Chomping at the bit to see the updated institutional holdings on NASDAQ site....slight change to 27.74% with a few updates to 9/30/14 but doesn't seem to have most updates yet.
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Chomping at the bit to see the updated institutional holdings on NASDAQ site....slight change to 27.74% with a few updates to 9/30/14 but doesn't seem to have most updates yet.
I don't really subscribe to the idea that there is a problem with the number of outstanding shares. I mean, if the shares were double and the share price was half but everyone had twice as many of them would there be more of a problem? If the shares were half and the share price was double but everyone had half as many shares would there be less of a problem? =/
When people say the only problem is the number of shares... well, that's a problem with any stock, no? The number of shares other than the ones one currently owns?
Retail are and will be hammered out of their shares over this period. While it was a possibility before it is just simple reality right now. UBS can and will buy the bid and sell the ask all day long and thus SIRI can easily be controlled so long as there are no *significant* upside surprises that induce INTEREST in the stock. Time = volume and little bits and pieces can be pulled off ...
Think of an assembly line with shares going by all at different levels on conveyors. If you want to grab a whole shit ton of them at once you have to grab from a bunch of levels. But if you have TIME on your side you can just skim as traders flip in and out of positions. Once in awhile pull back, short the hell out of it and guide the traders to technical support points (you're covered with convertible bond shares... you're fine... ) and then skim from the trading activity on the way back up.
Over time retail sells and you skim those shares because they are going to sell the bid, every time. More time passes, more frustration... more confusion... more impatience... more selling.
That being said ... why not just sell then and buy back when they are done and trade / invest in other stuff? My answer to that is if anyone feels comfortable for that then go for it! :) Cash out, sell, and come back later if you want after you've flipped in and out of a bunch of stocks and doubled or tripled your money in a few months! (a little bit of sarcasm there... but someone might pull that off... I dunno?)
Me, I'm not that good :P Best I can do is buy dips and go in when people are screaming to raise cash, protect yourself, SIRI is going to crash, blah blah blah. LMCA is going to cash out of this and pop the stock at some point so LMCA investors are rewarded handsomely. Value will be unlocked, you'll see a string up beats and upgrades, and the stock will move quickly (my opinion). I don't know when the hell that will be :) but I'm an investor until that point, and patiently waiting.
Consider this. The longer SIRI drags and the longer this buyback can go on... the more it can / will pop. SIRI is cheap at $3.50 and was especially cheap a few weeks back. You'll get your $3.57 on a trade quite soon, but hell... I'd argue that for the investor that's still an excellent buy point (yes even though it is above the 50 day MA).
20 crosses the 200 tomorrow. And that 200 day MA is about to turn up or at least flatline as early as next week. Critical point is right about Dec 1st when those converts go away.
This is probably the most "interesting" time with SIRI since LMCA moved to take control... though you won't see people write about it because, well... people don't write about this kinda stuff.
I'm gonna write something(s) up this weekend if I have time. Still don't know where the hell I am going with it but I need the institutional numbers first.
regarding need for buybacks... I'd argue they will continue so long as shares are at lower ends of valuation.
I can't imagine the company blowing a billion or two on some gamble trying to reinvent the wheel with this satellite radio thing... what are they gonna do, pursue streaming? I'd sell. I don't want them wasting my money like that.
I want them to chug along, keep growing at a somewhat stable pace, use TIME to get the radios into cars, get moving on the used market that now has those radios installed (which they are)... basically, exactly what they are doing.
Give me 30 mil subs. Give me 1.5 B a year FCF. And keep buying back that stock so long as people are sick of it and willing to sell for whatever reasons they wish to sell it for. Once SIRI exhausts those sellers, once LMCA and institutions and the hard and fast investors own the company and the traders are flipping shares that only exist because of the short interest.... it's time to RMT, cut the share count back in the process (1:15 1:10? something like that), and let it rip on what will be EASY earnings beats because "one time charges" stop showing up, new debt is not taken on and the company only needs $10 to $15M in revenue to get EPS up by a penny instead of $150M or whatever it is now.
Or maybe I am crazy :) Just trying to think about LMCA here... and LMCA holders... this isn't a cash grab play no matter how many believe it is, and this isn't a "milk SIRI to chase a cable empire" play either (in my opinion.)
And for what it is worth LMCA is just about as attractive as SIRI here... perhaps even moreso now with the cable stuff out of there.
http://247wallst.com/investing/2014/...nasdaq-stocks/
As stated in the above article....
"The number of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) shares short decreased by about 5.69 million to around 240.50 million, which was 10.3% of the float. Short interest has shrunk in seven of the past eight periods, but it would still take about nine days to cover all short positions. Sirius reported net income and subscriber growth during the period. The stock’s price rose more than 5% in the two-week period and more than 3% since. Shares closed at $3.51 on Tuesday, in a 52-week range of $2.98 to $3.89.
A new YouTube music service announced just after Sirius announces more YouTube themed music channels?
C'mon Google..... make a move
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102178376?__s...&doc=102178376
Tick up in institutional holdings this morning to 27.81% from 27.74%
Total shares held up to 1.527 bn from 1.523 bn
As the reports continue to come in for end of Q3 9/30/2014 these #s will change a bit.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/siri/in...ional-holdings
EDIT: As of this update the total held by institutions and LMCA is app. 85.31%, leaving 14.69% to the retail holder.
