Market Watch for week of 8/17/2009

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Dr Dave, what did you think about today's movement on spng? I got a little worried when i saw .137 as the low, but i think that was a fluke because i don't even see it on my charts.

I'm trying to read how the action is compared to the moving averages and technically they don't look great. I think I know better because I've done tons of DD...maybe im over thinking and down too close, let me know what you thought.



Daily Update on SPNG (by me): The news seemed promising because they did $6.9MM orders first week and a half of July, $4.1MM in the second week and finished with $23.5MM for the month. A weekly average of 5.8. They did $18MM in June. Now they have $13.5 for the first half of August, current average for august is $6.75MM. They are averaging for 6.5 weeks $7.38MM per week, although increased from 4.5 to 5.75 from june to august.

At 52 weeks a year that comes out to $383MM. Knowing the sales are cyclical and not knowing how many are reorders...yet factoring that they are still growing. Lets say that current performance times 50%...thats $191MM for 2010. at 17% profits thats 32MM earnings divided by 722MM shares equals .04 EPS, times 12 P/E we get .53 a share?

That to me seems very conservative.

Jus' spit ballin here anyone can chime in on my silly math, im new to this still...Tyler maybe if you can read it (its just fast talking on a computer so i did no editing) if you can read it, let me know if my spng calcs are right or how wrong they are.

thanks

EDIT: I read the profit % was 17 to 20% in 10Q i think.

PS. They are also looking into share buyback that could up the result by 30%

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Hi - Little busy at work here, my boss arrives pretty shortly, will respond in more detail later.

The price for SPNG is in the pennant I drew, I'm not worried, unless it closes south of that line. Not too concerned about intraday. If there are 2 closes south, then the bet's likely off for me for the time being, but will have to take a closer look here later in the afternoon evening.

Regarding moving averages... I completely scrapped using these for pennies, at least for the ones that we are looking at. I'll explain later, it has to to do with artifacts in the math that are dependent on which longer term phase each of the stocks are in. If you notice, I've removed them from the penny setting I have for these stocks. All other indicators, I've cut the time periods in half, but I also give them little weight. This is just me of course, but as I learn more and more as we go along, I think support and resistance in its different forms, patterns, wave impulses, and candles have more importance. That's just me though.

SPNG pennant for today...

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/SPNG.png

p.s. I need to take down a bunch of stuff from the web, at some point, I'll get my own web account...

zoinks - looks like the other indicators aren't cut in half on this chart, have to reupdate that list of stocks.

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

my spec portfolio is all red -- except for the 2 JPM options contracts i bought this afternoon. and they are up after commissions a total of $2.50!!!!

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LOL,

I didn't realize you were in with me. I'm here at work, and decided to focus on work and not posting, since I had things covered, except ASFX, slipped my mind to get out.

Well, we bought in after the drop, so its more risky. But ok to learn for the first trade, its peanuts win or lose, and why I picked these cheaper contracts for the first trade. You can see the last sizes were 10 contracts, which has the better commissions ratio.. ie. you have the main commission charge 1 time, then the smaller contract fee 10 times for a trade like that.

But now that you have the ticker loaded, you can see that for JPM's 4.05% drop, that option gained 53.45% today. So you are looking at roughly 11 fold leverage today. Which is a way if to actually book profits on short moves.

I got a little carried away with the hasbro stuff last night, took me a while to crank it out... I'll do my best to crank out some stuff on the options thread, but first, I'll post stuff about today's trade here.

Regarding the target - we have a few choices, since these are the sept contracts, which is some time away, the premium loss isn't significant, I'll show how to figure that out to the best of my knowledge, so we can hold these thru the week if needed, not sure if there will be a short squeeze, as this downturn was anticipated a while back, and august contracts expire this friday. But we will be watching JPM more than we watch the actual options contract. Looks like these biggie run up stocks closed with solid red candles, so we'll make a couple of JPM price targets, if they bust thru, we keep holding. We can also watch the 9/39 EMA crosses on the 15, 60 min charts.

We'll look at what the biggies say tonight, and if there is continued downturn, we'll keep holding. If the price moves sideways after a down turn, we cash out.

Whats up guys!

Been busy today......

NSMG had a good run up to from .02 to .027 and closes at .019 could of been a good day trade I was gonna do it..but spent the powder on 33k shares of BEHL instead and closes green...

That SYMW ran pretty good today at first I thought was another pump and dump opened at .0011 and closed green at .0018 with 1255749066 trades...
Im in with 300k shares at .001 so im good on that one....

