Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

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03-10-2009, 07:19 PM
Brandon Matthews

Quote:

Originally Posted by mogami

So they beat the crap out of your predicted 2 million subs lost right?

WROOONG AGAIN! My prediction is for 2009, not 2008. I was looking forward, not back. I'm sorry to say it, but I was right...
03-10-2009, 07:21 PM
mogami

2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

WROOONG AGAIN! My prediction is for 2009, not 2008. I was looking forward, not back. I'm sorry to say it, but I was right...

so you think they will finish 2009 with 17 million subs? Just want to make sure I understand what your saying.
03-10-2009, 07:23 PM
Koop

This from Mel.

"In the fourth quarter 2008, the company's first full quarter of combined operations, SIRIUS XM made remarkable financial progress," said Mel Karmazin, CEO of SIRIUS. "For the first time in company history, we reached positive pro forma adjusted income from operations of $32 million, as compared with a loss of $224 million one year ago. Fourth quarter 2008 revenue of $644 million grew 16% over the year ago quarter while total cash operating expenses declined by 22%, a clear demonstration of our focus on improving profitability. Despite challenges in the overall economy and in the auto sector, we look forward to continuing to deliver on the synergies of the merger. We are also very pleased to report that we have closed the second and final phase of the previously announced investment by Liberty Media Corporation. These transactions resolve the uncertainty surrounding the company's and its subsidiaries' debt maturing in 2009."

from PR Newswire 7:12 PM
03-10-2009, 07:23 PM
Brandon Matthews

Quote:

Originally Posted by sxminvestor

Enough with the word negligible.

Sirius did not break out gross vs net. They may have had Gross of 600k & had churn of 933k to net 333k. Don't you understand this concept ?

I agree they have to increase the retail additions in order to stabilize and grow the subs and revenue. And we need OEM's production and penetration rates to increase y/y.

The take rate also dropped a bit, but this was expected to a certain account because of the mix of lower end cars and poor economy.

Your still talking Apples and Oranges and trying to pull smoke and mirrors on everyone with your trying to explain your way out of the 2 million sub loss prediction you stated (your opinion) for 2009.

Mel had better be preparing the speech of his life. This company is heading in the wrong direction. This report was awful. If nothing changes, it may as well just give up. The basher journalists are going to have a field day with it. I'm so disgusted, I won't write about it.
03-10-2009, 07:23 PM
sxminvestor

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

COH

So . . if COH at end of Q4 was $380mm then $20mm was added over Q3

Also, adding in $78mm leftover from the initial Malone infusion . . . COH today should be somewhere around $460mm

They have alot of 1 time charges, refinancing charges, etc in 1st Q - another ugly one where subs may have barely grown. Hope the push on advertising on the internet has helped spur retail a bit.

2nd Q should be back to business and growth again !
03-10-2009, 07:24 PM
sxminvestor

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

Mel had better be preparing the speech of his life. This company is heading in the wrong direction. This report was awful. If nothing changes, it may as well just give up. The basher journalists are going to have a field day with it. I'm so disgusted, I won't write about it.

I do agree it wasn't good.

They need to start growing again.
03-10-2009, 07:27 PM
Koop

Also...
SIRIUS XM plans to hold a conference call on Thursday, March 12, 2009 at 8:00 am ET to discuss these results. Investors and the press can listen to the conference call via the company's website, www.sirius.com, and on its satellite radio service by tuning to SIRIUS channel 126 or XM channel 90.
03-10-2009, 07:29 PM
Sirius Roadkill

I saw Greg Maffei on with Maria Bartiromo today on Closing Bell ... he said he envisions (and I'm paraphrasing here) some portion of the nonpremium content being offered for free . . .

It was an interesting interview and I thought it odd that he mentioned 19mm subs . . that was before I knew the Q was released.

He indicated continued subscriber growth even with 9-10mm new auto sales . .
03-10-2009, 07:30 PM
Koop

Hell... I was stoked that there was no "going concern" statement. At least after a 15 minute quick scan.
03-10-2009, 07:34 PM
Sirius Roadkill

btw . . . Maffei said that Liberty would work with management to help them extend the maturities of the May 2010 debt ($250mm)

I have to admit that this guy is a better speaker than Mel and didn't use the word "sucks" even once . . . had a nice even temperament.

In fact, Mel was never once mentioned during the interview . . . this could be Mel's swan song; he may be a great cost-cutter but he is way-way behind the tech curve . . . jmo

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