SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 10/06/08

Mel said that besides the Feb debt the other debt will be extended. Just want to remind everyone that he said that. If the Feb debt is handled we should be good.

Also, considering the stock is so undervalued, it could jump up on anything.

If mel can pay off the feb debt out of his own pocket, then I don't see that being hard to finance from a big institution.

ps. remember also that when the UGLY deal was struck supposedly he was unable to use the XM numbers (because the merger rules kept him from seeing XM's books)

No use in announcing anything right now with the overall market tanking.

Yes?

All Mel would have to say is that they have enough cash on hand to pay the Feb. debt. due to extra revenue from "best of" subscriptions.....end of story.

If Mel can pay off the Feb debt as easy as you say....WHY hasn't he yet? Just because the market is bad? How much worse can it get? And whay benefit is it to wait?

If Mel had announced today during the rally...you think Sirius would still be trading in the 30 cent range? I don't think so.

The SOONER Mel announces a deal the BETTER. The market is going to do what it's going to do. But if the deal gets done...then people with money on the sidelines will notice....and when the money starts flowing back into the market again...some will flow Sirius' way.

Mel said he WANTED to announce SOONER than later. So thats what makes me believe he hasn't secured a deal just yet. Otherwise, he WOULD have announced it already with the launch of the BEST OF. It would have been a DOUBLE whammy of positive news.

It doesn't serve Sirius to WAIT. If they have refinancing...THEY WOULD ANNOUNCE IT.

Plus...whoever they struck a deal with would have leaked info to that effect. We would have heard SOME rumor. ANYTHING. But we have heard NOTHING.

Friggin,
Remember, Mel can't pay the Feb convert early. It's not callable. So no matter what he decides to do, it won't be done until February. It's in the company's best interest, in my opinion, to consider ALL options and not make a hasty decision right now. If the credit market improves in the coming months, they can borrow money... if it doesn't, they might end up paying cash for a big chunk of it(assuming Q4 is FCF). If economy is still bleak, they might offer a new convert with a higher interest rate and lower conversion price, or they might issue more equity. Bottom line is there are several options and it seems prudent to wait until the dust settles before deciding which move is best.

Again, Mel would not have to secure financing or pay it off early. All he would have to say is that due to increasing revenue that they have enough cash set aside to pay it off...

Then he could focus on the debt out in the future of '09 in a much better position...

D,
Don't you think it's too early to KNOW if we'll have enough cash on hand? I'm thinking that we will, but we don't know how bad Q3 was yet and how much of the $440mil we burned through, and it's still very early in Q4. We don't know how bad the auto market will be over the coming months and though we're optimistic about best of, it's too soon to tell if it will generate the kind of cash we're hoping for. It may be premature for Mel to declare anything for certain.

The big thing to remember is that cash is all a numbers game.

Need cash to pay for a satellite or towards the convert? Just use the Loral Credit line to pay for the satellite and save the cash for the convert.

Need to pay GM some money? Just use the GM credit line and save the cash for the convert.

They WILL have enough cash on hand to pay off the convert if they need it, regardless of how bad everything else is. They have enough open credit lines to assure that.

My question to someone that knows more than I do (Homer preferably): Can Sirius XM buy their own debt issues on the open market? Back when I was looking at the bonds, it looked like they were selling UNDER the issue price. Can Sirius XM buy them on the open market instead of calling them? Seems to me that could be one hell of a way to save a bit of money if they are able to.

Newman,

Does Goldman have those bonds for sale on the market? They might not want to sell them, because they want them reconverted......

Wow, the selling in this market is just relentless. The Dow in now down 500 after dipping below 8000 twice already. Where is the friday rebound I was looking for? That bounce this morning was another head fake?

Another hour to see how this unfolds.......

Still have some dry powder. SIRI pretty stable considering how down the market has been - banging it's head on the wall at .41 after bouncing off of .36 and then .375........

oops, just broke the wall now -.43.......

