SIRI Monthly Thread August 2015

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08-24-2015, 01:04 PM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by waldo29

DM, I posted an update on Sunday night, great job parsing out statements. I said the Bounce may not materialize. Meaning at all or as expected. Which is why I said look to Asia Sunday night in my initial post. No RRR cut caused panic selling. We ended up getting the full 10%+ correction and then bounced. Did you stay nimble and take advantage of it?

As for SIRI, we all know that was a BS open. I'll wait for the closing numbers on the day the gap closes before I decide to keep or sell my longs.

Relax bud....just having a little fun ;)

I do agree with your take on no interest rate hike tho. :)
08-24-2015, 01:06 PM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

In the back of my mind, I am kind of hoping that global investors will turn to the US equity markets looking for returns in dividend stocks and other beaten down equities. Wishful thinking though...

The lesson here is being ready for quick sell offs like we experienced today. Imagine getting Apple around 92, SIRI 3.30-3.40, T 30.97, etc... The list goes on. Keep some cash ready in case it happens again. However, something tells me the retail investor was unable to execute any orders because of application failure.

With your T stock going from 37 to 32 in last few months....i bet you are :)
08-24-2015, 01:14 PM
denco1

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

In the back of my mind, I am kind of hoping that global investors will turn to the US equity markets looking for returns in dividend stocks and other beaten down equities. Wishful thinking though...

The lesson here is being ready for quick sell offs like we experienced today. Imagine getting Apple around 92, SIRI 3.30-3.40, T 30.97, etc... The list goes on. Keep some cash ready in case it happens again. However, something tells me the retail investor was unable to execute any orders because of application failure.

Etrade worked fine. I got a buy of 3.38 at the open and had the op to get 3.33 as well but did not pull the trigger. Sold some 3.65s at 3.70 as well.
08-24-2015, 01:20 PM
midas360

Nice job Denco1... You did good man! I bot and sold Apple. I may try again if we go thru this again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by denco1

Etrade worked fine. I got a buy of 3.38 at the open and had the op to get 3.33 as well but did not pull the trigger. Sold some 3.65s at 3.70 as well.
08-24-2015, 01:32 PM
denco1

Thanks Midas,

Funny, I actually tried to cancel my 3.38 right before it executed but they took the buy and the cancel did not go through. That kept me from buying the 3.33s as I was a bit scared of going in too deep into more margin....should have:(
08-24-2015, 01:42 PM
midas360

It takes a lot of guts to buy when the Dow is down over 1000 pts but it paid off. Make note of the stocks that rebounded nicely off their lows. I will post what I saw/see.

Quote:

Originally Posted by denco1

Thanks Midas,

Funny, I actually tried to cancel my 3.38 right before it executed but they took the buy and the cancel did not go through. That kept me from buying the 3.33s as I was a bit scared of going in too deep into more margin....should have:(
08-24-2015, 01:47 PM
user34615145

You all can blame me for today. Bot back the Sept VIX 15 calls last week at a nice little profit (but way, way, way too soon as it turns out) and then sold the VIX Sept 15 puts - but way, way, way too soon....sigh......story of my life - I'm always way too soon... and if you don't believe me, just ask my wife. :(
08-24-2015, 01:56 PM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

One of the dumbest comments I have ever read on any message board. Fed raises rates on economic conditions, threats of inflation, employment numbers etc. Not on whether they need to reposition themselves for future recessions or to force consumers to save.

I really cannot believe I just read that. Unbelievable. YOU want a rate hike because of those reasons. I have never ever seen either of those reasons ever enter a rate decision by the Fed. I'm outta here!

You're kidding right?
08-24-2015, 01:57 PM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

You're kidding right?

why would he be kidding? Was a stupid comment.
08-24-2015, 01:58 PM
midas360

He's not going anywhere. He's just mad that he's losing his arse. He will come around when the market picks back up. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

You're kidding right?
08-24-2015, 02:00 PM
user34615145

hmmmm. this is interesting......http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...gyholnk0000001
08-24-2015, 02:10 PM
bdp.

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

hmmmm. this is interesting......http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...gyholnk0000001

Desperate move.
08-24-2015, 02:19 PM
bdp.

So China's market is crashing and the government does nothing which forces panic in the U.S. market causing a market calamity which may now, in effect, result in the rate hike being postponed which will help prevent any further dollar value increase that would further harm the Chinese economy. So I suspect, once a postponed rate hike is announced, you will see China suddenly spring into action.
08-24-2015, 02:20 PM
dm_4

Bill Belichick must see something in Reggie Wayne...other teams don't see. Interesting pick up. Could be a number of things. Guy is a consummate pro.
08-24-2015, 02:51 PM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

He's not going anywhere. He's just mad that he's losing his arse. He will come around when the market picks back up. :)

No, not that.... That's it's "dumb" to think that the Fed is influenced by things other than just economic conditions. Any Fed watcher - even those with a healthy dose of Naiveté, knows that the fed is influenced by any number of things outside it's official mandate of monetary policy. Remember Greenspans' comment on "irrational exuberance"? That was directed toward the stock market - not the economy or monetary policy....How about Yellen's comments on "equity valuations are generally quit high" - why would she be at all concerned with that if all she was just looking at the economy and monetary policy?....And you'd have to be a real Pollyanna to think that politics don't play into their decision making process. Anyone with any shred of a grasp on reality knows that Fed actions are influenced by politics during election years.
Many publications as well money managers have expressed concern over what the Fed will do if the economy turns south again and they have no room to cut rates......and we are coming up on an election year.
Muscle is too smart not to realize that, which is why I asked if he was kidding - because he knows better.
08-24-2015, 03:08 PM
bdp.

And here comes the profit grabbing into the close.
08-24-2015, 03:26 PM
midas360

Ah... my bad. Thanks! He's just a little overly sensitive because he's down a lot today. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

No, not that.... That's it's "dumb" to think that the Fed is influenced by things other than just economic conditions. Any Fed watcher - even those with a healthy dose of Naiveté, knows that the fed is influenced by any number of things outside it's official mandate of monetary policy. Remember Greenspans' comment on "irrational exuberance"? That was directed toward the stock market - not the economy or monetary policy....How about Yellen's comments on "equity valuations are generally quit high" - why would she be at all concerned with that if all she was just looking at the economy and monetary policy?....And you'd have to be a real Pollyanna to think that politics don't play into their decision making process. Anyone with any shred of a grasp on reality knows that Fed actions are influenced by politics during election years.
Many publications as well money managers have expressed concern over what the Fed will do if the economy turns south again and they have no room to cut rates......and we are coming up on an election year.
Muscle is too smart not to realize that, which is why I asked if he was kidding - because he knows better.
08-24-2015, 03:53 PM
midas360

Last minute decision... Averaging down on SIRI.
08-24-2015, 04:11 PM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

Last minute decision... Averaging down on SIRI.

sure ya did :)
08-24-2015, 04:41 PM
user34615145

Putting things in Perspective: From a piece I received today from Guggenhiem

Declines 5%+ in the S&P 500 Since 1945= 111

# of 5% to 10% declines =75......Average Decline=(-6%), Avg Length of Decline= 1month, Avg Time to Recovery= 1month

# of 10% to 20% declines = 25, Average Decline=(-13%), Avg Length of Decline = 4 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 3 months

# of 20% to 40% declines = 8, Average Decline=(-27%), Avg Length of Decline = 11 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 14 months

# of 40% or more = 3, Average decline = (-51%), Avg Length of Decline = 22 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 57 Months

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