Total net subscriber loss for Q1 2009 predictions

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

The used cars is not rocket science Tyler,but saying it's an accounting nightmare is unacceptable..They have automobile dealer associations for regions and national,you make the deal with those Assn. and not the weasel little corner guys..dealer gets 3 months of premiums and customer gets activated at the dealership for free 3 month trial..SiriusXM gets customer's info to help it convert to self paying..

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I agree. Million ways to do it, but I still have not had a call from Mel. Im still waiting. heres a few of them
1. Give the customer a coupon. A simple coupon. It has a code. If that customer redeems the coupon(1 month free sat radio, etc...) the DEALER gets $10. The DEALER can doe out the money how they want. If the DEALER advertises this free month of sat radio, they DEALER will help sales. Give me 2 mintues alone in an owner of any car lot, and ill walk out with one less coupon book.

2. A simple ad campaign. All you have to do is send in a copy of your invoice proving you bought the car within 2 months, that ALREADY had a sat radio installed(simple check of the car report should verify this) and you get 2 months free sat radio..
You know i was going to write more, but i really dont want too. Its giving me a stomach ache. All the ideas this company doesnt do makes me want to puke sometimes. They will in time, I know though, Im patient, but it makes me made to write it out....
I have a hundred more trust me.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

I agree. Million ways to do it, but I still have not had a call from Mel. Im still waiting. heres a few of them
1. Give the customer a coupon. A simple coupon. It has a code. If that customer redeems the coupon(1 month free sat radio, etc...) the DEALER gets $10. The DEALER can doe out the money how they want. If the DEALER advertises this free month of sat radio, they DEALER will help sales. Give me 2 mintues alone in an owner of any car lot, and ill walk out with one less coupon book.

2. A simple ad campaign. All you have to do is send in a copy of your invoice proving you bought the car within 2 months, that ALREADY had a sat radio installed(simple check of the car report should verify this) and you get 2 months free sat radio..
You know i was going to write more, but i really dont want too. Its giving me a stomach ache. All the ideas this company doesnt do makes me want to puke sometimes. They will in time, I know though, Im patient, but it makes me made to write it out....
I have a hundred more trust me.

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The key is avoiding the huge spiffs that were paid out in the past and brought high subscriber aqisition costs. Knowing what a retailer makes on a radio, I can tell you that it is only through substantial volume that they make money.

The deal with carmax is pretty straight forward, and carmax has the organization to make a deal with them worth while.

The factory installed satellite radios leave the dealer out of the mix in terms of getting cash, etc. The company would like to keep it that way if possible. Imagine car salesmen "pushing" satellite radio so they can make a couple of extra bucks. You would have a virtually uncontrolled sales force, and that is never good. Imagine the complaints.

A coupon and dealing directly with the consumer saves a spiff, and allows the company to better control the process.

The reason you see certified programs is because the manufacturer becomes involved again. This keeps the dealer out of the loop financially.

I am not making excuses for the compay. I am just pointing out the hurdles that exist and have to be contemplated. The key is doing programs that have the best chances of generating a return.

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Originally Posted by TSavery

The key is avoiding the huge spiffs that were paid out in the past and brought high subscriber aqisition costs. Knowing what a retailer makes on a radio, I can tell you that it is only through substantial volume that they make money.

The deal with carmax is pretty straight forward, and carmax has the organization to make a deal with them worth while.

The factory installed satellite radios leave the dealer out of the mix in terms of getting cash, etc. The company would like to keep it that way if possible. Imagine car salesmen "pushing" satellite radio so they can make a couple of extra bucks. You would have a virtually uncontrolled sales force, and that is never good. Imagine the complaints.

A coupon and dealing directly with the consumer saves a spiff, and allows the company to better control the process.

The reason you see certified programs is because the manufacturer becomes involved again. This keeps the dealer out of the loop financially.

I am not making excuses for the compay. I am just pointing out the hurdles that exist and have to be contemplated. The key is doing programs that have the best chances of generating a return.

