SIRI Intraday Thread: Friday March 20th / Weekend Edition

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Originally Posted by bdp

At the current rate, I would say that we will close around .29 today and open at .27 or less on Monday.

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Please explain how you arrived at those figures.

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Originally Posted by dmo2424

Tayler posted an analyst upgrade in "News" on the front page of SiriusBuzz with short term .50 cent price target and long term $1.25. We'll see if that helps any and may trigger more upgrades as well. Is this Miller Tabak guy reputable?

Whoever says us longs have thick skin I think is right. I actually in a way feel like my upbringing as a diehard Red Sox fan (long long before they won their world series) has led me to almost expect the negativity and fatalism that comes with SIRI. But like the Red Sox winning (2!) championships, our day with SIRI will come! hopefully not the equivalent of 86 years the sox had to wait :)

but good news on the analyst upgrades, no?

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Most people in the market long enough dont even read analyist opinions. They are used more to lead you away from a stock, or justify a price manipulation, than anything useful. .50 cent short term price target is terrible news, if you would think it mattered. Thats only .08 cents off the price we hit a few days ago. Only huge news moves this stock.
Daytraders might use them for quick jumps, if they feel the analist in question has had an effect on the stock in the past. Downgrades can affect a stock for like a day or so, thats about it. Upgrades same thing. I like to buy spec stocks to all be in a sell position, and the price target being lowered recently as well. This means a long road ahead for the stock, but maximum upside.

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Originally Posted by mogami

Hi, Did you know that with all the new deals on new cars they are actually getting cheaper to buy then many used cars?
9 million new cars a year is below what is required to replace used cars that go kaput so we will not stay at 9 million auto production for very long.
Already some analysts are saying we will need 14 million new cars built by end of 2009. Within a few years it will go to 20 million a year. The longer we go with these reduced production and sales numbers the higher the number required when we come out. (whatever we lose in 2009 we will make up later)

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I actually saw something about this on the news yesterday. Crazy. Not sure why anyone in their right mind takes a used car over a new car at the same price

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Originally Posted by ShotsII

THx for the extra info JMM.
Oh, plus the share price reads out to 4-decimels for SIRI. I'm sure you'll be able to trade to 4Ds also.

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I am certain of it. I have the app and have used it to trade. Good luck

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Originally Posted by Keysmark

Please explain how you arrived at those figures.

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I am looking at what may be expected according to the trading historical volatility. I may be wrong, but check out your graphs and this will make sense.There are other cases where this stock had the same downturn. I do believe there is a method here.

Something I find fascinating is how much not-so-obvious data some of these guys like relmor can dig up. Others speculating why a stock moves never holds much value for me but it's always great to hear your thoughts on the numbers.

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Originally Posted by jmm232

I am certain of it. I have the app and have used it to trade. Good luck

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JMM, just made my first deposit to TDA. How long does it take for the amount to post so that I can trade with it?

When looking at future auto sales the important data is not current production or sales. What is important is
How many people can afford to buy a car?
Take the number of people who can afford a new car, divide by number of years people who can afford a new car drive that car before replacing and you have your basic number of cars per year.

Currently there are more then 175,000,000 Americans with a job. If only .5 have a job that pays enough to buy a new car you have 87,500,000 people who buy new. If they drive the car 10 years you have 8,750,000 people who buy new each year. So what we have today is people with 10 year old cars buying new ones.

Once people become aware of how cheap new cars are there will not be enough new cars on dealers lots.

Mathematically it is difficult to project less then 9 million per year and really you can't even justify it being that low. It's not money thats preventing auto sales from going up.

Auto sales benefit from snowball effect. (neighbor buys a new car, soon whole block has new car) So once it starts increase in sales will be rapid.

Back from my tour. Very informative. All I will say, is that I can now sleep at night, go out and play in the sun or snow, and keep accumulating shares....

Ignore the stock price. Really.

Mogami,
I hear you. I don't know when... but auto sales will pick up.. and when they do they will break out of this slump with a vengeance.