Well put SRK, thank you for your insight!!!
Hopeful
Printable View
Well put SRK, thank you for your insight!!!
Hopeful
Getting rather boring, eh? Maybe the company, not us, Canadian! ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Hopeful
Stick around. :)
Julie
Lol Julie, the stock is what I meant! I still come here all the time!!!
Take care Julie,
Andy
SEC Approves Rules Expanding Stock-by-Stock Circuit Breakers and Clarifying Process for Breaking Erroneous Trades
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-167.htm
Should be interesting to see how this work and is enforced? Notice this applies to both up and down price moves? :rolleyes:
Quote from John from Aug. 9, 2010
"Thats funny Ben because while I believe the market (in general) will go down soon I am thinking beginning to the middle of Sep. (If the Republicans take control of the house in Nov. it will go back up some again and if they get both the house and senate then it will return to what it is today but if they cant get the Bush tax cuts extended then it will go down again huge.)"
I think this is an example of why its silly to bet on the short term direction of the stock market. Yesterday Republican Minority leader Boehner seemed to indicate that he would vote for the retention of the middle class tax cut without the retention of the tax cut on the richest top 2%. Market doesnt seem to have reacted negatively so far. Should be very interesting if the market "will go down again huge" because they dont keep the tax cut on those top 2% as John predicts.
i think this is exactly why John refused to answer my 2 specific questions about his predictions on the market. Being forced to be specific opened him up to the possiblity that he would look like even more of a 'dumbass'. :)
Sirius Looks Fit to Outgrow Howard Stern
If shock jock Stern lands elsewhere, analysts say Sirius XM Radio should keep attracting listeners—and at lower cost By Olga Kharif
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) may keep adding listeners, fueling a stock rally that has lifted the satellite radio provider by 74 percent this year, notwithstanding the prospect of losing famed shock jock Howard Stern.
Stern, 56, credited by Standard & Poor's (MHP) analyst Tuna Amobi for attracting as many as 2 million subscribers when he moved his show to Sirius in January 2006, suggested last week that he may leave satellite radio when his contract expires. Stern's five-year, $500 million contract includes his pay and that of his staff. When the show made its debut, Sirius awarded Stern and his agent stock that was then valued at more than $200 million, saying he was luring enough listeners to warrant the payment. While Amobi says 200,000 to 300,000 fans may drop the service if he departs, customer growth overall will continue and Sirius can build sales with the money it saves on Stern.
"If he leaves, it frees Sirius up, cost-wise, to add more talent," Amobi tells Bloomberg Businessweek.com in an interview. "The threshold where they'd consider letting him go today is a lot lower than before. They can grow without him."
Sirius was little changed, at 1.05, on Sept. 10 in Nasdaq trading. The shares have gained 5.2 percent since Sept. 2, when Stern told listeners that he's "pretty sure" he'll exit satellite radio next year, according to Orbitcast. Patrick Reilly, a spokesman for Sirius, didn't return calls requesting comment. On a conference call last month, Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin said the company hoped to have an announcement prior to the release of third-quarter earnings "as to what is going on with Howard."
no "material" survivor loss?
Sirius will probably add 1.1 million subscribers this year to the 18.8 million it had at the end of 2009, says Amobi. It may add a further 1.4 million in 2011, he says. While initially interested only in Stern, many fans have since found additional Sirius channels that appeal to them, he says. Among the converts is Beth Porter, a stay-at-home mom who lives in Concord, Calif. She signed up for Sirius service in 2006, specifically for Stern. Now she also tunes in to the Hits 1 and Raw Dog Comedy channels. "I'd start listening to music and comedy channels" more if Stern leaves, Porter, 43, says in an interview.
Stern no longer brings in significant numbers of new listeners, Amobi says. If an existing programming contract isn't renewed, "we have no reason to believe that any such subscriber loss will be material to our business or financial condition taken as a whole," Sirius said in a June 30 filing.
With Stern's contract accounting for more than a fourth of the company's total annual programming and content costs last year, Sirius may be better off spending lesser sums on a greater number of lower-profile hosts, says Susan Kevorkian, a program director at IDC, a research firm in San Mateo, Calif. "They'll have presumably more money at their disposal to experiment with new channels and see what resonates with their existing subscribers," Kevorkian says.