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Good point. I see the problems with number 1. But not number 2. Why do I have to go to the bathroom all of a sudden......:D
Nothing is stopping them from simply bypassing the dealer completely. Then go right to the consumer. A small , low cost ad campaign on used car internet sites, used car magazines, a few radio spots, maybe even...Sit down Tyler.. A commerical or two. Send simple notices to dealers explainging the process if the customer has any questions, period. or dont, who cares. But the point is, the dealer knowing this guy might be buying a used car simply to get a free sub to sat radio isnt going to happen. but TELLING YOUR CUSTOMER how to get something for free, as it is in the car already, might make that customer RETURN. their is no excuse. none. period. dont care about their dealer deals, dont go through a dealer than if they are having problems. they have direct contact to the world. they have radios sitting dormant in thousands of cars. you do the math. it costs zero dollars to hit the send signal. Not oging to cost them anything to turn it on.

thats why i was speaking directly about on-line cyber land use and the retail devices would be immune to many of the related oem issues.

i would really like to see you do something extensive without burning any bridges you may have.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Good point. I see the problems with number 1. But not number 2. Why do I have to go to the bathroom all of a sudden......:D
Nothing is stopping them from simply bypassing the dealer completely. Then go right to the consumer. A small , low cost ad campaign on used car internet sites, used car magazines, a few radio spots, maybe even...Sit down Tyler.. A commerical or two. Send simple notices to dealers explainging the process if the customer has any questions, period. or dont, who cares. But the point is, the dealer knowing this guy might be buying a used car simply to get a free sub to sat radio isnt going to happen. but TELLING YOUR CUSTOMER how to get something for free, as it is in the car already, might make that customer RETURN. their is no excuse. none. period. dont care about their dealer deals, dont go through a dealer than if they are having problems. they have direct contact to the world. they have radios sitting dormant in thousands of cars. you do the math. it costs zero dollars to hit the send signal. Not oging to cost them anything to turn it on.

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Relmor....

I discussed a bit of this on my radio show last night. The SDARS license have stipulations with them. One stipulation is that it has to be a subscrition based service. The NAB, congressmen, and the FCC would become heavilly involved if the company simply turned on all of these radio.

That being said, they can do it as a marketing campaign similar to the one at the end of March. A short campaign where radios get activated is good. Additionally, there is a censorship issue. If they turn on all radios, and there is no subscription, they must be very carful so as to avoid FCC regulations.

It sounds simple, but you don't want to piss off the subs you have because you "toned down" the channel.

I think that they should create a small sampling of channels that are available on all radios that incorporate ad campaigns to subs. I wrote about this years ago with satellite standard. The patent has been around forever it seems now.

They do need to do a better job, but we also need to remember that it is the bottom line that matters, and every action costs money.

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Originally Posted by TSavery

Relmor....

I discussed a bit of this on my radio show last night. The SDARS license have stipulations with them. One stipulation is that it has to be a subscrition based service. The NAB, congressmen, and the FCC would become heavilly involved if the company simply turned on all of these radio.

That being said, they can do it as a marketing campaign similar to the one at the end of March. A short campaign where radios get activated is good. Additionally, there is a censorship issue. If they turn on all radios, and there is no subscription, they must be very carful so as to avoid FCC regulations.

It sounds simple, but you don't want to piss off the subs you have because you "toned down" the channel.

I think that they should create a small sampling of channels that are available on all radios that incorporate ad campaigns to subs. I wrote about this years ago with satellite standard. The patent has been around forever it seems now.

They do need to do a better job, but we also need to remember that it is the bottom line that matters, and every action costs money.

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Thanks for the response Tyler. Can you answer one more point. You said the FCC would have a problem with "turning on radios with no subscription". Dont they do this with every car sold anyway? they are "turned on with no subscription. or do they avoid this by counting every car sold with a sat radio in it as a sub. They dont, so.... Im confused.

Maybe because the uncensored content would be delivered without consent? I am thinking he is going down that road. Its one thing to pay for the uncensored content but, if it magically turns on and a minor has access to it, their head could exploded, or they could rob a bank, or kill someone, if they heard a swear.

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

Maybe because the uncensored content would be delivered without consent? I am thinking he is going down that road. Its one thing to pay for the uncensored content, if it magically turns on and a minor has access to it, their head could exploded, or they could rob a bank, or kill someone, if they heard a swear.

