nice buy bdp :)Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
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nice buy bdp :)Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
Perhaps. We will see...Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
So far @ 3.46 pre market we have completely wiped clean 12 months of gains, and then some. Unreal! Along with the non blowout 4th quarter, it looks like The slaughter may continue all the way down to 3.35 or less. (Waldo's 2.75 is still looking doubtful in my opinion unless we enter into another massive world recession.)Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
well the first 2.75 was a complete debacle. Is he calling for 2.75 again? I thought that was midas....oh hell i dunno hard to differentiate between the two on that subject.Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
I was under the impression it became completely Waldo's call when it looked like a complete joke. And now as the market (not just Sirius) continues to decline, it no longer looking completely out of the question, but in my opinion, unlikely. We would have to have had an awful quarter for that to happen. The only thing that continues to kill me is how absolutely fragile Sirius is as a long investment. It seems the sp reacts negatively to virtually everything and positively to very little. This has been the case since 2008 when I bought my first block of shares on a whim.Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
Did anyone else get the Billy Joel concert pre-sale offer? I finally see how SiRi and LYV can help each other and it feels a lot like the Amazon Prime model.
who knows...all i know is once that 2.75 call was forecasted....sp went to 4.20. :thumbsup:Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
I think the powers to be short the shit out of this stock make their billions and then let her rip. this is the second or third time we have seen this in as many years. Macro fear doesn't help.
I agree. An early climb to 3.52 is such a tease! Will inevitably crater within minutes as it follows the rest of the market down the toilet.Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
And now back up out of the toilet...Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
I will ask again Brandon and your 20 aliases here -
$3.93 is 20 times 2014 FCF per share. $4.84 is 20 times 2015 FCF per share. $6 is 20 times projected 2016 FCF per share.
Sirius is growing FCF per share 20%+ per year. What is with this disconnect in share price??? What am I missing here? Is there a fundamental reason why Sirius is trading in the $3.50 range? I don't want to hear about charts. What am I missing on the fundamentals? I truly don't understand the disconnect. Is Steiny reading this? Say something Steiny!
With all our dozens of aliases, I suppose I may as well be Steiny and answer your question. The bottom line is Sirius has and continues to trade the way it does for no better reason than it being trapped in the stigma of being a stock that trades consistently irrationally. I hope we all have answered your question.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
That is not an answer that addresses any fundamentals at all, Brandon. Sirius has 3 avenues for growth - radio subs, video subs, and connected vehicle services. It is growing Free Cash Flow 20%+ per year. Why is it trading at less than 12 times 2016 projected FCF per share right now? What is the reason?Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
On another note, I have continued to gamble with shipping stocks moving in and out of them risking a relatively small amount for what continues to be unbelievable gains. If anyone is interested, my picks have been DSX, DRYS, SB, NM & NMM. Not for faint of heart as greed and poor timing can wipe out your investment very quickly. But what I have been doing is buying into a market weakness and bottoms that close in on previous bottoms and then just wait for the pop. Rarely took more than a few days so far. Only sold at a loss 3 times and ended up buying back lower. So far I have nearly tripled my initial investment and am playing with house money at this point. Don't know how long this will last, but please do your own due diligence before risking a dime!
Muscle,Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
The disconnect are the charges in the first and second quarter and the last two quarters / The settlement was taken pretax dollars aprox 113m 2nd quarter and 11m 3rd and 4thQ. There was a one time tax adjustment 1st Q which pushed the tax rate up to 57% which is bullshit. These charges kept the EPS in line this year just as the charges for settling all of the bad debt have done the past few years. Look at the other expense line items in previous years you will see them easily. You are right about its a cash flow story I just wonder how many chapters are left in the book. I am going to question my outside accountants when they come in to close year end about how these guys legally can keep doing this but I'm sure its just loopholes in the system.
Interesting answer, but I am still not buying it from a valuation standpoint when FCF per share came in at + 23%. Sirius has never been valued on EPS by the street. I think there is a disconnect on valuation. Maybe the street believes car sales will fall off a cliff? But SAAR came in at 17.55 million in January with all the fear in the market. The disconnect is palatable from an investment standpoint.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raptor
I think that $3.52 is STILL the toilet. and this stock is just a big turd.Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
You know what I am going to do? Listen to Peter Lynch and John Bogle's market theories. In the short term markets run on emotion. In the long term markets run on fundamentals. I have total confidence that this company can grow FCF per share at a 20%+ clip as it has already proven. I am going to do exactly what I did in 2008 and 2009 after I bought. Shut my eyes and wait.................
Your observations an arguments are completely valid. But keep in mind that you are dealing with Sirius which historically mostly moves significantly on negative impacting fundamentals and minimally on positive ones. And then there is the WTF factor which moves the so for no apparent reason. This all raises the question of just what exactly is controlling the sp? Of course this is something we can only speculate on since very little seams to make sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
The entire market is a big turd. Sirius is merely a skid mark.Quote:
Originally Posted by user34615145
I don't disagree with you all I'm saying is the stories would be EPS 2014 .08 / EPS 2015 .12 instead of .09 increase of 50% instead of less than 10% and PE 2014 52 vs PE 2015 29 ttm. This is the strongest and only reason I can find for the disconnect.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13