How high could SIRI spike on tuesday and in the coming days?

Whats the duke saying about Tues?

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Bu...30&mid=4049998


just so you know i think duke is fos, if u look at alot of his older post's he has been wrong as hell, now he's claiming he was right bout this phantom gap fill to .8, well there was no gap being filled it was some1 screaming bk and it didnt go to .8 it went to .3, as well as what he says about siri thinking its own stock is worth, total bs, anyway.

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Originally Posted by Newman

Whats the duke saying about Tues?

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Far as I can tell he is a no show and the crowd is spitting on him, lol, they want his head!

Everything that has gone wrong is his fault now, haha

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Originally Posted by Siriusowner

Because that would mean that SIRI would be evaluated similarly to Google, Amazon and/or Apple.

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Those beasts had to start some where.

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Originally Posted by Newman

SiriusOwner, let me ask you this: When is the last time that this company actually traded based on fundamentals other than debt? Answer: NEVER.

This stock is currently priced for bankruptcy and nothing else. I agree that Sirius is an underperformer and will continue to be. Which number is it that most people use for valuation for earnings? Would it be EBITDA? If it is, Sirius is currently trading at 1x Estimated 2010 EBITDA (600 million est. EBITDA devided by 4.5 billion shares = 0.13) Regardless, as I said, the stock is priced for BK. Once BK is off the table (even temporarily, if May is not handled yet), the stock WILL spike. It more than doubled when the initial echostar news came out, and you don't think it will spike higher than that on this news? (Again, granted, we do not know the terms at this time)

You keep mentioning the fact that Sirius has yet to make a profit. While you are 100% correct, you also fail to mention (or fail to see?) the fact that they will be FCF even INCLUDING capex for 2009. I know FCF is not profit, but cash is king. As of NOW, Sirius should have absolutely no loss in FCF if their projections are correct which means that they are inching closer and closer to profitability.

As I stated earlier in this thread, I do not expect to see $1 anytime soon. I don't think December debt will be handled anytime soon, and we will not see $1 until after that is taken care of, and then only if the economy has started to turn around. You mention that it may make it back to premerger levels in 1-2 years? I think that may be a bit optimistic myself...

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It has actually traded on its ability to fulfill its obligations, not just debt...And as a matter of fact, not being able to fulfill its obligations is due to its weak fundamentals... No EPS, No EP, No cash, large debt, etc...

You are correct, FCF is not profit but the perception that they can generate profit right now is basically null. Cash is king today, but what cash are you talking about ?

50% or even 100% spike in one day, I agree... Not 700% or 1000%... that will take time.

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Originally Posted by Demian

Any free cash flow at all is strong compared to the burning of cash this company has done in the past! With the share price down in the pennies and the company switching from burning money to becoming profitable, the perception should change dramatically - especially with bankruptcy off the table. Is Mel under promising so as to over deliver? It's a very strong possibility IMHO. Wasn't the reason the stocked tanked down from over $1.00 to the current penny levels because of the '09 debt uncertainty and bankruptcy fears? If those are removed from the equation, shouldn't the stock be able to recover back to over $1.00? Are there not benefits from the merger? Have those benefits been valued in the current share price or has the '09 debt and the bankruptcy fears over shadowed everything that has been positive? With the clouds taken away, how bright might the sun shine?

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I guess it comes down to the definition of "strong FCF" is. Also while the debt did bring the PPS down it will still be there just in another form and/or pushed back. Yes bankruptcy fears also did its job on the PPS at .5. There are other things that were included (as said already by I think Newman) like the bad economy and the credit freeze. So while there should be some kind of pop in the PPS I just dont think it will be as high as many think. I really dont want to have to get into the same argument about there not being any short squeez after the merger. Learn from history so you dont repeat it. As I said before, I said those things before (about no short sqeeze) because I dont want to get peoples hopes up, then it does not happen and what did we get all the pissing and moaning at the company and Mel.

P.S. I would like nothing more then for the PPS to go as high as some seem to think. The thing that keeps me sane is that I dont think it will and I stay grounded so when it does not happen, NO WORRIES.