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I agree, that is a problem, but thats not my direction.
I said WITH CONSENT. They call in, say hey, i heard if i just bought a new car, and it had a sat radio in it, and i send you a copy of my invoice, you will turn on my radio for 1 month free... etc... Just one example of how they could do it.
See charles, thats with consent. Like agreeing to buy a new car with it turned on. No difference. I cant see how the FCC would care in that case.
Why not just anyone with a car radio, call in, agree to consent, and it turns on for one month free. Paid customers wont care, FCC wont care, and it would generate at least a few subs. Cant see the harm. If the cost to simply answer these phone calls makes it not worth it, I would say something is wrong then.

i still think they should open up 5 censored ad supported non subscription based channels, 1 news, 1 talk, 3 music channels. let people understand why satellite delivery is better than terrestrial, and let people enjoy having 5 channels they can have wherever they are which would eventuall open up those 5 channels to a huge audience. they even have the technology to thrown in local adds but i know there is alot of fcc red tape to get around.

on top of that make these free to any1 channels be channels 1-5 so they are easy to find and do not taking searching through 100 empty channels to find the 5 free ones, i know u said they have to have a subscription based model by fcc rules or something. so what if they charged some1 1 cent a year, wouldn't that get around that rule, 1 cent a year you get those 5 censored add supported channels.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

i still think they should open up 5 censored ad supported non subscription based channels, 1 news, 1 talk, 3 music channels. let people understand why satellite delivery is better than terrestrial, and let people enjoy having 5 channels they can have wherever they are which would eventuall open up those 5 channels to a huge audience. they even have the technology to thrown in local adds but i know there is alot of fcc red tape to get around.

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Very good idea. FCC red tape.... Do you think this red tape applies to my idea? As your idea requires like I said, FCC approval, as it violates the sub based business model. Not by much, i agree. I cant see how they would ahve a problem with it, as long as they dont advertise on those stations.
5 station... Censored... family oriented.. that plays all the time like a radio... but only 5 stations. ....Hmmm. ya NAB would be all over that. Now that I think about it. Might have huge delays and a lot of red tape. or just flat out denial.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

I agree, that is a problem, but thats not my direction.
I said WITH CONSENT. They call in, say hey, i heard if i just bought a new car, and it had a sat radio in it, and i send you a copy of my invoice, you will turn on my radio for 1 month free... etc... Just one example of how they could do it.
See charles, thats with consent. Like agreeing to buy a new car with it turned on. No difference.

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I know what you said, I was guessing what Tyler was thinking. Getting that consent is a hurdle... even your process isn't easy to do for end users and its even more work for Sirius XM to handle those calls. Lets be honest, people are not going to pick up the phone and call... at least not in big numbers. Maybe 1 in 10 as apposed to 10 in 10 if you could just turn it on.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Thanks for the response Tyler. Can you answer one more point. You said the FCC would have a problem with "turning on radios with no subscription". Dont they do this with every car sold anyway? they are "turned on with no subscription. or do they avoid this by counting every car sold with a sat radio in it as a sub. They dont, so.... Im confused.

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Promotional subscribers are part of the purchase of the car. This differs from a deactivated radio just sitting there

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Originally Posted by TSavery

Promotional subscribers are part of the purchase of the car. This differs from a deactivated radio just sitting there

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So your saying, the FCC mandates that "deactivated radios" cannot be turned on without them actually sending in money for that subscription. If im reading you correctly this is what you are saying. Correct?

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

So your saying, the FCC mandates that "deactivated radios" cannot be turned on without them actually sending in money for that subscription. If im reading you correctly this is what you are saying. Correct?

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The FCC mandates that SDARS is a subscription based service. If Sirius XM takes turning on inactive radios for free too far, the FCC could receive complaints from organizations such as the NAB.

Simply stated, SDARS needs to be a subscription service. If they delve too far into non-subscription activities, they can open up a can of worms.

At this point in their exisence, it does not make much sense to push that envelope, or "test out the gray ares"

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Originally Posted by TSavery

The FCC mandates that SDARS is a subscription based service. If Sirius XM takes turning on inactive radios for free too far, the FCC could receive complaints from organizations such as the NAB.

Simply stated, SDARS needs to be a subscription service. If they delve too far into non-subscription activities, they can open up a can of worms.