QASP I had a day trade set up for 1/2 of my 200k shares at .04...those are the ones I got at .033 friday it got close to .039 but no cigar, i plan on trying to work that half and keep the 100k shares at .01 as my core long term.... and if trying to trade the 2nd block dont work out I'll keep them and see what happens at the end of the month...but over all adv on all of them are .0215 and closed at .034 so im in good shape anyway.....

you guys know the details on EVFL, IFSL and MGLG so i wont repeat anything you dont already know...

ASFX I sorta burried right now with 500k shares Im gonna leave them alone and say a couple of Our Fathers every now and then and hope one day they will turn around.....

SIRI is heading in the right direction but today manage to close red but Im up over all 20k so im good........

Thats my entire hand which I feel pretty good with and I think with patience they will do something........what who knows but something...:cool:

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Originally Posted by Los Tiburones

Was just going to say that I could imagine some lazy overweight guy, scratching his belly and cranking out emails, thinking to himself "Man, this is too easy ... gullible minions! Go buy a couple million more shares suckers!"

You never know ...

Tree, is that true about covering 5 different company's?

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Yeah Tib, I was searching around for her, cuz i wanted to get an idea what she looked like, but i couldnt really find her. Im not on any of the social networking sites tho, so im not sure if you could find her on there maybe?? ANYWAY, I just entered "karen willoughby investors relations" into google. I dont remember exactly what came up, and if they were recent or not, but i was really surprised at the number of companies.

Bass - first target will be $39 for JPM, it has price support and fib support there. That should give you a ~40% gain at $2.20/contract.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/JPM-D.png


On the 60 min, we have a channel to break, maybe expect a stall, but indicators look like the downturn is in effect..

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/JPM-60.png

Weekly showing a price support at $39

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/JPM-W.png

Partner GS showing a mini head and shoulder's top... lines more clear on this one, and contracts more pricey... perhaps the better play, but oh well... measured target is $170-160=$10... so $160-$10=$150, which matches price support pretty much on the money...

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/GS.png

Anyhoo - if this guy breaks down to the pattern target/support line, JPM should follow.

Interpretations should follow previous report... (plus, need to get to work)

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/HAS1.png

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/HAS2.png

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/HAS3.png
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/HAS4.png

HAS price currently linked to toy index, and SP500. Just to note, the current peak on the SP500 matches the price resistance of Nov 2008, the 38.2% FIB, and the 1000 round number. Funny how that works isn't it? Actually, the Nasdaq turned at gap price resistance, the 61.8% fib, and the 2000 round number. Creepy... eh? <-- Canadian for Sean

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/HAS5.png
http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/HAS6.png

all i can say is..... the Giants are officially the best team in the NFL this season... again ---- GO BIG BLUE

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Originally Posted by Sworntwofun

Whats up guys!

Been busy today......

NSMG had a good run up to from .02 to .027 and closes at .019 could of been a good day trade I was gonna do it..but spent the powder on 33k shares of BEHL instead and closes green...

That SYMW ran pretty good today at first I thought was another pump and dump opened at .0011 and closed green at .0018 with 1255749066 trades...
Im in with 300k shares at .001 so im good on that one....

QASP I had a day trade set up for 1/2 of my 200k shares at .04...those are the ones I got at .033 friday it got close to .039 but no cigar, i plan on trying to work that half and keep the 100k shares at .01 as my core long term.... and if trying to trade the 2nd block dont work out I'll keep them and see what happens at the end of the month...but over all adv on all of them are .0215 and closed at .034 so im in good shape anyway.....

you guys know the details on EVFL, IFSL and MGLG so i wont repeat anything you dont already know...

ASFX I sorta burried right now with 500k shares Im gonna leave them alone and say a couple of Our Fathers every now and then and hope one day they will turn around.....

SIRI is heading in the right direction but today manage to close red but Im up over all 20k so im good........

Thats my entire hand which I feel pretty good with and I think with patience they will do something........what who knows but something...:cool:

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nice... you're doing great!!!!

Here's the nasdaq...

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/comp.png

I lost my sp

Tony- i got a volume alert from hototc.com on SYWM tonight

hey dave is that 1 half of a head and shoulders pattern on the nasdaq chart?

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Originally Posted by stang3O2

Tony- i got a volume alert from hototc.com on SYWM tonight

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Cool and Thanks Stang...when you posted Terry's picks I checked them all out and this was the only one that I liked....and its going ok so far....

We will see what tomorrow brings... Good Luck Bro....Tony:cool:

SYMW - SYMPOWERCO CORP (OTC)

Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change
08/17/09 0.0012 0.0019 0.0010 0.0018 +0.0007 1219814625 +63.64%


Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Sell

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Hold
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 346923906

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 218457969

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 121900813

Overall Average: 80% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

0.0018 0.0007 0.0016 0.0025

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

hey dave is that 1 half of a head and shoulders pattern on the nasdaq chart?

