SIRI Intraday thread: Friday May 29

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

GoodMorning John,how are you?
Just got a reuters update from Vanguard this morning on SXM earnings and it is not good,they are estimating (-.10) for 09 and (-.05) for 2010..don't swee how they get it,especially for 2010.but there it is..
your right about 2Q subs and other FCF metrics after i saw a break down on GM and CHrysler sub %'s.with those 2 shutting down for weeks or 2 months will kill us short term unless we drastically reduce Churn below 1.7%...

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Well the good news is they must think that they are only going to lose a penny for each of the rest of the quarters or I would guess 2nd Q loss of a penny, 3rd Q loss of 2 pennies, and 4th quarter even or a penny profit. As far as 2010 gos I think they are figuring that OEMs will pick up again in that year and will drag the bottom line down with it. As long as they can get to FCF positive for the year it wont matter though. First EBITDA positive then FCF positive then true profit, they should all follow each other rather quickly if they can start to pick up subs again.

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Churn is key.

How about that slide that said subs become profitable after 12 months and 29 months. How many millions of subs did we add 2 years ago...this could be the BOOM BOOM POW.

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The problem there is the revenue still stays the same it just means the up front cost was already paid for. Hence why a down turn in OEMs is not all bad, huge upfront cost there.

how about this from the slideshow

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Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA: Now Expecting
More than $350 mm in 2009

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hey romo i didnt notice that but i did expect it, they are on pace for more than 400 million assuming they can continue the trend they established in the 1st qtr.

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Originally Posted by john

Well the good news is they must think that they are only going to lose a penny for each of the rest of the quarters or I would guess 2nd Q loss of a penny, 3rd Q loss of 2 pennies, and 4th quarter even or a penny profit. As far as 2010 gos I think they are figuring that OEMs will pick up again in that year and will drag the bottom line down with it. As long as they can get to FCF positive for the year it wont matter though. First EBITDA positive then FCF positive then true profit, they should all follow each other rather quickly if they can start to pick up subs again.

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Never mind my bad comment,i forgot about .07 loss in 1Q,what the hell was i thinking.that is good for 09..they are est. .015 loss for 2Q so it must be even or positive for 3Q and 4Q 09..2010 -.05 makes no sense with hardly any debt due and more revenue coming in..

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Never mind my bad comment,i forgot about .07 loss in 1Q,what the hell was i thinking.that is good for 09..they are est. .015 loss for 2Q so it must be even or positive for 3Q and 4Q 09..2010 -.05 makes no sense with hardly any debt due and more revenue coming in..

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Very true. I don't think it will be even close to -.05.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Never mind my bad comment,i forgot about .07 loss in 1Q,what the hell was i thinking.that is good for 09..they are est. .015 loss for 2Q so it must be even or positive for 3Q and 4Q 09..2010 -.05 makes no sense with hardly any debt due and more revenue coming in..

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Getting subs is not cheap, especially through the OEM channel.

omg im seeing green in my portfolio today, wtf i havnt seen that in a couple weeks :o

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

omg im seeing green in my portfolio today, wtf i havnt seen that in a couple weeks :o

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Green??? What's green look like. I swear, I'm watching roughly 75 different stocks. the ones that I own are the only ones that haven't found themselves in the green. I'm patiently waiting for the next bump upwards for everything.

Good for you though. As for me I'll have to keep pushing to close deals as my job to make some loot. HAHA.

O My God......Siri is up 1 billionth of a cent!!!!!!!!!WhoRahHHHHHHHH!!!!!