Sirius pays other well-known hosts such as Martha Stewart a fraction of Stern's compensation. The radio company and Stewart agreed to a four-year, $30 million deal in 2005. Sirius declined to say what Stewart's current contract is worth. Last year, the company had a loss of $342.8 million and reported spending $370.5 million on programming and content. It reported a profit in each of the past three quarters.
similar deal "wouldn't pass muster"
Sirius says it's working to lower programming costs as it negotiates with content providers, including Stern, the National Football League, and Nascar. The costs "are expected to decrease as various agreements expire and are renewed or replaced on more cost-effective terms," the company said in the filing.
"If they were to pay anything [like what] they paid before, it wouldn't pass muster," S&P's Amobi says, referring to Stern. While offering Stern lower pay and a shorter contract is an option, the radio host said earlier this year that he has been fielding calls from potential employers. John Hogan, CEO of traditional radio operator Clear Channel Communications, said in January that "we would be the most logical company for him to optimize his exposure and financial return."
Clear Channel declined to comment. Neither Stern nor his agent, Don Buchwald, returned calls and e-mails seeking comment. Stern has speculated on his show that he may start a Web-only program or offer one through a mobile application. "Howard Stern has an established presence and legions of followers," says IDC's Kevorkian. "If anybody can make it work, Howard Stern can."
One fan, Harris Damashek of Brooklyn, N.Y., says he would pay $20 to $30 a month for a Stern mobile app, in addition to his Sirius service. "I enjoy listening to Howard's take on everything," says Damashek, 35, who makes mobile apps. "I'd build a mobile app for free for Howard."
http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...910_414287.htm
A giant An-124 Ruslan cargo plane has landed at the Baikonur Space Center in Kazakhstan with a telecommunications satellite that will be launched for Sirius XM radio in mid-October, the Russian Space Agency said on Sunday.
The Sirius XM-5 satellite and an array of support equipment were unloaded and taken to a clean room for final assembly and testing, Roscosmos said on its website.
The launch is expected to take place on October 14. The satellite will function as an in-orbit spare for the Sirius XM satellite radio network. All four previous Sirius satellites were launched on Proton rockets.
The October launch will be the sixth time a Proton-M heavy carrier rocket has lifted off with a foreign satellite in 2010. Three other Proton-M rockets have orbited Russian satellites.
The final assembly of the rocket started at Baikonur last month.
MOSCOW, September 12 (RIA Novosti)
http://en.rian.ru/science/20100912/160566767.html
Karmazin to Present at the Bank of America Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference
NEW YORK, Sept. 13 /PRNewswire/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced that Mel Karmazin, its Chief Executive Officer, is expected to speak at the Bank of America Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference in Newport Beach, CA, on Wednesday, September 15, 2010 at approximately 8:45 am PT (11:45 am ET).
An audio webcast of the presentation will be available via the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.sirius.com, at approximately 8:45 am PT (11:45 am ET).
I hope this one goes better than Mel's presentation 2 years ago, September 12, 2008 . . . remember this beauty?
"Are there people who would like to invest in our company?" the CEO asked at one point, in response to an analyst's question. "In my opinion, the terms -- and I've not had any discussions on it, because obviously there's very few people that want to invest at a price that's double...or triple what the market is saying it's worth. But we never thought that our 441 converts were something that we were going to have to deal with. As we got into 2008, it became apparent at the beginning of this year that we're going to have to take it out. The debt market -- not necessarily the publicly traded debt market, but the bank market -- as ugly as banks are, and as much as they don't want to use their balance sheet, and as much as they don't want to do it, we have been encouraged."
"At this point, am I going to lend the company the money?" Karmazin asked rhetorically. "I hope not. I hope we don't get to that."
http://marksfriggin.com/news.htm
Howard Staying Silent About Contract Negotiations? 09/13/10. 8:15am
Howard took a call from a guy who asked if Howard was dropping a bomb saying that Robin and Nancy Sinatra sent him wine and if that was about his signing with SIRIUS. Howard said he would rather not talk about what's going on with that right now. He said that the wine came out of the blue and had nothing to do with his contract. He's not talking about what's going on with that at this point.
aha! I guess "1221" finally had enough . . it's one thing to negotiate on-air Howard . . it's a whole 'nother thing to bad-mouth the entire business enterprise in the process
I logged on just to ask you if you heard this!!! Howard completely blew it off. I wanted to call the wrap up show and see if they got any vibe. I certainly did.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Good info on the thread today...:cool:
It's good to see that folks are recognizing that Cash is King: :cool:
Meet the Cash Kings of Broadcasting
By Jim Royal, Ph.D. | More Articles
September 13, 2010 | Comments (0)
SIRI
Sirius XM Radio
Watch SIRI
As an investor, it pays to follow the cash. If you figure out how a company moves its money, you might eventually find some of that cash flowing into your pockets.
