Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 8-24-2009

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Originally Posted by john

underway, Your really starting to kill the joke on Johnny.

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oh..sorry....didn't see that part of the thread......was asleep...my bad.:sleeping:

This is a new phenom - the 3 o'clock dive. The last two sessions have been similar. Gap open, then a 3 PM, the sell off starts. Crazy.

If this keeps up, it'll make things real easy for swing traders.

man . . . some great posts today!

john especially is on fire . . . the point about Q3/Q4 being interrelated is a GREAT catch on his part!!

if you mess with john on the numbers you will get burned

he's like a hawk

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Originally Posted by john

You bastard, how did you know. I was working on my reply as you wrote this.

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I knew doctorex was in for rough sledding as soon as I saw his same old outline pop up again . . . but this time with a different color wrapping paper . . I think doctorex just tried to "re-gift" us . . I knew it would not escape your watchful eye

p.s. I get your point about Vic/Dave & BB similarity

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Originally Posted by john

Tyler said this:

P.S. WHAT FINAL SATELLITE PAYMENTS, I thought they were all paid for. Dont tell me, I have to get my stones out again. Where is johnny!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Hey Bastard,Sats were paid for already,money was set aside in 08 and put into interest bearing account and pulled out to pay when needed,it is accounted for in Expenses,we saw this in last CC report,Sirius Roadkill agreed when i posted it in General chat thread,i'm done with this issue and tired of explaining it to you ,you numnut,this is what i mean when people don't listen,i have to spell it out and i'm tired of explaining to morons...























P.S take that stoning,B'stard......:p:D
Sound familiar!!!!! LOL

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

I knew doctorex was in for rough sledding as soon as I saw his same old outline pop up again . . . but this time with a different color wrapping paper . . I think doctorex just tried to "re-gift" us . . I knew it would not escape your watchful eye

p.s. I get your point about Vic/Dave & BB similarity

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S-Kill,John's burning down the school line had me LMAO..

Ho,here you go Nimrod,i'll repost it for last time.....lol


This should end Capex for Sats for good,found this in the 2Q report,SXM must have floated a bond for construction of the fm-5 and XM-5 and XM-6 sats because they are expensing it in interest and cap interest in reports,posting it here..

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...67355/d10q.htm

page 10-12 of 10-Q report

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Originally Posted by john

P.S. You are correct while the liberty deal is baked into the PPS right now, you cant just take it out of the equation and drop the cost of those shares in the end, like the dumbass did. Thats not even getting into the shares that have and will be added to the count. I mean where the hell do you think they are getting the 120 million shares that Mel has the option to buy (that was for the dumbass not you Sirius Roadkill). He is just one man. Believe me there is a reason they got those shares and while alot may not be used, alot will.

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Yes! Totally agree . . . plus, Mgmt has come to us at each of the last 2 annual meetings to ask for more shares . .

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

S-Kill,John's burning down the school line had me LMAO..

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oh me too . . but I was lmao way before that part . . amazing how he has the patience to repeatedly go through misinformation line-by-line

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

oh me too . . but I was lmao way before that part . . amazing how he has the patience to repeatedly go through misinformation line-by-line

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Lloyd has turned him into the energizer Essayist,never saw him post this much,but it is funny to read and informative also..LOL

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Originally Posted by TSavery

Point taken. I have often spoken of the Q3 to Q4 relationship, and it is easy to slip into the assumption that readers already know this. However, with new readers all of the time, it is important for readers to know the dynamic at play

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Ur not factoring in any royalty charges or internet charges for Q3? I think with churn and self pay holding, there is an outside shot at positive earnings.
For you to discount the notion entirely, is a bit of a leap of faith, based on new revenue steams. How can you apply old metrics, to any entirely different revenue base? Plus, this New GM deal might start to impact there bottom line, as they are counted at sale, meaning the cost of the radio was already been factored in. Hence the jump in car sales from Q2 to Q3 will add revenue, and since Chrysler and Ford are barely back to churning out cars, the need for new radios still wont be as high as last year even. Basically in Q3 and Q4 a lot of pend up demand for cars, but the need to replace the inventory isnt yet there. Remember, there were hundreds of lots that from Chrysler that will never need new cars again. Hence lowering the total cost to add new radios to newly built Chrysler cars at this time. Not to mention if subs go positive again. Which they very well could. Now comparing around 1 year out, so Q3 08 was terrible new car sales numbers. Just like Q1 and Q2 of 09 was. Now have 3 back to back quarters of declining car sales, hence the pendelum will begin to start impacting promo subs again, this time to the positive.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Hey Bastard,Sats were paid for already,money was set aside in 08 and put into interest bearing account and pulled out to pay when needed,it is accounted for in Expenses,we saw this in last CC report,Sirius Roadkill agreed when i posted it in General chat thread,i'm done with this issue and tired of explaining it to you ,you numnut,this is what i mean when people don't listen,i have to spell it out and i'm tired of explaining to morons...























