SIRI Intraday thread: Friday May 29

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

GoodMorning John,how are you?
Just got a reuters update from Vanguard this morning on SXM earnings and it is not good,they are estimating (-.10) for 09 and (-.05) for 2010..don't swee how they get it,especially for 2010.but there it is..
your right about 2Q subs and other FCF metrics after i saw a break down on GM and CHrysler sub %'s.with those 2 shutting down for weeks or 2 months will kill us short term unless we drastically reduce Churn below 1.7%...

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Well the good news is they must think that they are only going to lose a penny for each of the rest of the quarters or I would guess 2nd Q loss of a penny, 3rd Q loss of 2 pennies, and 4th quarter even or a penny profit. As far as 2010 gos I think they are figuring that OEMs will pick up again in that year and will drag the bottom line down with it. As long as they can get to FCF positive for the year it wont matter though. First EBITDA positive then FCF positive then true profit, they should all follow each other rather quickly if they can start to pick up subs again.

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Churn is key.

How about that slide that said subs become profitable after 12 months and 29 months. How many millions of subs did we add 2 years ago...this could be the BOOM BOOM POW.

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The problem there is the revenue still stays the same it just means the up front cost was already paid for. Hence why a down turn in OEMs is not all bad, huge upfront cost there.

how about this from the slideshow

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Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA: Now Expecting
More than $350 mm in 2009

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hey romo i didnt notice that but i did expect it, they are on pace for more than 400 million assuming they can continue the trend they established in the 1st qtr.

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Originally Posted by john

Well the good news is they must think that they are only going to lose a penny for each of the rest of the quarters or I would guess 2nd Q loss of a penny, 3rd Q loss of 2 pennies, and 4th quarter even or a penny profit. As far as 2010 gos I think they are figuring that OEMs will pick up again in that year and will drag the bottom line down with it. As long as they can get to FCF positive for the year it wont matter though. First EBITDA positive then FCF positive then true profit, they should all follow each other rather quickly if they can start to pick up subs again.

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Never mind my bad comment,i forgot about .07 loss in 1Q,what the hell was i thinking.that is good for 09..they are est. .015 loss for 2Q so it must be even or positive for 3Q and 4Q 09..2010 -.05 makes no sense with hardly any debt due and more revenue coming in..

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Never mind my bad comment,i forgot about .07 loss in 1Q,what the hell was i thinking.that is good for 09..they are est. .015 loss for 2Q so it must be even or positive for 3Q and 4Q 09..2010 -.05 makes no sense with hardly any debt due and more revenue coming in..

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Very true. I don't think it will be even close to -.05.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Never mind my bad comment,i forgot about .07 loss in 1Q,what the hell was i thinking.that is good for 09..they are est. .015 loss for 2Q so it must be even or positive for 3Q and 4Q 09..2010 -.05 makes no sense with hardly any debt due and more revenue coming in..

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Getting subs is not cheap, especially through the OEM channel.

omg im seeing green in my portfolio today, wtf i havnt seen that in a couple weeks :o

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

omg im seeing green in my portfolio today, wtf i havnt seen that in a couple weeks :o

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Green??? What's green look like. I swear, I'm watching roughly 75 different stocks. the ones that I own are the only ones that haven't found themselves in the green. I'm patiently waiting for the next bump upwards for everything.

Good for you though. As for me I'll have to keep pushing to close deals as my job to make some loot. HAHA.

O My God......Siri is up 1 billionth of a cent!!!!!!!!!WhoRahHHHHHHHH!!!!!

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Originally Posted by stkdn

O My God......Siri is up 1 billionth of a cent!!!!!!!!!WhoRahHHHHHHHH!!!!!

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So, if you sell now does that make you a billionaire?

obv just turned negative for the first time today going into the lunch hour, i dont think it will last long.

I have seen posts referring to the price dropping to the teens. What is the rational for this?
I know that this is an irrational stock right now but come on. Get real.

I was one of the ones that thought we would be getting that bump right about now. And after we break the 200 (on a close) that a slow steady climb was going to happen. If it doesn't happen in a week or two I will have to concede that I missed that one. I actually thought we wouldn't drop below the 50 too. I did miss that one. But the idea that the price is going to the teens has no reality to it.

Can someone enlighten me on the reasons why some think this is possible if not inevitable?

i dont think any1 here thinks that, yahoo the people saying that are bashers or just retarded and hoping for a ridicilously low buy. i think .29 is the lowest we could go. i did not expect .30 honestly. still doesnt change my mind about how low we can go though. specially now that i can see alot of support at this level, which will create some momentum. obv already going positive. last week the obv wasmostly negative with slight pops into the positive, today its the opposite, looks like the old uptrend. hopefully this carries into next week.

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Originally Posted by airman

I have seen posts referring to the price dropping to the teens. What is the rational for this?
I know that this is an irrational stock right now but come on. Get real.

I was one of the ones that thought we would be getting that bump right about now. And after we break the 200 (on a close) that a slow steady climb was going to happen. If it doesn't happen in a week or two I will have to concede that I missed that one. I actually thought we wouldn't drop below the 50 too. I did miss that one. But the idea that the price is going to the teens has no reality to it.

Can someone enlighten me on the reasons why some think this is possible if not inevitable?

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No one here thinks we are seeing the teens,it was a joke post to someone else on another site saying we would..

This snippet from orbitcasts latest article was sent to me today by a reader and its nice to know I am not the only one catching heat and that I am not alone in my thoughts.

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People ask me why I write about Slacker, when this is a satellite radio blog.

I get heckled a lot for that (and I get heckled for covering Pandora, mobile music, and the iPhone). But nobody complained when Sirius and XM were going through the merger process, and were trying to prove that both satellite radio and these services were part of a greater common marketplace. It seems hypocritical to me that I should cover the competition only when its advantageous, and then stick my head in the sand when its not.

The fact is, these internet/mobile services are competition, and are significant threats. They always have been, and they always will be.

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competition, yes, significant threat, no.

This is what worries me, now the media is spreading the word about what I have been saying for months, you can stream 3g internet radio right to your cars speeakers. This is bad for Sirius XM.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...052900753.html

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Originally Posted by airman

I have seen posts referring to the price dropping to the teens. What is the rational for this?
I know that this is an irrational stock right now but come on. Get real.

I was one of the ones that thought we would be getting that bump right about now. And after we break the 200 (on a close) that a slow steady climb was going to happen. If it doesn't happen in a week or two I will have to concede that I missed that one. I actually thought we wouldn't drop below the 50 too. I did miss that one. But the idea that the price is going to the teens has no reality to it.

Can someone enlighten me on the reasons why some think this is possible if not inevitable?

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Because of GM BK. I personally don't think SIRI will hit the teens, but that's what's causing the doom and gloom crowd to shake in their boots. GM BK is a huge thing and is hurting a lot of companies. No surprise that SIRI is getting clobbered because of it. It's an obvious cause and effect scenario. I hear the conspiracy theories, but don't buy it. Weak hands heading for cover. They'll be back!

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

This snippet from orbitcasts latest article was sent to me today by a reader and its nice to know I am not the only one catching heat and that I am not alone in my thoughts.

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Charles/Relmor,no disrespect,but knock it off with this Slackdora shit already,we already posted our thoughts and reasons for it being a competitor or threat to SXM adnauseum(sic)..it is a threat to market share of revenue not the death of SATRAD..but with the Annual meeting stating we will use Social network and all smart phone outlets to expand SXM i think your prayers were answered,late but still answered..