How high could SIRI spike on tuesday and in the coming days?

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Originally Posted by imromo24

i guess ya never know either, if part of the deal is dilution we could go down from fridays close!!! ouch

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and not all in one day either...good call

wow how can u expect a stock priced for bk to not go up if their is no bk? some of you guys have been in this stock for way too long you just cant give urselves any hope heh, its going to be okay.

Tripp...If there is one thing I learned for sure....Nobody knows whats gonna happen! Nobody.... So who's to say... I know i'll will be ready... to try to advance my position while its still unpredictable.... So we will have to just wait, communicate and conquer!:cool:

Long Sirius....

PS the more I read...The more sense the Duke Theory makes!

Well, it looks like offer for Liberty was real, so now it's up to Sirius management and now the new threat by creditors to oust management if they do file. I wonder what it is about the Liberty offer that has Sirius really concerned. What are they looking for in return ?

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Originally Posted by sxminvestor

If the POST news is not substantiated before Tuesday & not by early in the day, then I think the fear of bankrutcy will bring the stock back down to the.06 - .08 level again. You have to elephant balls to buy in large if that happens.

Our lives could be much easier if news isreleased before market opens or else it's going to be one helluva a day.

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Wouldn't they have to file BK before the market on tuesday if it was going to be filed? Are there not rules regarding this?

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Originally Posted by sxminvestor

Well, it looks like offer for Liberty was real, so now it's up to Sirius management and now the new threat by creditors to oust management if they do file. I wonder what it is about the Liberty offer that has Sirius really concerned. What are they looking for in return ?

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I'm thinking, it's more, You offered me this, lets see what the other side is offering, seeing if Dish would be more favorable

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Originally Posted by john

Demian, I would not count on a few strong quarters of FCF until the beginning of 2010. First of all Mel had stated that 2009 would have been FCF even, with out CAPEX, even is not strong.

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I just wanted to point out a common mistake: This was the INITIAL projections. Those projections changed. I am not sure if it was for the Q3 CC or one of the meetings, but Mel clearly stated that they expected to be FCF even INCLUDING capex for 2009. With the debt situation and the credit markets, they may very well push back the launch of their next satellite a few months to save the money if it is not needed right away. Besides that, the longer it sits on the ground, the longer space life it has.

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Originally Posted by sxminvestor

Well, it looks like offer for Liberty was real, so now it's up to Sirius management and now the new threat by creditors to oust management if they do file. I wonder what it is about the Liberty offer that has Sirius really concerned. What are they looking for in return ?

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Mel is squeezing balls....and we are just feeling the anticipation of what can happen (which squeezes our balls). He will deal, he doesn't want to lose his money...he may lose a little face, but not all of his investment. He is STILL playing the middle between Ergen and Liberty. Ergen hasn't been as pronounced in the last couple of days, but it has been the weekend. The press is favoring Liberty, but we shall see. Nobody knows a damn thing yet. It is easy to hypothesize, but an hypothesis can only be proved wrong.......not right...Bottom line - nobody knows and will not know until Tuesday....so drink, eat, be merry and live one's life. Most people weren't this nervous a week or two ago.

I hope and wish the best for everybody. :) Life is but a chair of bowlies.

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Originally Posted by SiriusOwner

Guys, why do you forget the Balance sheet so easy ? What is the shareholder equity ? Was it $15 K ? I do not have the sheet in front of me but I remember last time I look, SIRI was losing money. There was no EPS, E/P, etc ...

Keep it real guys, SIRI is a troubled company, these troubles will not go away in one day. They have to work thru all of them and that takes time.

The $3.00 stock price was an inflated price and that was before the merger. After the merger they acquired a ton of debt and they continued losing money.

How long do you expect a company that is losing money to survive (it has survived some years by acquiring tons of debt, which can put them out of business very easy, as y'all have learned, right ?). They have to make money, they have to make money, the have to make money!

You also have to keep in mind that we are in a recession, it is about company fundamentals BUT macroeconomics also ! The fundamentals are not poster fundamentals and this is not the best environment for a company to thrive.

That is why I've said, if SIRI survives the down turn, THEN, the stock will steadily go towards the pre-merger levels but it will take at least 1-2 years.

KEEP in mind also that if SIRI survives is not necessarily because of them, it was because a "White Knight" decided to step in... Again, there's so many problems and troubles with this company that it will be impossible to list all of them here. Now, I am not saying that they can not beat them but it will take a lot of effort and sleepless nights. Their problems won't be solved overnight.

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SiriusOwner, let me ask you this: When is the last time that this company actually traded based on fundamentals other than debt? Answer: NEVER.

This stock is currently priced for bankruptcy and nothing else. I agree that Sirius is an underperformer and will continue to be. Which number is it that most people use for valuation for earnings? Would it be EBITDA? If it is, Sirius is currently trading at 1x Estimated 2010 EBITDA (600 million est. EBITDA devided by 4.5 billion shares = 0.13) Regardless, as I said, the stock is priced for BK. Once BK is off the table (even temporarily, if May is not handled yet), the stock WILL spike. It more than doubled when the initial echostar news came out, and you don't think it will spike higher than that on this news? (Again, granted, we do not know the terms at this time)

You keep mentioning the fact that Sirius has yet to make a profit. While you are 100% correct, you also fail to mention (or fail to see?) the fact that they will be FCF even INCLUDING capex for 2009. I know FCF is not profit, but cash is king. As of NOW, Sirius should have absolutely no loss in FCF if their projections are correct which means that they are inching closer and closer to profitability.

As I stated earlier in this thread, I do not expect to see $1 anytime soon. I don't think December debt will be handled anytime soon, and we will not see $1 until after that is taken care of, and then only if the economy has started to turn around. You mention that it may make it back to premerger levels in 1-2 years? I think that may be a bit optimistic myself...

guys if siri does not file for bk it is going to fly, come back to this teusday and we will see :O listen to duke if u want but he is flat out wrong about a few things.