SIRI Monthly Thread August 2015

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08-24-2015, 04:47 PM
midas360

This is great stuff. Thanks user!

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

Putting things in Perspective: From a piece I received today from Guggenhiem

Declines 5%+ in the S&P 500 Since 1945= 111

# of 5% to 10% declines =75......Average Decline=(-6%), Avg Length of Decline= 1month, Avg Time to Recovery= 1month

# of 10% to 20% declines = 25, Average Decline=(-13%), Avg Length of Decline = 4 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 3 months

# of 20% to 40% declines = 8, Average Decline=(-27%), Avg Length of Decline = 11 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 14 months

# of 40% or more = 3, Average decline = (-51%), Avg Length of Decline = 22 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 57 Months
08-24-2015, 05:10 PM
bdp.

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

Putting things in Perspective: From a piece I received today from Guggenhiem

Declines 5%+ in the S&P 500 Since 1945= 111

# of 5% to 10% declines =75......Average Decline=(-6%), Avg Length of Decline= 1month, Avg Time to Recovery= 1month

# of 10% to 20% declines = 25, Average Decline=(-13%), Avg Length of Decline = 4 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 3 months

# of 20% to 40% declines = 8, Average Decline=(-27%), Avg Length of Decline = 11 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 14 months

# of 40% or more = 3, Average decline = (-51%), Avg Length of Decline = 22 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 57 Months

So far we are looking at a recovery by November.
08-24-2015, 05:19 PM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdp.

So far we are looking at a recovery by November.

Further food for thought......

In 2014, there were four periods in which the S&P 500 experienced a pull-back of between 5 and 10%. Before last week, in 2015 there had been none.

Prior to recent volatility, the S&P 500 had been fairly predictable this year. Before last week, the S&P 500’s low for the year was on January 15th when it was down 3.2% year-to-date; at its best, it was up 3.5% on May 21st. Most of the year, the market has resided within one percentage point either-side of +2.0%.

Last year, in 2014, the S&P 500 had four periods in which it suffered a pull-back of between 5.0% and 10% (February-Russia’s involvement in Ukraine; late July/early August-European growth concerns; October–Ebola; and December-dollar strength/energy weakness). Despite each crisis, the S&P 500 ended 2014 with a price-only return of +11.4% (+13.4% with dividends). S&P 500 corporate profits were 7.2% higher and the U.S. economy grew by 4.1% on a nominal basis. The world economy, meanwhile, grew by 3.4% on a Real basis, according to the IMF.

Actually this year, things not that much different. We’ve had our share of growth fears (Greece, China, anticipated Fed interest rate hikes) but the U.S. economy, as well as the global economy, looks likely to see growth generally similar to that of 2014. And while corporate earnings have been weaker than they were last year, this has been primarily due to just two factors - sharply lower oil prices and the strong dollar. So what will it take to get markets moving in the second half? The same old answer: Earnings.

On this front, I believe the landscape should improve in the second half. Energy companies should begin to see easier comparisons in the second half of the year, and the strong dollar’s impact on corporate earnings should also begin to fade amid stabilizing values.
08-24-2015, 05:23 PM
midas360

NEW FAULKNER IN THIS MUDDER FUDDER HOUSE!!! This is the kind of information I like to read about. MAGNIFICENT POST! YEEHAW!

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

Further food for thought......

In 2014, there were four periods in which the S&P 500 experienced a pull-back of between 5 and 10%. Before last week, in 2015 there had been none.

Prior to recent volatility, the S&P 500 had been fairly predictable this year. Before last week, the S&P 500’s low for the year was on January 15th when it was down 3.2% year-to-date; at its best, it was up 3.5% on May 21st. Most of the year, the market has resided within one percentage point either-side of +2.0%.

Last year, in 2014, the S&P 500 had four periods in which it suffered a pull-back of between 5.0% and 10% (February-Russia’s involvement in Ukraine; late July/early August-European growth concerns; October–Ebola; and December-dollar strength/energy weakness). Despite each crisis, the S&P 500 ended 2014 with a price-only return of +11.4% (+13.4% with dividends). S&P 500 corporate profits were 7.2% higher and the U.S. economy grew by 4.1% on a nominal basis. The world economy, meanwhile, grew by 3.4% on a Real basis, according to the IMF.

Actually this year, things not that much different. We’ve had our share of growth fears (Greece, China, anticipated Fed interest rate hikes) but the U.S. economy, as well as the global economy, looks likely to see growth generally similar to that of 2014. And while corporate earnings have been weaker than they were last year, this has been primarily due to just two factors - sharply lower oil prices and the strong dollar. So what will it take to get markets moving in the second half? The same old answer: Earnings.

