SIRI IntraWEEK Thread 08-03-09

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08-03-2009, 02:07 PM
imromo24

Quote:

Originally Posted by frigginregan

We're at .47 cents and holding firm. If there is a pull back due to more lost subs on Thursday....how far ya think we pull back? Down as far as .35? Or ya think we go even lower?

Of course nobody knows. Just trying to get a feel for what y'all are thinkin.

What could Mel announce Thursday that would ECLIPSE any bad news about the sub numbers?

Now that we are actually getting the pre CC runup Im feeling better about there is a good chance we are going to break .50 tomorrow or wednesday...after the CC and we lose more subs Im sure we will at least see .42 again.

you know we always get burned by some one time charge and word is that theres going to be a one time debt refi charge, if we post earnings of less than the (.01) like the (.07) we did last time than we'll be treading in the .30's again with that combined with lost subs.

Ask me again tomorrow and I'll have another gut feeling im sure.

Whats got me worried about selling for a pullback is the fact our FCF was barely negative last quarter, in fact if mel had donated $3.6 million we would have been positive. What happens if we turn positive i can only hope would carry us upwards from .50 and out of the .40's with some guidance.
08-03-2009, 02:12 PM
toxdoc

Quote:

Originally Posted by frigginregan

The thing that REALLY pisses me off about the media tho....is that for the last few days ALL we've been hearing about is "CLASH fo CLUNKERS!" 24/7.

The newscasters are practically GIDDY with how this is GREAT news for the economy and that it's the best example of a stimulus plan that actually WORKS.

And YET....there has been not ONE mention in all this coverage of Sirius. Not ONCE.

Oh...they've had the automotive companies on...and the auto supplier companies have been highlighted on how MUCH they are benefitting.

But NOT ONE WORD about Sirius....perhaps the company that will most DIRECTLY benefit from this program.

It is ASTOUNDING.

A little over a year ago, Cramer was SCREAMING about Sirius EVERY DAY. Saying how it'd shoot up over $5 instantly after the merger. How it was the BEST thing since sliced bread. How they would OWN the car market if the merger was approved.

And now....not even a mention? This just PROVES beyond the shadow of a doubt of a conspiracy against this stock. It PROVES that before the merger the plan was to pump the stock. CNBC had the merger in the news EVERY DAY.

Let me ask you something, so they PUMP the news non stop pre merger....and then BAD coverage post merger?

Oh thats not exactly true. They covered it just after the merger when they switched from pumping it....to TRASHING it. They in tandem with Goldman Sachs shorting bashed the stock into oblivion.

And then they stopped coverage altogether.

Until the threat of Bankruptcy in February.

But again, when Sirius AVOIDED that....with what should have been GREAT news...the media once again put them on "ignore".

They were like the disappointed rubber necker who when passing a car wreck was let down there were no bodies and sped on.

When you look at the totality of the past year. And of the coverage(or lack there of) in relationship to the shorting agenda of Goldman Sachs....the picture becomes crystal clear.

The conspiracy is not only real....it's in your face. There is no denying it.

Blaming the stock's performance on whether or not CNBC mentions it is a little simplistic. Let's be honest, SXM doesn't have a great track record when it comes to marketing itself. If the company wants to be talked about, then they should take the necessary steps to make sure they stay in the news. I'd hardly blame CNBC.
08-03-2009, 02:33 PM
frigginregan

Of course Sirius could do a better job marketing itself. I am one of the biggest critics of when it comes to Sirius NOT aggressively marketing itself. It's horrible.

However...In this post I was specifically talking about the complete lack of coverage when there should be some about Sirius.

I don't expect Cramer to come out and pound the table at what a great BUY Sirius was like he did MOST of last year leading up to the merger.

But SOMETHING. It's almost like the staff got a memo NOT to mention Sirius, and if they did...do do it disparagingly.

Case in point, when outside reporter Jim Goldman called in to Fast Money GLOWING about Sirius and the record breaking number of it's iphone app downloads....the LOOK on their faces was PRICELESS. Jim Goldman never let up and they looked liked they swallowed poison.

And that is my point. The coverage on this Clash for Clunkers deal is EVERYWHERE. And yet, not one mention....not even an aside or a simple nod to Sirius and how it's good news for them.

It really does add to the impression that the media is consciously making an EFFORT to NOT mention Sirius.

I could see if it was just one piece in a busy news day. Then It'd be kind of silly to complain. But this Clash for Clunker thing is the TOP story ALL day for the last week and will go on being the top story....and yet....not one word about Sirius.

This you'd HAVE to admit is just a little odd? No? This directly benefits Sirius like NO other auto parts company. It's huge.

Again...I'm at a loss.
08-03-2009, 02:36 PM
Siriusowner

The Decade's 25 Biggest Tech Flops

Honestly "It did not cross my mind..."

http://tech.msn.com/products/slidesh...9&imageindex=7
08-03-2009, 04:09 PM
Sirius Roadkill

autodata

July sales pace comes in at 11.2mm
08-03-2009, 04:26 PM
imromo24

with only 5 months in the year left they should have a pretty good idea by now
08-03-2009, 04:41 PM
Sirius Roadkill

Quote:

Originally Posted by imromo24

with only 5 months in the year left they should have a pretty good idea by now

it's gonna be a pretty good year romo! they are running the company based on 9mm oem's

problem is . . they are not gonna tell us any of that on the 6th except possibly to guide-up on ebitda

my call is that they will guide-up to $400mm ebitda

the take-away from that should be that positive FCF for full year 2009 will then be within reach for the first time in the history of satellite radio

:D
08-03-2009, 04:42 PM
frigginregan

Hey, not as good as 16million units....but at least better than the previous 9 million.