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Good eye - it very well could be. That's what you want to be able to do, catch classic patterns before they happen, so you can anticipate - something Rashcke has said is very key to her success. That and seeing them at odd angles, and comparing related charts... can see the mini GS one quite clearly, but JPM has a slanted one. If we were talking about the stuff thursday, we could have used the GS one which was more complete, to set the trade for JPM... as JPM had a little upswing, which lowered the price of the contract, and given a tighter stop (going in friday, and using the top of the shoulder, which was thursday's high for a stop).

When I made one of my first "on my own" options trades on GOOG - I was only looking at one of the patterns that formed, and the price shot thru in the wrong direction, so I thought it was a fluke, and still wasn't thinking of using stops.... later, as I started losing my money, I drew every line possible on that chart, and every pattern I thought could develop, and found there were 3 patterns in the same area, and the price basically hit the outermost trendline - costly mistake that could have been avoided if I did that up front or used proper stops.

LOL - here it is...

I tried to play a put - things were still bearish then... the entry was the candle marked by the green line... I was using the "normal" blue I use to mark a symmetrical triangle, I expected that little red candle would be reversal candle on the line.

Later, I found an inverted head and shoulders (black, text is color coded for pattern), megaphone bottom (purplish blue), break of a trendline (cyan), and a channel (purple). You can see that the price rocketed to the megaphone and channel lines and held for a while, then popped out a little. Now, my stop in hindsight on a short term trade would have been the following day, but I was following an intermediate term trader at the time, who would have held on that, thinking its a one day head fake of the symmetrical triangle... by the following day, as you had a breakout of the head and shoulders and trendline, it was a massive loss. It wasn't even worth stopping out at that point, lol, as GOOG contracts are pricey, so the contract was much further out of the money... I think I was going for the next expiration, so I was totally screwed. You can also see for the previous 2 downturns in that pattern, I marked the turnaround in the upper indicators with a dashed red line... that wasn't happening for my entry. Man that was ugly!

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri9/GOOG.png

dave whats the odds jpm hits 32.50 ... if it folows the gs pattern. it would be a nice payoff for us, huh

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

dave whats the odds jpm hits 32.50 ... if it folows the gs pattern. it would be a nice payoff for us, huh

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If the head and shoulders form like you anticipate, then it surely can... we have about 4 weeks though, our contract expires on the 17th. As we get closer, we will start to lose money each day, so closer to then, if its slowing down, we'd have to skip out (though the daily loss will be much slower if we get below $40 - explanation below)... that's the tricky part. But we will calculate it out with some examples of different contracts. I more meant this to be a quicky so you can see how it trades like a stock, but have to take the ask to get in, etc.

Now if we took the december contracts, I'd be more likely to hold. Not much decay, and you can see how the premium works...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=JPM&m=2009-09
JPMUH $40 strike close at $1.78 or $178/contract in reality

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=JPM&m=2009-12
JPMHX $40 strike close at $3.70 or $370/contract in reality

See the extra time costs $200/contract for those extra months

Look at August's contract for $40 strike, it costs $51/contract at the end of today.

If the price of JPM doesn't move tomorrow, I can see that one being worth $40 or something.

The other thing to consider is, once (or rather "if") JPM goes under $40, we will get an extra kick, as the contracts will then be in the money, and worth exercising to someone... ie. the price hits $38, then someone can (including you), sell 100 shares to the guy who sold the contract at $40, when they are worth $38. So that often times kicks the price up a little, and also once in the money, the time decay becomes minor. I'll show you that later.

But I hope you can see that say we do get a 30% gain this week, or say we did the trade friday, and were up 50%, it would take you weeks or maybe months to get that trading the stock, and you'd have to put in way more money to get the same gain. Likewise, the most you can lose is the contract price and the first commission if things went bad. Of course, if you went in big, the loss could be really bad.

Think if you had 1000 shares of GS though back before it dropped like a rock... if you had a protective put - say something with an expiration months out, you would put a fraction of money up for it, and good lord, I'd actually like to know how much that put would have been worth once that stock started dropping 50-80% a day. Let's just say, you wouldn't have been fearing going home to your wife or jumping off a bridge cause you lost $100K. That's just another use for them.

Likewise, if you fear earnings reports, or closing of a gap - see GRMN today closed the gap, an extra $50-$200 for a put would have likely covered the loss, and hopefully after gap closure, like for PCLN back in 2007, you could have then been on your merry way, less stress for that long position you don't want taxes on. Just have to know the stock I guess.