SIRI Intraday Thread: Friday April 24th / Weekend Edition

So I have to ask was this duke guy or girl correct or not? I think he was not.


I will say it again this stock can not be called on a minute to minute, hour to hour, or day to day, basis. There are to many shares out, to many being traded and/or because it is a penny stock, ect., ect. In general there are to many *fluctuating* varibles that can not be figured out. The best you can do is make a guess and get lucky if it is correct. How many times does it have to do just the opposite of what people think it will do before some people get it. That is not to say that there are not trends, there are. We can say that the general trend is up with spikes up that then are followed by a big drop. Those trends are not something I would count on except to say that there would be some profit taking off a big up tick (that has always happened and is all part of human nature). How many times does it have to happen to you, where because something has happen so many times before, you think it will happen again and then it does not and you get screwed.

Looks like we had a decent day with more consolidation and low vol. guess brokers were trading with themselves again...was away from P.C since 1pm,rather refreshing ...i'll be checking in on the weekend periodically,going on the deck to grill and have a few cold ones with the neighbors,70 and sunny,spring has arrived...Everyone have a great Weekend!!!

Patience is king and greed is the friend of patience...

JohnnyIrishXM

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was away from P.C since 1pm,rather refreshing

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haha thats why we didnt have a sell off at the end :O

i was watching the stockshock trailer, lol i dont know what to say, its funny that certain board members are in it looking all professional, i always pictured you guys as unshaven neanderthals :O

Well from my point of view, this week was pretty interesting (with regards to SIRI and stocks in general). In short, I took the advice of a very good investor I know and sold off enough shares of SIRI to get my original investment back.

I still have about 75% of my original shares, and they are in essence "free" from here on out. I'll let 'em ride looooooong. Nothing to lose with "free" shares.

I took the cash from that sale of shares and used it to buy some shares of a much more (to me) expensive stock. If it increases as I think it should...I'll do the same and get my original investment back and let the rest ride.

Rinse, repeat.

So far, this tactic has worked. I hope to continue it and really build up a nice portfolio that I can trade with, using mostly "free" shares.

Or, maybe it'll all go down the tubes. These days, it's anybody's guess.

This all may seem rather basic to a lot of you, but to a new-ish investor, it's very intriguing and quite the education.

hey---that's my birthday!! I should have bought some then, too (you know this year it was a Friday....) I ended up buying mid-March.

short interest report is out

http://uk.reuters.com/article/market...44458120090425

FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
Level 3 Comm (LVLT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 122,858,362 141,837,349 -18,978,987 -13.4
Intel Corp (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 80,535,046 95,304,819 -14,769,773 -15.5
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 166,898,959 181,243,884

FIVE BIGGEST POSITIONS:
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 166,898,959 181,243,884 -14,344,925 -7.9
Level 3 Comm (LVLT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 122,858,362 141,837,349

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Originally Posted by john

So I have to ask was this duke guy or girl correct or not? I think he was not.


I will say it again this stock can not be called on a minute to minute, hour to hour, or day to day, basis. There are to many shares out, to many being traded and/or because it is a penny stock, ect., ect. In general there are to many *fluctuating* varibles that can not be figured out. The best you can do is make a guess and get lucky if it is correct. How many times does it have to do just the opposite of what people think it will do before some people get it. That is not to say that there are not trends, there are. We can say that the general trend is up with spikes up that then are followed by a big drop. Those trends are not something I would count on except to say that there would be some profit taking off a big up tick (that has always happened and is all part of human nature). How many times does it have to happen to you, where because something has happen so many times before, you think it will happen again and then it does not and you get screwed.

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Some times following a stock like SIRI takes an objective look. Take a look at a 30 day chart, a 60 day and a year chart.

I get caught up into looking too micro myself. Just a thought and no reflection upon anybody or yourself....just a thought.

I personally get caught up in the DOW for the day and don't see where it is going over all and screw up. I am breaking that bad habit. There will always be loses and gains. The overall picture is what is essential in a lot of cases. This has helped me tremendously.

