole time?

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