5.494 bn X 14.69% = app. 807 mn shares
EDIT2: Squeeeezzzzeeeee
Thanks for the info Denco...good stuff.
Wonder if they eventually take it down the usual .30 from here for buyback purposes or let it run to higher levels first before doing it?
All depends on what we hear from LMCA next Wednesday
http://ir.libertymedia.com/
Music executives and labels pushing for paid sub radio models rather than free ad supported ones.....this i believe bodes well for siri. Those who have argued that "free radio/streaming" would hurt siriusxm may want to rethink that.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/era-of...160154279.html
"Some labels are looking to Sirius XM Radio Inc., the satellite radio service, as a model. Though its technology may no longer be cutting-edge, Sirius is adept at amassing loyal customers. Many of Sirius XM’s nearly 30 million subscribers pay $15 a month, and nearly half of the people who buy new cars with the service preinstalled end up subscribing. Less than 2% cancel their subscriptions each year"
“If they’re not serious about having a paid tier and improving monetization, we’re going to be less interested in working with them,” he said.
"
BOOM!!
BOOMASCHLONGDINGDONG!!
Thanks for the link DM...SIRI has what all of them want. A huge base of monetizing recurring subs.
I agree Wolf.....make your move GOOG.....or AAPL......or FB........or AMZN
Yup they have the infrastructure, the dashboard, Subs, FCF and Content!!Quote:
Originally Posted by denco1
How much longer will MaloneCo continue to take a dump on their own stock--LMCA/LMCK--and stock holders during this buy back. LMCA has sucked just as bad as SIRI over the past year. When SIRI moves so will LMCA.....how much longer before they make their move and let them both go.
Attachment 1297
I'm thinking after the dust settles from the redemption of the exchangeable notes on 12/1 14 another offer from Liberty will be coming. They just completed the split off their cable interests, seems to coincide with the date of the notes. Probably down one more time when the exchanged notes hit the market and then complete their purchase of shares with cash left, then offer. Just my opinion but they have milked out as many shares as possible without paying a premium. Only about 800 mil in reets hands now, most of those will probably hold at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by denco1
I'm thinking once buyback bucks are exhausted, but not until then. Remember, the more shares that are removed from the float, the higher Liberty's % ownership; and full ownership has always been their agenda. Once their huge piece of the pie has been maximized, the next step is to increase market cap and that's when we fly. If Liberty has the power to suppress the sp, they certainly have an equal amount of strength to work it the other way. It wouldn't surprise me if retail ownership ends up dipping near 10% before this happens and I suspect another low ball effort is coming our way as well. I am feeling better about my hair brained decision to hold on all these years when most everyone I knew thought I was a fool. So maybe just a few more "wtf?" pullbacks and we will be set free! The only thing that concerns me is, of course, the inevitable buyout offer and the mess that can cause again.Quote:
Originally Posted by denco1
What you have to keep in mind is that LMCA has been buying back LMCA as well... (as far as I understand) so, both SIRI and LMCA "sucking" during the process is good for the INVESTOR who is in it to completion.
Everything is ticking along just fine. The street chatter and consistently negative tone of most writers about SIRI serves its purpose. People are so concerned, negative, etc. Read the comments in CN's most recent article... couple guys in there sold out long term positions in the past couple days and I get messages (though now less frequent) from people who sold here and there.
What happens is SIRI goes above $3.50... these guys say "I will sell at $3.85! once it gets back there!"... then it drops down to $3.16 and they go ahhhh... what if it hits $2.70 oh my god I will sell at $3.50 if it gets back there....
At some point they sell... "stock sucks" .... "Been in this for 5 years and I just want to dump this crap (despite being up 30X in that period..." "we will never see $4 again"
There are still a large number of people out there who are looking for $4 again to sell. I figure they beat the rest of the shares out between $3.50 and $4 because of it. Anyone holding at $4 is either looking for $10 for whatever odd reason... or is some long term holder who is holding through the process (like myself) and not interested in flipping the thing all over the place, or doesn't care that it has dragged and has just been adding on dips.
Why let it go to $2.70? :) There would be far too many buyers there... and SIRI doesn't want long term buyers buying, or even a significant number of traders...
Still wish I had done a $4 spread... kicking myself. My overall CB on my $2.50's is $0.7525 ... it could be $0.50 and I'd be sitting at a double here cuz those $4's can be covered for a penny....
I think a lot of the mess has already been cleaned up with the spin and thus a buy out offer will be much more in line with shareholder expectations on both sides.....if/when we see another offer. I also agree that things should clean up even more once these converts are behind us.....of course next Wednesday will be interesting and hopefully give us a bit more clarity with the spin related events down the line a bit. Thanks for the comments guys:thumbsup:
Let's see if Cramer mentions SIRI in his little buyback "blah blah blah" (don't ask me why I have CNBC on... it's worthless :P )
Nope... he's not allowed to mention SIRI yet ;)
Institutional holdings ticked down today to 27.47%
Should be pretty fluid over the next few days.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/siri/in...ional-holdings
Pandhorror up 9%, CEO buys 25k shares.