At this point in their exisence, it does not make much sense to push that envelope, or "test out the gray ares"

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That still doesnt make any sense to me. I understand it, i just dont understand it. They are allowed to INITIALLY offer it for free, but its not for "free" because these automakers actually PAY Sirius when it activates(at least in most contracts, correct?), so basically thats how they avoid it the first time. ok, i get it. Nice. finally.
What confused me was the payment to Sirius is an avoidance of breaking the rule on the initial trial. Got it.
Then simply offer huge discounts to retail customers equivalent to the cost of whatever your standard free sub trial run is on most car promotional subs. see wheres theres a will theres a way tyler, sirius isnt interested in making this happen right now. or they just cant think of a way. they need to call me. seriously. ;)

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

That still doesnt make any sense to me. I understand it, i just dont understand it. They are allowed to INITIALLY offer it for free, but its not for "free" because these automakers actually PAY Sirius when it activates(at least in most contracts, correct?), so basically thats how they avoid it the first time. ok, i get it. Nice. finally.
What confused me was the payment to Sirius is an avoidance of breaking the rule on the initial trial. Got it.
Then simply offer huge discounts to retail customers equivalent to the cost of whatever your standard free sub trial run is on most car promotional subs. see wheres theres a will theres a way tyler, sirius isnt interested in making this happen right now. or they just cant think of a way. they need to call me. seriously. ;)

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If you offer huge disconts, your paying customers will want to have the same deal. They will have diliuted the value of a subscriber substantially.

Where there is a will there is a way, but we are looking for a profitable way are we not?

It boils down to risk vs. reward. Lets say they have 20 million inactive radios and commit $20 million to market to those people. They get are successful 5% of the time and bring in 500,000 new subs. It takes 3 months to recover that $20,000,000. Is it worth while? Perhaps. What isf they would have gotten 100,000 subs anyway with no expense. In that same 3 months you are almost $4,000,000 ahead of the game.

Turning on the radio is the easy part. Each new customer places demands on call centers, etc. It is a fine balance, and they look at this stuff all of the time.

Tyler,

I thought in the original order for the sdars license the fcc left this issue up to the service provider and stated they could offer either type service. free or either subscriber and fee based i have never read where the fcc changed their position in this subject area and on the cc Mel said we maintain our right to do that.

i understand where your coming from on the content subject and the problem it could create if uncensored, but buy operating a limited always on service which covers a broad section of your material its really a great advertising platform tied direct to the largest captive listening market segment there is.

insert Sirius ad here explain a bit on the reactivation process using some top talent and other consumers then offer up a website address for understanding the enite reactivation of this auto or other user devices.

as i understand it copy rights fee for the music used on promotional channels are exempted from payment also.

[QUOTE=TSavery;32177]If you offer huge disconts, your paying customers will want to have the same deal. They will have diliuted the value of a subscriber substantially.


This is not a concept companies worry about. I disagree with this statement. I hear you about the fine line with the call center. Etc.. But 12.99 a month and you take 2 maybe 3 calls in this customers entire existance, i think they will make it. If your offering deals to acquire new customers, existing customers always get screwed. Look at Qwest, DirectTV, etc... All are offering incoming customers discounts, free services(call waiting, etc... a channel whatever) to come over.

So now that weve established...
1. FCC only doesnt want unconsented radios turning on...
2. Giving away free months is POSSIBLY violating FCC mandates on their business operations.
3. Dealer involvement is tricky, and encounters accouting problems.
So So according to Tim its not an FCC problem, its not a problem based on "customer fairness" as this post address's, and the content issue is easily solved by a consent agreement. One letter. One email, one phone call.
So offer new customers 1 month free best of.... anything. Cheaper first 3 months(remember this can be tied to simply the retail sector, and people who just bought a car that has a dead radio. Customers finishing a promo sub already had free months. Retailers who just bought missed out. O well. Good for them. Run it until your retail numbers are up. ANd the economy improves. This is all basic marketing 101. Easy way to forecast potential losses vs. potential gains. Rules of marketing are simple.
1. Once you acquire a full paying customer, youve won. Never offer this customer discounts.
If this customer calls to cancel after years of listening, then offer discounts to keep them.
2. If you get a lower rated customer, make sure its temporary. Never allow full time access, for partial price, full time. Always have a way out on any promo. This will avoid your worried about the number type 1 customer.
Now your reasons for lowering rates on used car buys(send in invoice to prove it, or new retail purchase(coupon for ________________ fill in the blank wont work because of angry previous customers, it wont make them money, as you are argueing that the number of customers who would already have signed up regardless of the discount would come over anyway, then you stop the promo. If it isnt working, you dont run it anymore. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Or run the used car idea(send in invoice idea) with a time limit on it. Run it for 3 months. If its working, extend it, if its not, then forget it. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Right now they have only the Iphone app as new ways of adding subs. They have nothing else as of 5/9/09. And as of right now, they dont even have the iphone app.