I'll take it.

Cheers
08-03-2009, 04:48 PM
Sirius Roadkill

Mandatory radio show on thursday 8/6

May the Sirius Buzz community count on a radio show for this Thursday in order to help review and digest the CC??
08-03-2009, 06:15 PM
TSavery

Quote:

Originally Posted by Siriusowner

There once was this company that was named "SIRIUS" that really, really suck...

Wait a minute... that company really exists ... And I am at its cheerleaders website ! CRAP !

Sorry, but this is not a cheerleading website. Readers here would not stand for simple cheerleading. If they wanted the rosey picture there would be other places to go. Here we talk about the good as well as the bad.
08-03-2009, 07:21 PM
TSavery

Hey everyone....

2 special edition radio shows this thursday. Read the article, and let me know what you think of the idea.
08-03-2009, 07:34 PM
stang3O2

I like the idea of that Tyler
08-03-2009, 08:12 PM
SiriusBuzz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

Tyler/Roc . . why is Google not running the Palin article through it's news menu??

showing dated material from 7/31

:confused:

You just need to sort the news results by date and you will see that it is there; http://news.google.com/news?um=1&ned...=all&scoring=n

Quote:

Originally Posted by TSavery

Hey everyone....

2 special edition radio shows this thursday. Read the article, and let me know what you think of the idea.

How are you going to listen to the call and talk about it at the same time?
08-03-2009, 08:53 PM
Siriustunes

What could be good news?

Hello all. I have been thinking about the the positive things that should come out at this weeks CC. We have all expressed our frustration in the past with what seemed to be an anemic marketing effort from SXM. I think that is over and here is why:

1. The iphone app released and heavily downloaded
2. Strong sales push in the dealer used car market ( I am anxious to hear these numbers)
3. Significant campaign for existing on the road SatRad units that are lying dormant.
4. Billboards in key metro areas
5. Rosie coming onboard
6. Renegotiation of GM contract (Hopefully the lifetime per radio number has been lessened or deleted.)
7. Broader instal into Toyota

The one that really excites me is number 3. Lets just say that since 2000, 40 mil vehicles have been installed with Satrad. (Someone correct me if I am way off. I could not find any hard numbers to confirm)
Given there are 19 mil subs, we will just say they all have auto installs. That leaves 21 mil dormat rads out there waiting to be turned on. The promo I recieved was 6 mos for $4.99 per month. So $30 bucks. I jumped on it. When I called the cust care, I asked if they were busy with the promo. He said yes it was busy. So lets just say it was 5% busy. If SXM direct marketed 21 mil possible sales and received a 5% response, that is over $31 mil in the next 6 months. Now factor in it looks like that there will be a 750,000 boost in new auto sales, with probably 80% of those with Satrad and the stage is set for a sub boost now until the end of the year.

Nothing but exciting prospects ahead. I just hope Mel gives some metrics to support my theory.
08-03-2009, 08:55 PM
Sirius Roadkill

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

How are you going to listen to the call and talk about it at the same time?

Hmmm, this is a little perplexing . . are you going to stream the conference call through Sirius Buzz Radio so we do not need to make the link through the Sirius XM site??
08-03-2009, 09:07 PM
Sirius Roadkill

Quote:

Originally Posted by Siriustunes

3. Significant campaign for existing on the road SatRad units that are lying dormant.

to your point . . .

Mel K

"so obviously we are aware that we have an awful lot of radios that are out there that have the radio in them, and there�s opportunities for our shareholders to monetize those in the future . . . we are aware that we always have the ability to light up some of these radios. We do it from time to time to try to recapture some of them as subscribers"
08-03-2009, 09:13 PM
Sirius Roadkill

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

You just need to sort the news results by date and you will see that it is there

but if you click this link:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:SIRI

which is where a Sirius XM stockholder would most likely go for up-to-the-minute news briefs . . . that article does not appear to scroll-through the sandwich board to the right of the chart . . other SB articles have hit there quickly but not this one?

in fact . . the last title to cycle-thru there was the Q2 preview from July 21 . . the Moritz and Palin pieces should definitely have been cycled-thru . . would have picked-up nice hits

that's where you need to pop-up in the news-flow (no searching required) to get the hits on the article . . imo
08-03-2009, 10:08 PM
TSavery

Quote:

Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

You just need to sort the news results by date and you will see that it is there; http://news.google.com/news?um=1&ned...=all&scoring=n

How are you going to listen to the call and talk about it at the same time?

LOL....It will be tricky, but I will make it happen. In essence, having the 10Q released ahead of time gives me the agenda for the call. Thus, while certain things are happening, I will be able to comment.

I will be playing the call in one ear, and broadcasting with the other.

Are you going to join me on the show?
08-03-2009, 10:16 PM
imromo24

How soon do you think the ad supported channels on XM that are run by Clear Channel will be turned on in the cars that don't pay a sub (Pink for instance)
08-03-2009, 10:19 PM
imromo24

Did everyone see that the after hours high was .49....it was for 250 shares.

and around 200k+ shares traded at .48 to close AH.

Tomorrow should be fun.

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