SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 11/17/08

If GM were to go BK (I don't think they will and they will get gov. help), people will still buy cars - just from a different company. SIRI has agreements with every major car company. Who cares if more cars are bought from a different car company - as long as there is a sat rad in the car? How does the GM arrangement with SIRI compare to the arrangements that SIRI has with the other car companies? Maybe it would be better for SIRI if people bought cars from different car companies in which the revenue sharing arrangement was more beneficial to SIRI?

Today's Pivot Table
R2 - R1 - Pivot - S1 -S2
0.23 0.20 0.18 0.15 0.13

1.5 hours to go........

SIRI is finding some support at S1 for the time being after having problems cracking the wall at .16.....

Market is bloody red - DOW down 112 now......

About an hour left to go.......

Market still bloody red - DOW down 155

SIRI had crawled it's way back to the wall at .16, but faced resistance again...

Breaking .16 with some volume is the key to SIRI closing green today.....

It could happen.................or not.....................who knows?

WOW.. WHAT A DAY!!! :eek:

gm bailed out then not .. sirius on a down 71 lost a penny..

I called the wip saw this a.m. got a big trade shorting QLD from 23.50 to 20.75 .. :thumbup:

I Im a great trader and a lousy investor ..lol.. :p

bottom line mel needs to speak.. but we know he wont.. :out:

SIRI closed down .012 @ .15..........

Market continued crashing today.........DOW down 500 points!

Things suck, but I guess it could have been worse......

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Demian

SIRI closed down .012 @ .15..........

Market continued crashing today.........DOW down 500 points!

Things suck, but I guess it could have been worse......

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That's not bad. I though it was going down to the 0.12 - 0.13 range but I guess the stock had too much bleeding in the last 3 days. Still, it may react tomorrow to the selloff today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Siriusowner

Still, it may react tomorrow to the selloff today.

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..........or not.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by APEXSPORTS

WOW.. WHAT A DAY!!! :eek:

gm bailed out then not .. sirius on a down 71 lost a penny..

I called the wip saw this a.m. got a big trade shorting QLD from 23.50 to 20.75 .. :thumbup:

I Im a great trader and a lousy investor ..lol.. :p

bottom line mel needs to speak.. but we know he wont.. :out:

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I shorted 1000 shares of XTO energy @ $33.42 this morning. I still have the trade open because I know they are hurting. They basically stopped their work for the year and will resume next year. Everything they do has to go thru the president.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Siriusowner

I shorted 1000 shares of XTO energy @ $33.42 this morning. I still have the trade open because I know they are hurting. They basically stopped their work for the year and will resume next year. Everything they do has to go thru the president.

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There is a forum for other related stocks below this one. Congratulations, but XTO has nothing to do with SIRI........

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Demian

There is a forum for other related stocks below this one. Congratulations, but XTO has nothing to do with SIRI........

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I know, I got carried away...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Demian

SIRI closed down .012 @ .15..........

Market continued crashing today.........DOW down 500 points!

Things suck, but I guess it could have been worse......

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Hey, I got a closing price of .14 not .15 where are you seeing .15 ?

What is the deal with the price drops right at the close each day? Can someone explain this?

Also, did anyone look at the after hours action? Both yahoo and TD Ameritrade were showing an after-hours trade under 10 cents. Is this correct? Can someone shed a little light on this?

This smells like manipulation.

Daniel

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Siriusowner

Hey, I got a closing price of .14 not .15 where are you seeing .15 ?

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There must have been one more manipulative trade that went through right at or after the close again.....

I didn't see it on my time and sales. After hours trades were already going through before that trade went through.....I didn't see it!

This sucks.......something criminal is going on.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Demian

All these BK rumors I'm hearing are making me angry. They make it sound like BK could happen at any moment - it's total BS. You have got 210 million due in Feb. '09 - they have more than enough cash on hand to pay that off and they are going into what has been the best quarter of the year for them. Q4 will generate positive cash flow - like it has in the past. Then comes the May debt - which will likely be extended or refinanced. They will have cash to deal with that too from the added synergy savings that will continue to accelerate in the next few months. They have got several months and the environment should be friendlier by then.......

A lot of horrible things would have to happen for BK to be an issue......and even if they did, it wouldn't be an issue for several months.

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As of now, Yahoo is showing an after hours price of 0.15.

