SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 2/16/09

The other problem I have with the sub numbers is that consumers didn't have to deal with as much confusion due to the ongoing merger. If I'm not mistaken, the merger was still pending at the end of 4th Quarter 07 and the numbers were still decent. Sure the economy is bad, but like I said before, I just don't buy 150K subs. Although I've been wrong before...

On another note, does anyone know of any charts that represent where the majority of subs are located throughout the country? I'm in the Northeast and it really seems like every single person I know has SiriusXM. I'm just curious if there are areas in the country where satellite radio isn't catching on.

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Originally Posted by Dustyoden

150K new subs is unrealistic in my opinion. I’m basing this off of people I casually know through work who bought Sirius (not XM, which is kind of scary) for X-Mas. These are people who I would never think would buy this product and especially after market. It was only 6 different people but I only work with about 50. The question to me isn’t going to be if enough new subs were purchased. The question is did few enough people cancel subs with the channel switching to keep the churn in-line.
Let's be honest. If churn goes up significantly the street is not going to care if it is the economy or canceled channels. They are going to say Sirius XM is no longer a product people want to keep and continue to blackball this company. Fair or unfair? Doesn’t matter.

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Sirius/XM did the big channel changes around the middle of November - also being the middle of Q4. This was a smart move. Any cancelations would then be softened and absorbed by what is traditionally both Sirius and XM's strongest period of the year - going into the holiday shopping season. Remember that the combined company was really pushing "Best of" during this time. This would also dampen any revenue loss due to cancelations while also giving subscribers access to new content and another reason not to cancel.

Many subs I personally know listen to their Sirius/XM radios the most around the holidays for the Christmas music. Not a good time to cancel for people on the edge.....

I think Q4 numbers will be much better than expected........too much doom and gloom.

SIRI is sitting right on it's 50 DMA......will it offer support? I think so......

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIR...d=p89775725136

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Originally Posted by Demian

SIRI is sitting right on it's 50 DMA......will it offer support? I think so......

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIR...d=p89775725136

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Jerky action typical of a stock bottoming. Extreme low tested, longer term support holding. These techincal points, plus a strong quarter,combined with Malones money, credit, and the s & p rating upgrade SHOULD be enough for it to move higher, and hold, for the first time since the merger. If it doesnt, then there is no explanation, other than naked shorting.

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Originally Posted by Demian

Sirius/XM did the big channel changes around the middle of November - also being the middle of Q4. This was a smart move. Any cancelations would then be softened and absorbed by what is traditionally both Sirius and XM's strongest period of the year - going into the holiday shopping season. Remember that the combined company was really pushing "Best of" during this time. This would also dampen any revenue loss due to cancelations while also giving subscribers access to new content and another reason not to cancel.

Many subs I personally know listen to their Sirius/XM radios the most around the holidays for the Christmas music. Not a good time to cancel for people on the edge.....

I think Q4 numbers will be much better than expected........too much doom and gloom.

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Demian, agreed with the timing. When I first heard about the channel shifts I thought this was going to hurt much worse. As for the bottom line for Sirius you are spot on. However, I really worry about the churn. That has been a very bright spot for Sirius and I would hate to see that go up. Doom/Gloom? Maybe, but realistically I can't see how it would stay at 1.7%. I hope I am just over-valueing the importance of mainainting this low churn

this stock should move up, but we have to wait for the mm's to allow it too.

Lots of buzz in the external bulletin boards today... highlights are:

1. buzz about NiceMac's latest posting showing 4 platforms and the new StarPlayr apps.
2. rumors back and forth over 4Q earnings anouncements and potential consequences
3. at&t - cell phone revenue......
4. Howard TV
5. Cross-loading/packaging deals with DirecTV/SIRI
6. At least some pure delusion from those whose averages are above $1.00

Hope the rest of you are having an entertaining day. I now turn over the buzz to you more researched SIRI investors... I need another drink

:D

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Originally Posted by imromo24

My Circuit city in Taylor, MI was wiped out of XMP3. Had a couple Inno's, and INV2's. Maybe a couple of those things you put in the trunk. But I would more or less say they were wiped out. This was about a week or so ago. The display was "strategically" placed where people had to wait to check out (the line was loooong)

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The circuit city by me, both Sirius and XM radios have been gone already a week ago! They had more XM radios(15) the Sirius (5)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dustyoden

150K new subs is unrealistic in my opinion. I’m basing this off of people I casually know through work who bought Sirius (not XM, which is kind of scary) for X-Mas. These are people who I would never think would buy this product and especially after market. It was only 6 different people but I only work with about 50. The question to me isn’t going to be if enough new subs were purchased. The question is did few enough people cancel subs with the channel switching to keep the churn in-line.
Let's be honest. If churn goes up significantly the street is not going to care if it is the economy or canceled channels. They are going to say Sirius XM is no longer a product people want to keep and continue to blackball this company. Fair or unfair? Doesn’t matter.

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I got 6 people to sign up in the 4th qtr!

It just occured to me that they were giving away 3 months free for anyone who wanted to cancel, so maybe they were able to control churn that way.