P.S take that stoning,B'stard......:p:D
Sound familiar!!!!! LOL

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I will say boy when people say the insults do nothing, they are wrong, they hurt. I am feeling terrible now.

According to the SEC filing today, they sill have over 200 million in cash payments due. That either has to include a sat charge, or they havent paid off the Dec bonds yet. Which if Im not mistaken, we still havent seen a seperate filing for. If Im wrong, please correct me. Are they trying to hide how little cash on hand they really have, by waiting to pay these Dec. bonds off officially. I know they have money for it, but have they actually used it to completely remove all Dec. bonds yet?

relmor your the only one that makes me actually read!! got to take my a d d medicine when you post, LOL, whats on tv

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

Ur not factoring in any royalty charges or internet charges for Q3? I think with churn and self pay holding, there is an outside shot at positive earnings.
For you to discount the notion entirely, is a bit of a leap of faith, based on new revenue steams. How can you apply old metrics, to any entirely different revenue base? Plus, this New GM deal might start to impact there bottom line, as they are counted at sale, meaning the cost of the radio was already been factored in. Hence the jump in car sales from Q2 to Q3 will add revenue, and since Chrysler and Ford are barely back to churning out cars, the need for new radios still wont be as high as last year even. Basically in Q3 and Q4 a lot of pend up demand for cars, but the need to replace the inventory isnt yet there. Remember, there were hundreds of lots that from Chrysler that will never need new cars again. Hence lowering the total cost to add new radios to newly built Chrysler cars at this time. Not to mention if subs go positive again. Which they very well could. Now comparing around 1 year out, so Q3 08 was terrible new car sales numbers. Just like Q1 and Q2 of 09 was. Now have 3 back to back quarters of declining car sales, hence the pendelum will begin to start impacting promo subs again, this time to the positive.

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Relmor....

1. Revenue that comes in for royalties goes right back out the door. In theory, it is a wash and will neither help nor hurt EPS.

2. Self pay churn is stable, yes.

3. Costs in Q3 are always high, and that trend will continue, especially because of oem production bumps. GM is counted at the time of sale, but COSTS happen at manufacture.

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

ISEG was content to fill buys until .76. Then they slammed it shut there. Probably opens around .75 , .76, trades sideways for a bit on open, and judging by volume, and any buy or sell imbalance on the open, we either test .70 or test .80 at that point. Test of .80 holds, test of .70 holds, IMO. I think thats our range today. If we can close closer to .80, maybe take it out tomorrow.

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good call relmor. i havent followed the intraday charts at all lately. what indicators did you use to come up with your targets? strictly volume?

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

According to the SEC filing today, they sill have over 200 million in cash payments due. That either has to include a sat charge, or they havent paid off the Dec bonds yet. Which if Im not mistaken, we still havent seen a seperate filing for. If Im wrong, please correct me. Are they trying to hide how little cash on hand they really have, by waiting to pay these Dec. bonds off officially. I know they have money for it, but have they actually used it to completely remove all Dec. bonds yet?

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Cash payments are interest on debt and content..Bonds are paid off and no filing needed because last filing said new bond would be used to pay off XM debt which is what dec bonds are,so ne need to file,Tyler confirmed this for me..

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Originally Posted by TSavery

Relmor....

1. Revenue that comes in for royalties goes right back out the door. In theory, it is a wash and will neither help nor hurt EPS.

2. Self pay churn is stable, yes.

3. Costs in Q3 are always high, and that trend will continue, especially because of oem production bumps. GM is counted at the time of sale, but COSTS happen at manufacture.

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Tyler,actually Royalty money goes indirectly to bottom line as it is now expensed in and those expenses will be moved out and new category for Royaslty fee will be established in general fund..it will be a surplus counted as cash on hand..and also improve ARPU by same %.
and unless you have inside info,no one knows details of new GM deal,but Mel said it would significantly improve bottom line for SXM.
Also XM is deal with GM and new updated filing shows 5 mil in inventory of radios sitting there,so expense of ramp up is accounted for already..

johnnyirish = the new homer .BOOM

So is the 3rd time the charm to break through .77 on Tuesday ?