In this series, we'll highlight three big dogs in an industry, and compare their "cash king margins" over time, trying to determine which has the greatest likelihood of putting cash back in your pocket. After all, a company can pay dividends and buy back stock only after it's actually received cash -- not just when it books those accounting figments known as "profits."
The cash king margin
Looking at a company's cash flow statement can help you determine whether its free cash flow actually backs up its reported profit. Companies that can create 10% or more free cash flow from their revenue can be powerful compounding machines for your portfolio.
To find the cash king margin, divide the free cash flow from the cash flow statement by sales:
Cash king margin = Free cash flow / sales
Let's take Nike as an example. Over the last four quarters, the footwear giant generated $3.2 billion in operating cash flow. It invested about $335 million in property, plant, and equipment. To calculate free cash flow, subtract Nike's investment ($335 million) from its operating cash flow ($3.2 billion). That leaves us with $2.8 billion in free cash flow, which the company can save for future expenditures or distribute to shareholders.
Taking Nike's sales of $19 billion over the same period, we can figure that the company has a cash king margin of about 15% -- a nice high number. In other words, for every dollar of sales, Nike produces $0.15 in free cash.
Ideally, we'd like to see the cash king margin top 10%. The best blue chips can notch numbers greater than 20%, making them true cash dynamos. But some businesses, including many types of retailing, just can't sustain such margins.
We're also looking for companies that can consistently increase their margins over time, which indicates that their competitive position is improving. Erratic swings in margins could signal a deteriorating business, or perhaps some financial skullduggery; you'll have to dig deeper to discover the reason.
Three companies
Today, let's look at three companies in the broadcasting industry:
Company
Cash King Margin (TTM)
1 Year Ago
3 Years Ago
5 Years Ago
DIRECTV (Nasdaq: DTV)
12.1%
8.7%
7.1%
(10.7%)
Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA)
15.3%
14.5%
6.1%
9.9%
SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI)
5.6%
(3.0%)
(56.5%)
(293.5%)
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; TTM = trailing 12 months.
Comcast displays the highest cash king margins of the three companies, and in the past three years has shown steady growth in its margins. DIRECTV also meets our 10% for attractiveness, and has grown its margins by almost 23 percentage points in the past half-decade. While Sirius fails to meet our 10% for attractiveness, its margins are on a serious uptrend over the past five years -- something for the Sirius bulls to hang their hats on.
The cash king margin can help you find highly profitable businesses, but it should only be the start of your search. The ratio does have its limits, especially for fast-growing small businesses. Many such companies reinvest all of their cash flow into growing the business, leaving them little or no free cash -- but that doesn't necessarily make them poor investments. You'll need to look closer to determine exactly how a company is using its cash.
Still, if you can cut through the earnings headlines to follow the cash instead, you might be on the path toward seriously great investments.
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...adcasting.aspx
Been a little too long eh? Football season is hear, love it, go Stillers! Dennis Dixon 1-0.....I like it alot...would have been cooler if the monster Ray Lewis didn't scare the shit out of Sanchez or "The Mexican quarterback" southern thing. The Jets are the Jets, they are going to get every bodies best every Sunday. I think they are in for a rough season.
Siri....stuck in the mud. After reading the post about Stern leaving I start to worry about some of the dire hards. I have been out for a good while and I think its crazy risky....this coming from a guy who owns two stocks, FAZ..triple inverse short on banks..lol....FXP...short on China...currently getting an ass whipping around 33. FAZ though has also underperformed recently, I have picked at 13.15 and 12.90ish. I am all in and waiting for a nice spike. If anyone is feeling lucky I would pick some off....its due.
Never take advise from a guy who says,"Its due". Loser montra...lol.