On this front, I believe the landscape should improve in the second half. Energy companies should begin to see easier comparisons in the second half of the year, and the strong dollar’s impact on corporate earnings should also begin to fade amid stabilizing values.
08-24-2015, 05:26 PM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

NEW FAULKNER IN THIS MUDDER FUDDER HOUSE!!! This is the kind of information I like to read about. MAGNIFICENT POST! YEEHAW!

Oh please no!.....No stock analysis here. No price predictions or trading suggestions from me - I'll leave that to the man himself. Just providing some overall macro-economic facts and figures to try and provide some perspective and context. Glad you found it useful though.
08-25-2015, 06:59 AM
waldo29

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

Oh please no!.....No stock analysis here. No price predictions or trading suggestions from me - I'll leave that to the man himself. Just providing some overall macro-economic facts and figures to try and provide some perspective and context. Glad you found it useful though.

Got the rate cut from the PBOC, [obviously] game on today. 36 hours off from when I expected, my apologies. On the low side (.5%) of what I expected (.5-1%). Hard to tell the half life on the equity side of a rate cut; ex-fiscal stimulus (which they don't need, but could use to kick it in gear), shorter and shorter each time for them. Not the kitchen sink I am expecting....yet.

Take profits along the way, its not a permanent solution.
08-25-2015, 09:16 AM
midas360

I WAS RIGHT. THANKS MIDAS! YOU'RE WELLLLLLLLCOME! Midas the forum trader guy!!
08-25-2015, 09:21 AM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

I WAS RIGHT. THANKS MIDAS! YOU'RE WELLLLLLLLCOME! Midas the forum trader guy!!

Midas360 = BM?
08-25-2015, 09:22 AM
midas360

HAHAHA... you're such a fargon corksucker user! :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

Midas360 = BM?
08-25-2015, 10:17 AM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

Look at SIRI drop... go figure. $2.83??? $2.75??? Who knows.

Another great call by you :)
08-25-2015, 10:22 AM
dm_4

Anyone know what the final vol on siri yesterday was? I did not catch it...tia
08-25-2015, 10:27 AM
denco1

Morning DM....41 mn
08-25-2015, 10:30 AM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by denco1

Morning DM....41 mn

ty denco....i was hoping/thinking it was much higher considering the day.

EDIT: would have been a golden opp to have them buying back shares yesterday or even here at these prices.
08-25-2015, 10:37 AM
midas360

Axiom's Dalton Likes Apple, Charter, Liberty Media

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...-liberty-media
08-25-2015, 10:48 AM
dm_4

Denco....what does days like yesterday do to your charting..is it one of those things where its an anomaly and sort of disregard or does is get plugged in and just skews the chit of the ranges, etc?
08-25-2015, 10:51 AM
Nazareth

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=T...HKcOCEzJ6eGgbg
08-25-2015, 11:08 AM
midas360

Sirius XM Settles Wage & Hour Class Action With Unpaid Interns

http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/sir...r-class-54720/
08-25-2015, 11:50 AM
denco1

Quote:

Originally Posted by dm_4

Denco....what does days like yesterday do to your charting..is it one of those things where its an anomaly and sort of disregard or does is get plugged in and just skews the chit of the ranges, etc?

Not experienced enough to know exactly what to make of the carnage to the charts yesterday. We were down big but recovered very quickly. P&F high/low shows a price target of 2.66:scared:.....but unless the market goes into bear market I doubt that is accurate. A hold at previous support of 3.63 ish and the charts should shape up. We could retest the lows and maybe 3.20s with a larger further drop in the MACRO. I guess we will know in the coming weeks. I thought yesterdays initial drop was BS.
08-25-2015, 11:53 AM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by denco1

Not experienced enough to know exactly what to make of the carnage to the charts yesterday. We were down big but recovered very quickly. P&F high/low shows a price target of 2.66:scared:.....but unless the market goes into bear market I doubt that is accurate. A hold at previous support of 3.63 ish and the charts should shape up. We could retest the lows and maybe 3.20s with a larger further drop in the MACRO. I guess we will know in the coming weeks. I thought yesterdays initial drop was BS.

Thanks.
08-25-2015, 12:18 PM
denco1

As far as the BS drop is concerned..it was market wide as many other stocks did the same. When I left home the bid/ask was in the 3.62/63 range and had been there for most of PM. When I got to my office right before the open they dropped it like a rock down to the 3.33 area.....BS. Nice op though. Hopefully it is not an indication of where we are going eventually...that would not be fun....as a long. For Midas.......boat loads of fun:out:

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