Those bastards did it again. The last tick at the close below the bid and the ask went through at .43.......how do they do that day after day?

Market tried to close green, but couldn't quite make it going into the close - still way off the lows....

SIRI closed up 7.5% at .43........trading between .44 - .449 in AH now...

Takes money to make money. To my own demise this POS stock has got me strapped. Bought way too many shares at once and put way too much of my cash into it. To see all the others stocks that i follow at these prices makes it even more depressing knowing I cant buy any. Altough it was my fault for buying this stock who knew the merger would have been so ugly. Mel needs to get out of the tanning booth and give us some confidence. This stock doesnt only nail ya in the ass at .44 it rapes your wife while you miss the buying opportunity of a life time.

Tis true. Tis true.

If ONLY!

If ONLY I didn't average down in Sirius that last time when it was at $1!!!

I would have a nice chunk of cash to play with right now.

But what ya gonna do?

Earn some money and hope the market stays down long enough to take advantage of these bargains.

I think you've got some time.

Then there is always the fantasy that Mel will announce a great refinance deal and the stock will pop to $3 so u can get out and THEN throw your cash around.

Id sell every last share if it hit $3. Your right though frigg I think there is time.

So how will you position XM Sirius as a solution to advertisers' overall media mix?

Mr. Karmazin: I used to always pride myself on being the highest price. Now what we're saying is we could be Wal-Mart. If you're a national advertiser and want to reach an audience in all 48 states, we will be the low-rate provider. We recognize the fact we're just starting in the advertising business, so we're not able to give you these big audiences or these numbers that you want. But you know what, we're able to give you a cost per spot that is very attractive. And by the way, however you want to measure that -- whether it be awareness, results -- we believe that we can get you the return on your investment.

Remember the spongetech results? I thought that the spongetech commercials starting and the sudden increase in sales was interesting. Mel is working, albeit somewhat quietly, I believe he is working...ps. the timing seems very good for siri, down economy and companies probably looking for low priced advertising.

this is a good interview, Mel continues to mention how much of the sirius advertising (for its own product) was against XM. Now they can switch gears.

Here is a link to that adage interview...

http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=131316

Isn't it amazing. Sirius used to be worth $4 billion, before the merger. Now the combined company can't even hold a $2 billion cap.

Wow... Anyway, I'm contemplating another purchase. My last purchase was $1000 worth at .87. I think I'll pick up another $1000 on tuesday. See where it goes, if it drops pick up another $1000.

I figured at .43 avg. pps, I should be able to average down to $1 or less. What do you all think of that?

Barring BK, time will set this right. Mel is managing the cost side of the equation very hard right now. The market is batshit right now & there will be a great deal for buyers for the next couple of months minimum. I think that the odds of BK are 5-10% maximum, probably less if Mel squeezes the spending hard enough. If the company survives this, (and it will) it can survive anything. The odds of us seeing 2.00 per share in 2009 are almost 50% in my mind. I have 414K shares at an average of $3.00 per share and I will continue buying until I get under $2.00 per share. Like most of you guys I am down huge on this play, but I have gotten out of worse situations than this before in speculative deals and I do not feel hopeless at all. The company has critical mass, a great product,& an environment that will cause it to grow up and stop wasting money like drunken sailer. I also think that Karmazin has forgotten more than any of us know about negotiating a company in the media business twords bigger & better things. Things will work out. Hang tough, buy if you can....

Seamless and Krypto,

I admire both of your positive attitudes. In situations like this, it is important to keep things in perspective and not let the fear and doom & gloom get you down. There is less potential downside risk now than there has ever been IMHO (SIRI is down about 90% YTD).

SIRI closed green today and was up in AH. This is positive with the market down today. I know that SIRI is way down here, but the last time it was at this level it rocketed towards $10 in a very short time frame. It is even more important to have conviction at this level. It's too late to sell, and you don't want to sell too soon when it rebounds...

