Thanks Charles, this was starting to worry me. I was thinking about a cocktail and then I realized it was the middle of the day.:D
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I think it will be what you said and a huge drop in the value of dollar (which then leads to hyper-inflation) that will cause the next recession. The reason is I dont think the money can be paid back fast enough from the tarp and other bail outs to stop the value of the dollar from dropping. That along with all the spending that is going on. If the health care and other spending can be stopped then maybe the dollar well not drop to far or fast. To be clear speculaters look at the future and see even though the health plan will not cost anyting in the near future it will in the not to far off future.
P.S. Hey Lloyd that is how the Bush tax cuts could have caused this recession. The government would have had to borrow money for them sending the value of the dollar down and therefore causing hypre-inflation to happen there by causing a recession. Now while some will say the dollar did drop compared to the Euro in 2000 I have to remind people that many economist said that the Euro was way under valued and should be at least 1.20 to the dollar and not 87 cents to the dollar it did not take long for that correction and was mostly there or on its way before the Bush tax cuts where even talked about. There is one fact reguardless while the value of the dollar did fall it did not fall anywhere near what would have been needed to cause hyper-inflation. As proof there were times the Fed was worried about deflation and not inflation. Anyway all that did not happen and why it is ridiculous when people try to blame this recession on Bush or his tax cuts. Recessions are cyclical they will come ilregaurdless the difference is how long and deep they are.
http://www.christiangrantham.com/200...ive-economist/
Schooled again.
For added measure.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...cut-mythology/
For added measure.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/0...de-of-descent/
And this. Anyway you get the picture. I now return you to your regularly scheduled channel. Sorry for the interruption by you know who.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/0...de-of-descent/
Thanks for jumping in Charles. Before I scrolled down I was teary eyed. :(
Where else could I go and get my own customized dog? Where else could
I go and find a bunch of great guys? Where else could I go with my wicked sense of humor and not get booed off? :D
Nowhere else, but here at Sirius Buzz! :)
Thank you for all you do to make this place home to me/us.
Julie
I'm with you on all points. I did "take profit" today, and am taking a close look at SPXU (short ETF). I just don't see how this "masculine" bull rally can continue as it is. It's been amazing.
We all know that Big Ben is an endorsee of "buy and sell". Well in this bull rally, that cost me. I bought FOE at $2.50 and sold at $3.50. Did it again at somehthing like $6 and sold at $8. Today it trades at $9+. Did the same with FLTK, GE and a couple others. In retrospect, had I put a trailing stop loss on my shares, I may have had a 4 bagger on my hands with FOE. The lesson here is not to be one dimensional. There are a lot of ways to "take profit" without leaving money on the table. For a casual investor who has a job, using the trailing stop loss is a great way to manage things without making dozens of trades a day.
investopedia:What Does Trailing Stop Mean?
A stop-loss order set at a percentage level below the market price - for a long position. The trailing stop price is adjusted as the price fluctuates. The trailing stop order can be placed as a trailing stop limit order, or a trailing stop market order.
Also known as a Trailing Stop Order.
Investopedia explains Trailing Stop
This is such a useful tool, yet many fail to use it. Using a trailing stop allows you to let profits run while cutting losses at the same time.
basically means if you buy a stock at $1 , put in a trailing stop at $1.90 (example), if the stock hits $2 then drops to 1.90 your order would execute at market or limit depending on which type you specify.
Google it LOL. Just kidding. You're a good guy Candleman, I wouldn't diss you, but I may confuse you as I'm not an expert either. But I'll try.
A trailing stop loss is order just like any other order (buy, sell, limit....) that you can place on a stock. For example, you buy SIRI at $1.00. Good news comes out that they have actually turned a profit, and the price goes to $2.00. You have a double bagger on your hands and want to protect it, right? So you place a trailing stop loss (to sell) at 20 cents off last, and you make it GTC (good till cancelled). Now you can go have a cocktail. Your sell price will float up with the stock, and the order will execute when the price drops 20 cents from the highest last trade.
So SIRI continues it's climb to $3.00, then Big Ben posts something negative, and the price starts to tank. At $2.80 your order gets executed ($3.00 less 0.20). There are several ways to set the stop 20 - cents, 40 cents... or even %. I've done it several times with good success; though today my stop was too tight and the order executed while the price was still rising. The hard part is getting a gain worth protecting LOL.
Now let's say that Big Ben posted his negative banter when the SP was $2.00, just after you placed the order. Then in this case the SP goes down, and your order gets executed at $1.80.
Up 2.5 cents, almost 4% for the day.
I am loving Sirius Satelite Radio!
Rah, Rah, Rah!
SL and Bass, thanks so much. That is pretty clear and another tool in my bag.
Now, if I could only find those damn Pom-Pom's:D
Big Ben does make a few good points though. Thinking about the down side is not all bad. It pays to be a little defensive right now. Buying into some of those short funds is probably not a really stupid idea. It's a little like an insurance policy.....
But, I'm still wanting to wave my Pom-Pom's at him!
I will do in one post what it took lloyd Handwerker (a dumbass) several to do. Now I say dumb ass because if you knew what you where talking about it should not take several post to explain yourself.
"Schooled again", first of all I would like you to link to the thread where you think you even schooled me the first time. I am sure most would disagree. sinse you wont though I will you put up information on an old arguement that doest not refute what I say about what did not cause this recession. and I already tore you apart on, as proof here it is:
http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2580
Then your links seem to leave out some important information like THE TECH BUBBLE BURST just as Bush came into office. Now while I already explained in the link above how the recession (that was given to him by Clinton) and 911 attacks wiped out more then 2 trillion from all of the numbers (1.2 to 1.5 trillion from the 911 attacks alone) I know you guys would like to think 911 never happen or would like us to just forget about it, but yes it did. Now I will show just a few examples of how the tech bubble bursting sucked at least as much from the economy and all the number you like to quote. CSCO went from 234 to 6, Yahoo went from 200 to 2, BEAS went from 167 to 1, and the list gos on and on and on and on. I wonder what the GDP numbers will be for Obama with the market crash.
Now I think it is Ok for the words "Schooled again" Just remember it means nothing if it does not come from the right person.
Premarket is looking very good this morning at 71.5 cents on lighter volume than we saw yesterday morning.
It sure is nice to see us testing and hopefully holding the 70 cent mark.