Anyways, you are correct Demian, and that is what I have been saying for weeks. Mel has the cash on hand to pay off the February debt. May will get extended, which will give another full year until the November converts are due.
Q4 will be FCF positive, which will add money to the coffers.
The ONLY thing that worries me is cash burn during Q1 and Q2 next year. I still think those will be negative, though Q2 may surprise. (Q2 has traditionally been bette than Q3, and Q3 was ALMOST breakeven, so Q2 may be positive, but given the economy, I doubt it).

As far as GM BK goes, that may actually turn out to be a win for Sirius XM. Sure, they would not get many subscribers from them, but with GM going BK, Sirius XM will save the nearly 50% revshare that they are forced to pay GM, they will save all of the subsidies, and they will also potentiall be able to renegotiate their contract with GM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Newman

As of now, Yahoo is showing an after hours price of 0.15.

Anyways, you are correct Demian, and that is what I have been saying for weeks. Mel has the cash on hand to pay off the February debt. May will get extended, which will give another full year until the November converts are due.
Q4 will be FCF positive, which will add money to the coffers.
The ONLY thing that worries me is cash burn during Q1 and Q2 next year. I still think those will be negative, though Q2 may surprise. (Q2 has traditionally been bette than Q3, and Q3 was ALMOST breakeven, so Q2 may be positive, but given the economy, I doubt it).

As far as GM BK goes, that may actually turn out to be a win for Sirius XM. Sure, they would not get many subscribers from them, but with GM going BK, Sirius XM will save the nearly 50% revshare that they are forced to pay GM, they will save all of the subsidies, and they will also potentiall be able to renegotiate their contract with GM.

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Ok Newman you seem to know what is going on.

Lets forget about GM and the other 2 for a minute.

What is the cash burn rate for Sirius ? They have 360 mil. in cash and I am not worried about them burning it all, I am worried that they burn a big chunk and the credit markets don't unfreeze, you know what I am talking about.

I would not be worried if there were credit available but, we know there are none. I do not want to hear any wishful thinking, please.

... And I know what happens if they run out of cash, I just want to know what's the cash burn rate for Sirius.

ps: I agree with your quarter by quarter analysis. Q4 should add cash to the coffers but how much more ? . I am worried about Q1 and Q2.

Thanks.

Pivot Table for Today
R2 -R1 - Pivot - S1 - S2
0.18 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.12

Another worthless article.....

http://idolator.com/5095676/siriusxm...o-channel-zero

Sirius/XM Stock Heading To Channel Zero

Despite my wife's contention that there's never anything on and that the the Oprah channel's Dr. Oz show is poorly scheduled, I generally enjoy my Sirius subscription, which now comes with extra XM. As I've noted before, Phoenix radio is about as bad as could be imagined and I'm generally too lazy to actually bring discs into the car to listen to, so the subscription seems like a decent deal. However, given the company's recent financial news, I may end up regretting paying for six months in advance.

With satellite radio's patron, the car industry, collapsing, things aren't looking good for the recently merged Sirius/XM: The stock's at 14 cents and industry types are predicting it could fall further. That seems bad.

At least one financial analyst is now even comfortable being quoted using the "B" word — bankruptcy.

CNNMoney: "The outlook for Sirius XM has grown increasingly worrisome and at the current time looks bleak," said Frederick Moran, an analyst with Stanford Group. "At this point, you have to question whether Sirius XM will survive 2009 in its current structure. There is a likelihood that it could enter bankruptcy."

As my colleague Henry Blodget said Tuesday, yes, Sirius could go to zero. (We've updated the numbers as Sirius' market cap has had $200 million wiped off in the last two days.)

Mel Karmazin's company currently has an equity market capitalization (value of the stock) of $455 million. It also $360 million of cash and $3.3 billion of debt, so its "enterprise value"—the implied value of the business itself—is about $3.5 billion. The only thing that has to happen for Sirius (SIRI) stock to go to zero is for the market to conclude that the company is worth less than $3 billion. This would wipe out the company's stock value, leaving the company in the hands of the debt-holders.

Why might the market soon conclude that Sirius is worth less than $3 billion? Because it's running out of cash. In the first 9 months of this year, Sirius had negative free cash flow (cash from operations - capex) of $300 million. $360 million of cash won't last long at that burn rate.

