Market Watch for the week of 8/9/2009

OCNF - I think the key levels are $1.25 and $1.50. All trading has been inside the after earnings candle. A touch at $1.25 could be an entry, but look out for it going lower, a move up in decent volume above $1.50 would be the more proven point of an up move. Consult the $BDI, $SHX and a few other shipping stocks... ie. fundamental leader ISH, medium fundamental stock EGLE - which looks like it may bounce up, and another fundamentally weak stock like DRYS.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/OCNF8.png

PACR - bumped into resistance... look for it to form a handle, or pierce the resistance, unfortunately, has more price resistance above... so likely not the best time for an entry, until things unfold a little.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/PACR8.png

QASP -

Woulda liked to see the close a little higher, pray for an inside day on monday or rally, if the downtrend continues, look for 25 (add your decimals, you know what I mean) as the next support.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/QASP8.png

SPNG -

Easier play, look for a break to either side... that's where the price should continue to go.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/SPNG8.png

TXMC - candle down, look for support at 0.005, if that doesn't hold, then 0.004 (which is what I'd bet on if I were in vegas... ie. ABC down).

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/TXMC8.png

The rest of the list, I didn't see anything worth mentioning. As always, this is just my interpretations of TA only, no condsideration of outside forces such as the float, levelII, fundamentals, PRs, were taken. Do your own DD, and remember, these stocks involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Yadda yadda...

dave, if you get a chance can you do a T/A of HASbro for tyler. he's done so much for us being here. i think we owe it to him


plus my question on that is : are options a good play there?

Ill remember that garmin chart for future stocks with large gaps from a CC.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

dave, if you get a chance can you do a T/A of HASbro for tyler. he's done so much for us being here. i think we owe it to him


plus my question on that is : are options a good play there?

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Ok, I'll give it the full blown chart TA... as far as options go, they would be longer term, and I don't have a good feel for that.. the option price decays everyday, and you'd have to call it out way ahead of time... we can analyze it though, I wouldn't run options until there is a clear sign of upward movement. There are much better stocks for option plays now, are you cleared to trade them yet?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Ill remember that garmin chart for future stocks with large gaps from a CC...hmmm....siri?

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are you talking SIRI gapping after an earnings announcement? I don't see a gap for the last one.

Also, his TA is more for listed stocks trading above $5 or so.

That and we're talking intermediate term trading strategies only for that, not for long term... I see a lot of stocks get the earnings gap, fill the gap, then move on up. But if you are looking at intermediate term, he's the master statician, and plays to keep his money, so while after an earnings gap, you could have a further move up, he doesn't risk it unless he's convinced of going longer term, and has a big lead, at least that's my interpretation of his trading.

I'll be back in a bit

yes, ive been cleared to trade options for as long as ive had my account open.. im cleared for LEVEL 2 options trading. does your broker have have 4 levels of options trading?

im a virgin to options so i would have to be walked through the first buy and sell.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

are you talking SIRI gapping after an earnings announcement? I don't see a gap for the last one.

Also, his TA is more for listed stocks trading above $5 or so.

That and we're talking intermediate term trading strategies only for that, not for long term... I see a lot of stocks get the earnings gap, fill the gap, then move on up. But if you are looking at intermediate term, he's the master statician, and plays to keep his money, so while after an earnings gap, you could have a further move up, he doesn't risk it unless he's convinced of going longer term, and has a big lead, at least that's my interpretation of his trading.

I'll be back in a bit

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yeah oops, it looked that way on my chart but i was looking at it wrong, post edited.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

yes, ive been cleared to trade options for as long as ive had my account open.. im cleared for LEVEL 2 options trading. does your broker have have 4 levels of options trading?

im a virgin to options so i would have to be walked through the first buy and sell.

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YEah, I have 2 accounts cleared for options, I remember one of them explicitly listing the levels and I had to choose one. The other, scottrade, I think I just listed the ways I wanted to trade. I'm not sure if the levels are standardized, but I found this online...

http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/15264

I just buy puts and calls, which on this is level II ... I had tried it longer term before, with an expert, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong, so I do it on my own now, but very short term. You'll see that for something short term, its not too complicated.. if you want, I'll post what I think my next trade is, and if you think I have the direction right, you can trade a single contract (like something running $150-350 a contract, and we'll try to target the the stop loss to about $50-70). Not sure what the prices are, but we could play LUV, ie. if it looks like it will close above the flag, buy a call, if it looks like it will close below, buy a put. Let the flag lines be the stop loss targets, and let it ride overnight. LUV is pretty cheap though, so the contracts may be a little cheaper. I'll check on it later. I'll post in that other stuff I had ready for the options school, then I can go over the strategies I've been playing thus far.

