SIRI Monthly Thread October 2014

Well I for one am hoping you are wrong again ;)

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Originally Posted by dm_4

Well I for one am hoping you are wrong again ;)

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That would be perfectly fine with me if I'm wrong again lol.

Anyone have an idea when we expect Midas' $2.75 bottom that he promised? I'm counting on filling a rather large order.

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Originally Posted by bdp.

Anyone have an idea when we expect Midas' $2.75 bottom that he promised? I'm counting on filling a rather large order.

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End of year no later than first half of jan.

He posted people should be raising cash (selling) "here" and the price when he posted was $3.16.

I dunno. I spent cash there and bought. Maybe I missed something.

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Originally Posted by Steiny

Hey guys, haven't been posting much, just lurking and reading everyone's posts. Congrats to those with all the good trades. I just wanted to post up a quick analysis for you guys - it's nothing earth-shattering, but figured it was pertinent for everyone to see so you can plan ahead of need be... I just added up the major financial numbers YTD and compared vs. 2014 guidance. Then looked at the YOY comparison for Q4. Unfortunately it doesn't look good for Q4 unless guidance was ultra-conservative. But in general SIRI has guided slightly lower than actual performance. In this case, hopefully they crush earnings, but it doesn't look good right now. I think SIRI will have to have unbelievable 2015 guidance to overcome what the number are showing.

I originally guessed that Q3 numbers would be horrible and Q4 would be great. But it's shaping up to be the opposite, it's interesting because Q4 is typically SIRI's best Q historically.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.... just trying to look ahead beyond the current PPS and market conditions.


Revenues YTD $3.090B vs. $4.150B guidance - implies $1.06B for Q4, which is 6% growth YOY.

FCF YTD $0.825B vs. $1.120B guidance - implies $295M for Q4 which is -3% decline YOY.

EBITDA YTD $1.086B vs. $1.425B guidance - implies $339M for Q4 which is 4% growth YOY.

Net subscribers YTD 1.175M vs. 1.5M guidance - implies 325M net subs for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3. Also, can't really compare this YOY because of GM contract shift in Q4 2013.

Net self-pay subs YTD 0.932M vs. 1.25M guidance - implies 317k net self-pay adds for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3.

Paid promotional subs YTD 242k vs. 250k guidance - implies 7k net paid promo adds for Q4 which is the lowest of the year.

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Looks like an obvious lowball of guidance by Meyer. REMEMBER last year's 4th quarter he got burned on a sub estimate that he had to tweak and the stock suffered badly. And I also remember him stating at one of the analysts conferences he wouldn't have that happen again when he was surprised at the stock reaction to the "tweaking".

I remember that day of the tweaking very clearly. I thought it was the first and only time Meyer truly messed up, and Mel would have never put himself in that position.....ever.

Hey Steiny what happened to newmarketplayers? They took down the site??? Take care.

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Originally Posted by bdp.

Anyone have an idea when we expect Midas' $2.75 bottom that he promised? I'm counting on filling a rather large order.

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Here ya go bdp:

Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post 10/07/2014
It was only because I know you. I really don't know the rest of the folks here even though we've been around awhile. Anyway...

SIRI will sell off over the course of the next quarter, its momentum down will be based largely on the large market sell off. It could get there a bit before or a bit after. So I’ll say over the next 3-4 months. The large market sell off will be attributed to some of the same things I mention will impact SIRI. Example: many of the corp buybacks will ’slow down’ because of the stress in the high yield credit markets. Corp buybacks have helped inflate the equity market (read: help increase the multiple). I can;t tell you when it will end only where its likely to end. But, I will only tell you the move has begun, and we should see a resolution over the next 3 to 4 months. It's not a one day event, its normalization.

so bdp basically to me this means dec/jan time frame.

Faulkner is also correct....Midazz was urging to sell siri about 3 weeks back and to buy back in under 3 bucks.

SIRI Canada went down 15% on Friday. Not sure why... might be the ARPU issue... but ... really who cares about a dividend of 10 cents when what you own shaves a buck in a day, right?

That being said, at $5.99 per share a 10.5 cent div is over 7% per year... that's actually quite attractive and I think it's something which should serve to support the stock here at $6 a share. Pretty strong buy, I'd say from $4.50 overreaction long term head and shoulders if it plays out, up to to $6. Even if it drags for awhile.

I did call $2.75 but you need to go reread the original analysis. I did give a time frame. :) Have a wonderful week!

p.s. earnings were nothing to get excited about. nothing there.

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Originally Posted by midas360

I did call $2.75 but you need to go reread the original analysis. I did give a time frame. :) Have a wonderful week!

p.s. earnings were nothing to get excited about. nothing there.

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Actually we really don't need to go reread...You kept saying on siri down days "2.75 is on the radar". You called 2.75 and when pressed for a time frame you said "soon". When pressed to define soon you said 3 or 4 months, end of story.