There wasn't any specific news sending the stock into freefall, although the post-channel merger buzz for the company has been miserable. I don't know if I've noticed any particular difference in each channel's playlist—this is possibly because most channels seems to hang on to their Sirius staff at the expense of XM's personnel—but no satellite radio subscriber I know has described the change as positive. Even if there wasn't a specific channel a listener mourned the loss of, the entire "change under the cloak of night" channel shift was shady, at best. If people are paying for your product, would it hurt to let them know more than two seconds in advance that a significant change was coming? Instead, I'm sure the company's customer service lines were flooded with complaints and probably cancellations as well. If XM Sirius can survive their stock price and apparently one billion dollars in debt owed this year (ouch), I'll be happy to hang around and suffer through XMU's current obsession with Passion Pit. But I'm not optimistic.

http://www.tuaw.com/2008/11/21/launc...r-coming-soon/
http://www.blogcdn.com/www.tuaw.com/...siriuslove.png
Launch of Sirius XM iPhone app 'StarPlayr' coming soon?
by Steven Sande on Nov 21st 2008 at 3:00PM

Subscribers to Sirius XM satellite radio have reasons to be thankful on Thanksgiving Day next week: it appears that an iPhone app called "StarPlayr" will be coming soon.

There's a thread in the SternFanNetwork forums about receiving Sirius XM on the iPhone, and forum member JJRousseau, who is apparently an employee of developer NiceMac, LLC, pointed everyone to the StarPlayr website. StarPlayr currently makes a Mac player and is hard at work on the iPhone app. JJRousseau noted in the forum that "[t]he iPhone is our first priority, but it has taken longer than expected getting licensing worked out for the iPhone Client. As soon as the business side of iPhone version is worked out, you'll be able to purchase StarPlayr for iPhone at the App Store."

The feature set sounds impressive, with Sirius and/or XM content streams, album art, iTunes WiFi purchase links, lyrics, and favorites lists. No release date or pricing has been set for the app at this time.

They did it again and tanked SIRI on the final two trades of the day right at the close.....

There was a trade that went through at 16:00:07 for 2,409,364 shares @ .1402 and another one at 16:00:33 for 300 shares @.14.....there were several AH trades already happening by the time it went through! WTF?

SIRI closed at .14 or unchanged for the day on volume of about 62.3 million with the DOW up 494 points....

How do they do this day after day?

Is this legal?

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081121/ny48066.html?.v=1

Press Release Source: SIRIUS XM Radio

World-Class Chefs Take Listener Calls, Offer Tips and Tricks on Martha Stewart Living Radio's 'Thanksgiving Hotline,' Exclusively on SIRIUS XM Radio
Friday November 21, 3:59 pm ET

Listen to more than 30 top chefs and entertaining experts live on Martha Stewart's exclusive radio channel for 30 hours over three days

Stellar lineup of experts, including Martha Stewart, Emeril Lagasse, Mario Batali, Lidia Bastianich, Isaac Mizrahi, Serena Bass and Tom Valenti, help America prepare the biggest meal of the year

NEW YORK, Nov. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) today announced that more than 30 top chefs and entertaining experts will participate in the Martha Stewart Living Radio "Thanksgiving Hotline." For 30 hours over three days, these chefs and experts will broadcast tips, tricks, recipes, and kitchen secrets, while answering questions from hotline callers and tackling holiday quandaries ranging from the traditional to the unexpected.

The Martha Stewart Living Radio "Thanksgiving Hotline" will air November 24, 25 and 26, 2008, from 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. ET, exclusively on Martha Stewart Living Radio, SIRIUS channel 112 and XM channel 157. The "Thanksgiving Hotline" will be rebroadcast in its entirety beginning at 7:00 pm ET each day on both SIRIUS and XM.

For this annual satellite radio special, more than 30 of the world's leading chefs and entertaining experts - including Martha Stewart, Emeril Lagasse, Mario Batali, Lidia Bastianich, Isaac Mizrahi, Serena Bass and Tom Valenti - will join the Martha Stewart Living Radio hosts to reveal their juiciest Thanksgiving tips and personally answer questions and offer advice.

This extraordinary "Thanksgiving Hotline" offers SIRIUS XM listeners a rare chance to hear these culinary legends divulge their favorite Thanksgiving recipes for the main course, hors d'oeuvres, variations on the traditional turkey meal, desserts, wine pairings and specialty cocktails (including non-alcoholic suggestions) designed for the holidays and much more. They will also share their personal Thanksgiving memories and family traditions.

Martha and her team of Thanksgiving experts will also supply useful tips for cooking on a budget and share simple yet elegant suggestions to spruce up the table and spread holiday cheer.