If its shorterm, like 1-3 days, we don't have to really go thru all the fancy calculators and such, provided we trade the september contracts.

Dr. Dave- You are killin' it on these T/A charts! We all appreciate efforts and wisdom here!
Matt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

YEah, I have 2 accounts cleared for options, I remember one of them explicitly listing the levels and I had to choose one. The other, scottrade, I think I just listed the ways I wanted to trade. I'm not sure if the levels are standardized, but I found this online...

http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/15264

I just buy puts and calls, which on this is level II ... I had tried it longer term before, with an expert, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong, so I do it on my own now, but very short term. You'll see that for something short term, its not too complicated.. if you want, I'll post what I think my next trade is, and if you think I have the direction right, you can trade a single contract (like something running $150-350 a contract, and we'll try to target the the stop loss to about $50-70). Not sure what the prices are, but we could play LUV, ie. if it looks like it will close above the flag, buy a call, if it looks like it will close below, buy a put. Let the flag lines be the stop loss targets, and let it ride overnight. LUV is pretty cheap though, so the contracts may be a little cheaper. I'll check on it later. I'll post in that other stuff I had ready for the options school, then I can go over the strategies I've been playing thus far.

If its shorterm, like 1-3 days, we don't have to really go thru all the fancy calculators and such, provided we trade the september contracts.

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sounds good..let me know when the next options play is. and ill pop my cherry with 1 contract..

oops...didnt read the rest of the paragragh...thats how anxious i am

The past 4 days have been Umbrellas. That means that there could be a reversal due to indecision by buyers. It means that sellers were winning out during the day, but the buyers managed to push the price back to the opening price at the end of the day.

After long declines this can be a bullish indicator, but it is an indicator that has to be confirmed with a turn either in a bullish or bearish reversal. The accuracy is rated at medium for dependability.

I mixed my words up on the chart. I meant to say -50 or less...Northward!

http://www.coloradohandyman.com/MGLG2.jpg

great annotation bill

btw ...i been running bad in poker and running good in stocks..... cant focus on 2 things tho.... i have a 1mill gaurentee thursday at foxwoods.. need to be ready for that one

Thanks Bass,

I was just trying out that annotation software at http://www.chartfu.com

It is really nice and is only $14.00. I am running the 30 day free trial, but I am going to buy it.

You can do all kinds of stuff with it. :)

Tournament time on Tuesday. Well I wish you the best of luck! Win, buddy!

I sound like I am from the south with that laggin indicator. I just misspelled it and it isn't worth correctin.

Eventually, investors will need to see rising sales in order to become confident about the economy's ability to show sustained growth. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

"We'll get a very good range of what retail sales actually look like" this week, said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Va. Cox noted that retailers from across the pricing and product spectrum are reporting results.

Off-price retailer TJX Cos. and the high-end Saks Inc. report results Tuesday, while apparel retailer Gap Inc. provides its earnings data on Thursday. Home improvement retailers Lowe's Cos. and Home Depot Inc. also release results this week, as do Target Corp., BJ's Wholesale Club and Barnes & Noble Inc.

Stock gains were muted after the Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, significantly worse than the 0.7 percent increase economists expected. The news was bad again Friday, when a new reading on consumer sentiment was much lower than expected. Major indexes tumbled about 1 percent that day.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090816/D9A43L480.html

Good luck out there this week people!!! :)

they can fix that by another consumer driven stimulus. i mean why not? it would help investors no?

Overall -

First compare to market thus far... toys a little behind the SP500 - but, many of the leaders in the SP500 were the companies that had direct stimulus packages... ie. unregulated tarp funds to the banks, etc... so this isn't suprising, expecially since toys go with consumer sentiment, and its the average joe who's losing their jobs that buy toys...

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS1.png


But - (take into account that asian markets are dumping pretty big right now and SP500 futures are dropping at the moment)...

It appears that there may be a chance for the toy index to pop above resistance tomorrow - if it could close the week out up, while the rest of the market craps (if the market craps) that would be bullish for toy stocks... perhaps on the hopes of toy sales later in the year...

On the flipside, if it dumps... perhaps I'd wait on a position.. .or compare how HAS does to the toy index... ie. if the other toys are out of favor, and the index drops, but HAS can bust that $29 level in the next posts, its a go TA wise.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS2.png