Asia was somewhat mixed, Europe looks weak and our futures are a little red. Faz is due and when it pops it moves in leaps and bounds. Good Luck.
Look out Tennessee, our defense is feeling disrespected, I hope Chris Johnson runs into Harrison, Woodley, Timmons, Smith, Farrior, hell maybe even Foote!
Greatest time of the year, last weeks college games were amazing! The running back from USC Lattimore is a beast, 186 rushing and 2 tds, true freshman from the Pee Dee region of SC, this kid is a tackle breaking machine. Worth watching some video of, the ass whipping they gave Georgia.
Good luck all.
Dennis Dixon......screw Rapersberger!
As usual your timing is impeccable. "Siri.... stuck in the mud." LOL.
You must be hurting pretty bad in the market given what you have said
about the end of the world huh?
Hey Big Ben - I was wondering why SIRI was up a nickel today!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Ben
I took my own advise. After the earnings season wound down (which was good as I predicted), I sold my long positions. Did ok. But then I bought a short position in SPXU. Well, that was a mistake. I would have been better off HOLDING. Didn't see all this "good news" coming lol. Harrisburg, PA was bailed out by the State of PA. Had they defaulted, it would have rocked the market. So it's on to next on the list.
Yes, football is upon us. Thank goodness the Steelers came through for me last week. It was too close for comfort, but I had faith in their D at home.
Lattimore is a stud. I wish PSU had a chance at him. Did you see that back up RB from Alabama? Christ, he's stronger than any lineman on the PSU line.
How's the grass cutting business these days?
looks like Mel hit one outta the park today at BOA presentation . .
Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin still confident Howard Stern will sign new deal
September 15, 2010 | 9:48 am
Sirius XM Chief Executive Mel Karmazin said he remains optimistic about signing a new deal to keep Howard Stern on the satellite radio service, but warned that should the shock jock bolt, some subscribers might leave with him.
Speaking at the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference, Karmazin praised Stern, with whom he's worked closely for decades.
"He's been a fabulous partner ... he has enabled companies to make a lot of money," Karmazin said. Stern's current contract expires at the end of the year, and he has, as he always does when one of his deals is nearing expiration, been dropping hints on his show that it may be time to walk away. Karmazin said he doesn't want to negotiate in public with Stern, but he noted that Sirius XM has successfully renewed several high-profile contracts recently, including those with Oprah Winfrey and Martha Stewart, and that he is "very confident" about getting Stern to stick around.
Stern sent shock waves through the radio industry in 2005 when left CBS Radio for Sirius. Karmazin, who has worked with Stern dating back to the 1980s at Infinity Radio and later at CBS, came to the satellite radio company soon after Stern made the leap.
One of the reasons Stern left over-the-air radio for the satellite service, besides a huge pay day, was freedom from Federal Communications Commission regulations. Stern's radio show was often a target of the regulatory agency, which fined radio stations millions of dollars in connection with Stern's racy program. Stern has indicated that he does not have a desire to return to terrestrial radio. He could conceivably try to go solo and launch his own digital platform.
As for Sirius XM, which has almost 20 million subscribers, Karmazin downplayed the idea that there would be an exodus of subscribers should Stern leave.
"They may have come for Howard, they may love Howard ... but they listen to other channels," he said.
As for what Stern is looking for in a new deal, Karmazin would not divulge details, saying only that Stern is "compensated very fairly." When Stern joined Sirius in 2005, his contract was valued at $500 million, but that also included the costs of producing the show.
"They may have come for Howard, they may love Howard ... but they listen to other channels," Mel said.
Siri does monitor what people listen to . . and they do have the #'s . . . which is where I believe Tuna Amobi gets his magical out-of-thin-air estimates from.
Sirius XM Affirms 2010 Outlook.
By Eric Savitz
Sirius XM (SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin today affirmed the company’s previous guidance for 2010, which calls for revenue approaching $2.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of about $575 million and almost 20 million subscribers. Karmazin spoke today at the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch conference in San Francisco.
According to slides prepared for the presentation, Karmazin said satellite radio service this year is being offered on about 60% of cars sold in the U.S., up from 55% last year.
Sirius also says it now expects year-end cash of $430 million; Karmazin also noted that the company has no significant debt maturing before 2013.
SIRI is up 6 cents, or 5.7%, to $1.11.