Bill

That's some solid advice - even though I trade chart patterns mainly using the daily charts to find my setups (though for the entries and exits I go as low as the 15 min charts, and use a 5-10 min live chart), it is imperative I include the weekly, and many times the monthly charts. When I have them all going, I make the best trades, when I don't I get more losers - in fact, I'm finding it helpful to have different kinds of daily charts to get a grasp on movements. I guess thats why a lot of day traders I know use the daily charts to get their long term outlook, and longs, while centered around the weekly charts, look at yearly charts, and use daily's to enter/exit. Think about it, one couldn't get in the majority of the higher priced stocks on Mar 8, 9, 10 without looking at a monthly chart that went back years and years to time it. I actually made a big mistake the other day, as I jumped in something else after just looking at a few charts (luckily, I'm up for now). It wasn't until today that I convinced myself I'm ok for a day or too - and that took long term charts to figure that out, and it also gave me a better exit plan for a stop loss if things didn't go my way.

any thoughts that the upswing to .63 was the reverse of the wild downswings we have been seeing...i wouldn't be surprised if several had sells at .6ish and that move wiped 'em out. Just like those large spikes down cleared the stops.

I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's

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Originally Posted by imromo24

any thoughts that the upswing to .63 was the reverse of the wild downswings we have been seeing...i wouldn't be surprised if several had sells at .6ish and that move wiped 'em out. Just like those large spikes down cleared the stops.

I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's

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Hi Imromo,your exactly right about clearing out sells in the .60's and high .50's
also the buys in low .40's...if you think about it we have raised our bottom floor about .10 every three weeks since Liberty deal.

First it was the teens after march 6th,then.20's till march 17th,then .30's till april 10th or so,and now in the .40's..all with .10 -.15 spikes up and then back to new bottom for consolidation...In the stock world that is a speedy trend upward and very bullish channel...

If we can get Positive EBITDA(Earning Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Adjustment's)and FCF (Free Cash Flow)for 1Q with guidance for next 2-4 Q's
of improved numbers of Subs,Plus Churn rate Stabilizing along with Improved ARPU (Avg Revenue Per Unit)and decreased SAC(Sub Aquisition Cost),we should be on our way to well over a $1 SP by August.

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Originally Posted by imromo24

any thoughts that the upswing to .63 was the reverse of the wild downswings we have been seeing...i wouldn't be surprised if several had sells at .6ish and that move wiped 'em out. Just like those large spikes down cleared the stops.

I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's

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The upswing tested the 200 mda. In my opinion as the 50 mda comes in below it will form more support for an eventual breakthrough the 200 with vigor. As long as really really bad news doesnt come out I think this will be resolved in the next few weeks. How many times it tests the 200 I dont know but I wont be caught selling there.

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Hi Imromo,your exactly right about clearing out sells in the .60's and high .50's
also the buys in low .40's...if you think about it we have raised our bottom floor about .10 every three weeks since Liberty deal.

First it was the teens after march 6th,then.20's till march 17th,then .30's till april 10th or so,and now in the .40's..all with .10 -.15 spikes up and then back to new bottom for consolidation...In the stock world that is a speedy trend upward and very bullish channel...

If we can get Positive EBITDA(Earning Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Adjustment's)and FCF (Free Cash Flow)for 1Q with guidance for next 2-4 Q's
of improved numbers of Subs,Plus Churn rate Stabilizing along with Improved ARPU (Avg Revenue Per Unit)and decreased SAC(Sub Aquisition Cost),we should be on our way to well over a $1 SP by August.

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I would not expect any guidance on anything except EBITDA for the next few quarters. SIRIXM has already said they were not expecting to give any until the end of the year, with the exception of EBITDA. I am betting we see a big increase in ARPU unless they had to give alot of free months to keep subs. We will know though because if they have a churn of lets say 1.7 and their ARPU only gos up 5 cents and not to much more added to revenue because of the prepays to keep the old rates (about 100 million). That will tell us that they gave alot of subs months free to keep them. Ether way it will be what I would consider a not so bad quarterly report. Any increase in ARPU is great, keeping churn at 1.7 in this economy is great, and even only adding an additional 50 to 100 million is great. I believe what I just said is the low ball estimate. Just think if they were able to keep churn in check naturally. You could see ARPU go up as much as 20 or maybe even 30 cents that would be huge. It would be the same (20 cent increase in ARPU) as them adding revenue of 350,000 subs. So you could see even if they lose 200,000 net subs they are still a net increase of 150,000 subs as far as it is considered on a basis of revenue.

