SIRI IntraWEEK Thread 08-03-09

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Originally Posted by john

No CAPEX for now. If I recall correctly XMSR didnt finish (deffered payments) paying off the last one for almost 2 years after they launched it. That is why they had no FCF positive in the 4th quarter of 2007 after having almost 30 million in the 4th quarter of 2006. Siri was in about the same position with FCF in 2006 and had 80 million in FCF of 4th quarter of 2007. The reason XMSR gave as to why they had a bad FCF number was that they had defered much of its CAPEX till the 4th quarter of 2007. So excuse me if I am a little reserved on what is still left to pay off when it comes to CAPEX. I am just saying that kind of shit comes out of nowhere all the time.

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Agree John,but the next 2 are XM sats and in 2008 report XM took 472mil charge for Sats...not crazy about losing 24mil from prepaid in launch cost's to bk tho..

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Originally Posted by goodlucksirius

anyone predict the close price for today? Will it be 0.40?

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IMHO,we will not drop more than 20% from high of .55,was higher in intra and AH,but i discount that,so looking for only low of .44 to .45,then slow rise up to .75 by end of Oct,conservatively..

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Originally Posted by Big Ben

Does anyone follow macroeconomic trends....they all suck. Back to school will be good for target and wally world...all other retailers are going to say good bye to the their sales. Unenjoyment is going to hit 10-11%+, in many areas its already there, the next few qtrs are going to blow! Christmas is going to be the death nail for many retailers. Our economy is screwed! I won't even mention housing or foreclosures. Our economy is 70% consumers and we buy most of our garbage from China....so if you want a good play short China, FXP. Short the dow DOG. Short the financials FAZ. Short everything. When this market cracks it is going to be ugly.

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Why ? S&P 500 trailing P/E is about 60 which is as bad as it could get but it has being trending down and remember it is the trailing P/E.

The S&P 500 projected P/E is about 17. That's the future... Remember, the lower the number the better, and if it ever gets to around 15, then we will be just fine.

P/E is a leading indicator. I always like to see a lower projected than the trailing.

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Originally Posted by Big Ben

Does anyone follow macroeconomic trends....they all suck. Back to school will be good for target and wally world...all other retailers are going to say good bye to the their sales. Unenjoyment is going to hit 10-11%+, in many areas its already there, the next few qtrs are going to blow! Christmas is going to be the death nail for many retailers. Our economy is screwed! I won't even mention housing or foreclosures. Our economy is 70% consumers and we buy most of our garbage from China....so if you want a good play short China, FXP. Short the dow DOG. Short the financials FAZ. Short everything. When this market cracks it is going to be ugly.

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Ben, I am a retailer.

Our overall sales are down about 6% this year. But, that still puts us about 10% ahead of 1997. We sell only American made products and our customers love us for that effort.

Unemployment is improving. In other words, it's not rising as fast as it was. We are near the end of this recession.

You need to have a little more faith in your fellow American.

Look at Ford, Bank Of America, Citi Bank, GE, JetBlue, these are strong American companies that are recovering one way or another.

John McCain didn't know we were in a recession last fall. People like him don't know we're in a recovery now.

Short all you want, but the profit will be there for the longs.

That's just an opinion of an American who sell things made in America to other Americans:)

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

TS: "we could potentially see the the subscriber count decrease by about 300,000 to 340,000."

SIRIUS XM ended the second quarter 2009 with 18,413,435 total subscribers, a decrease of 1% from the second quarter 2008 pro forma total subscribers of 18,576,830 and a decrease of 185,999 from the first quarter 2009 subscribers of 18,599,434.

300,000 + 340,000/2 = 320,000

320,000-185,999=134,000

134,000/320,000 = 42%

or 320,000 delta 185,999 = 41.88%

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When I was talking about being 13,000 off I was talking about me. I was however a hundred thousand to the low side in the 1st quarter. The point being it is all guess work in the end.

Im in the odd position of rooting for massive stock price drop so i can buy back in lol

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

from 8/1/09:

"For instance, Ive already sold all my over core, and a tad of my core(newer increased core position from june), now Im READY to start buying back. My first buy target is .41. .40, and .39. I will save more for a lower spike."

sorry, but I got a dime bet riding on this with pluc . . lol

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That started my terrible run. Those sells at .45 to .42. Never pulled back. I tried to make it up daytrading larger amounts.

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Originally Posted by candleman

Ben, I am a retailer.

Our overall sales are down about 6% this year. But, that still puts us about 10% ahead of 1997. We sell only American made products and our customers love us for that effort.

Unemployment is improving. In other words, it's not rising as fast as it was. We are near the end of this recession.

You need to have a little more faith in your fellow American.

Look at Ford, Bank Of America, Citi Bank, GE, JetBlue, these are strong American companies that are recovering one way or another.

John McCain didn't know we were in a recession last fall. People like him don't know we're in a recovery now.

Short all you want, but the profit will be there for the longs.

That's just an opinion of an American who sell things made in America to other Americans:)

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Nice post candleman!

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Originally Posted by jonpluc@aol.com

Im in the odd position of rooting for massive stock price drop so i can buy back in lol

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I will buy again at .39. Who said it wont happen? That guy is wrong. .40 I will rebuy at too. Im holding buys for no higher than .42. I will wait for it.

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Originally Posted by goodlucksirius

anyone predict the close price for today? Will it be 0.40?

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No chance in hell.

Likely .53 or higher - also keep in mind we will have announcement of the Senate passing Cash for Clunkers today also.

Worst behind Sirius, they already improved quarter over quarter and being in the middle of what looks like a stronger 3rd Q and likely blockbuster 4th.