If you don't believe the BK fear parade, don't let it cloud your judgment. SIRI will recover or get bought out at a huge premium - and I don't think Mel even wants to do a deal right now in this environment. He would wait for a better time when the premium would be higher. SIRI is so cheap here, it's almost too risky to trade it - as you might miss a huge upwards move when you think it's going to retrace. What has changed with SIRI since the bounce from .68 to 1.08 other than the market tanking? SIRI can and will have another move like that at some point. SIRI still had the second largest short position on the Nasdaq according to the Sept. 30th report. Could be #1 now for all we know. There will be a short covering rally at some point....if you believe that they will take care of the Feb. '09 debt and that BK is not in the cards. I don't think it's in the cards for several reasons - their huge revenue is #1.

The bond holders that "hedged" the bonds with all those short shares will want to book some profits at some point - they are up huge for crying out loud! Wouldn't you? They will more than likely take long positions as they drive it up with short covering. The huge recent drop in SIRI can't go on forever. It's way oversold with a huge short position...

Q4 should get a huge boost from the new "best of" packages, new portable, and "a la carte" radios. Auto sales are down, but the ramping penetration rate will smooth those #'s over. These things in addition to merger synergies should boost the needed revenue to face the '09 debt issues with strength. I also think that there are some other potential catalysts in the wings, like the iPhone/iPod touch application, Xbox360 and PS3 streaming, a new holiday ad campaign, new advertising partnerships, and new content? What about all the new subscribers from Mad Dog?

I can't believe how cheap SIRI is here, but there is the chart on my screen. I look at this chart and it is amazing that this is a newly formed monopoly with 19 million subscribers and growing. It truly is incredible to me, but there it is. Could it get cheaper? Could it go towards $10 in a few months like last time it was down here?

If we are in a depression, didn't people gather around their radios for entertainment back then? Sirius/XM is cheap entertainment and a great value as a gift in these troubled times. I am listening to my portable XM INNO as I type this. These radios advertise themselves too. I got one and then my mom, brother, sister, and many friends got one after being exposed to mine (I have several XM and Sirius radios). The more satellite radios that are out there - the more people are exposed to them. Everyone who listens to satellite radio in their car is exposing every passenger that they have to a demo of the product. As satellite radio continues to become standard in new car sales, the exposure of the product to the American consumer will continue to spread and drive retail subscriptions. The iPhone/iPod app. would also be huge for consumer exposure. Free advertising at it's finest.

What about Apple putting sat rad receivers in their iPods? Talk about free advertising and sub growth....

After surviving these '09 debt issues, they are free to run. The continued OEM penetration ramp, new partnerships, new packages and content, new radios, and the merger synergies should drive heavy growth in the next few years.

SIRI is on sale for a limited time....

I hate to say it Demain, but I do not see the iPod ever linking up with Sirius/XM. Apple already has downward pricing pressures with the iPod as it is. I don't see them adding a dual-chipset to allow for both sirius/xm.

In the depression, media was huge. Extra... extra.. read all about it. Right. Isn't that the imagine we get of the paper boy selling papers. Well now it's time to listen all about it on CNBC amd Bloomberg -- with seamless, nationwide coverage.

I will not be caught betting against Sirius. I will buy more and average down as soon as I can. Hopefully the shares remain cheap. I truly believe in Sirius, and I feel I owe it to myself to average down. I know this isn't what all the experts will tell you to do. And I'm not recommending it to any of you. But for myself, I've sacrificed much, much time into researching this company. And I've suffered the pain of losing thousands. I was wrong on one thing, I admit. I was wrong on my timing of entry! I was 100% right on the merger passage.

I'm going to stick with my gut instinct on the fundamentals of this company. I'm going to average down. And if the experts say no, I say.... what do the experts know these days? How credible are the experts these days? This stock has suffered, and in some ways I identify with it. I continue to believe Sirius is a story of success, adversity and ultimate victory. And I will put my money where my mouth is and hopefully watch as the "experts" get hit hard in the pocket book as Sirius rockets.

I am ver positive on the outcome of this company. And I will accept the risks.