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Originally Posted by airman

The upswing tested the 200 mda. In my opinion as the 50 mda comes in below it will form more support for an eventual breakthrough the 200 with vigor. As long as really really bad news doesnt come out I think this will be resolved in the next few weeks. How many times it tests the 200 I dont know but I wont be caught selling there.

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Not me baby, I am selling again at sixtyish and I dont care if it keeps going up (the higher and faster the better). I dont care if I never buy it back again, I just want to get rid of alot of the shares I got and the only way I can do that is if I am not tempted to buy it back again.

2500 more @ .43 and still BUYING......I'm not selling a single share for the next 2 years at least.

Cheers,
-Whynot

Long: BCS, DFT, CSE, DO, [B]SIRI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by imromo24

I have a good feeling based on this that it cleared a lot of the holders of shares below .29 and we are building quite a strong floor in the .4's

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Not me. Avg. of $0.22 and hoooooolding. I have no stops set.

Just waiting...

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Originally Posted by Whynot

2500 more @ .43 and still BUYING......I'm not selling a single share for the next 2 years at least.

Cheers,
-Whynot

Long: BCS, DFT, CSE, DO, [B]SIRI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I'm holding out for $1.50, if that ever decides to happen, I'm selling half my position.

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Originally Posted by john

I would not expect any guidance on anything except EBITDA for the next few quarters. SIRIXM has already said they were not expecting to give any until the end of the year, with the exception of EBITDA. I am betting we see a big increase in ARPU unless they had to give alot of free months to keep subs. We will know though because if they have a churn of lets say 1.7 and their ARPU only gos up 5 cents and not to much more added to revenue because of the prepays to keep the old rates (about 100 million). That will tell us that they gave alot of subs months free to keep them. Ether way it will be what I would consider a not so bad quarterly report. Any increase in ARPU is great, keeping churn at 1.7 in this economy is great, and even only adding an additional 50 to 100 million is great. I believe what I just said is the low ball estimate. Just think if they were able to keep churn in check naturally. You could see ARPU go up as much as 20 or maybe even 30 cents that would be huge. It would be the same (20 cent increase in ARPU) as them adding revenue of 350,000 subs. So you could see even if they lose 200,000 net subs they are still a net increase of 150,000 subs as far as it is considered on a basis of revenue.

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Your right John about guidance for subs,but it would be nice,wasn't expecting any until at least 2Q or definitely 3Q...Ebitda Guidance of greater than the
300 million for 09 already given,Raised due to best of rev increase and subs extending out
for free online listening plus 2.99 fee for same,would do wonders for FCF and profit in 1Q giving SiriusXM 2 straight FCF Q's..

Good move why not. Buy and hold, thats what I'm doing, keep your shares in a margin free account so they can't be lent out by your broker to some shorter and hold on. I am looking at 60 months but as a measure of where this company is headed look at the action on the calls that should give you an idea of what the near term action on the stock is. If you want to trade a little in the gaps that's fine too, I can't I dont have the time but if you follow the analysis from a technical side by Relmor2003, Cos1000 and the other whiz'es then you will be fine. Accumulate and sit tight the best is yet to come. Now that the Liberty deal is closed this is a whole new company. We survived the worst and nothing could break us, we will win inthe end, we have content and the best product. F the NAB, F the politicians who supported the NAB and F the wall street manipulators who tried to put SiriusXM on skids row, including Cramer.

http://www.markayi.com/satellite-radio-how-its-work/

here's a good read haha, i got through about 2 paragraphs before my brain started melting

wow, that wasn't real was it? it was like a million "hit" words mashed together to form a pretend story from a robot!