Please value Sirius Market Cap today, Fair Value, With Full Dilution. Everyone!!!

I love it, but I don't believe it. The expenses are probably higher and therefore less profit. I would be satisfied with something in the neighborhood of 500 to 600 mil., or about 10 cents per share.
Considering a PE of 12 to 15, we are talking of a sp of 1.20 to 1.50.

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Originally Posted by doctorex

doctorex speaks:


siri's eventual market cap depends on its establishment as an unassailable monopoly, which is currently happening. siri's service, i.e., unlimited content into a moving car with no ads, cannot be duplicated by any device or service. teen agers will pack their ipods, and listen to the same menu over and over, but the really prosperous grownup people will migrate to siri.

this means that over the medium term the market will come to realize, correctly, that siri falls into the exclusive club of big monopoly names such as goog, msft, and ebay. these companies, in their growth phases, had extreme p.e. applied by the market. siri will be next.

the monopoly provides the subscription growth, the monopoly provides the pricing flexibility (i.e., if the vendor is a monopoly, where else are you going to go?) and the monopoly releases siri from a lot of costs also, like duplicate admin. and marketing.

let's make a few assumtions and a few calculations:

presently 20,000,000 subs, arpu $10,

therefore monthly rev. $200m, annual rev. $2.4b.

expenses and financing annual $1b (unknowable at this time).

therefore profit annual $1.4b.

estimate p.e. 30 (low for a monopoly).

therefore enterprise value: $42b.

estimate common shares 6b after liberty converts.

therefore estimate sp = $42b / $7b = $7.00.

higher if subs are higher, higher after the price hike in two years, higher if expenses are lower, higher if p.e. is higher.

look for possible $30 sp (optimistic but possible).


doctorex has spoken.

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Originally Posted by Wirestripper

This is maybe a little off topic, but not much as it deals with the S&P 500 PE ratios currently.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1247...om?source=feed


It appears Barron's is calling a bottom!

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Thanks for posting that - I didn't catch it in my usual bookmarks....

We can hope they are right! Not holding my breath......

...appreciate the link -

While reading it, I noticed a link off to the side that I found most interesting that referred to who paid for the content on the paidcontent.org interview with Sirius' founder.

My apologies if this is actually a repost.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1263...cle_sb_popular

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wirestripper

This is maybe a little off topic, but not much as it deals with the S&P 500 PE ratios currently.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1247...om?source=feed


It appears Barron's is calling a bottom!

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4.1B
$.86

and S & P will retreat and see 625-650 before we can call a bottom in overall market

I for one cannot help but say "THANK YOU" to all of the senior dudes here that are truely trying to educate / help us "newbies" try to understand this thing! I suspect that i am not alone when I say that alot of us are using money but still have debt ... so we are really using money that perhaps we should not be using (my story is a bit worse and will, at sometime down the road tell it). Again - I think I speak for all of the "not so sophisticated" stock dudes here ------- THANK GUYS!!!!:D

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Originally Posted by RickF

I for one cannot help but say "THANK YOU" to all of the senior dudes here that are truely trying to educate / help us "newbies" try to understand this thing! I suspect that i am not alone when I say that alot of us are using money but still have debt ... so we are really using money that perhaps we should not be using (my story is a bit worse and will, at sometime down the road tell it). Again - I think I speak for all of the "not so sophisticated" stock dudes here ------- THANK GUYS!!!!:D

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What he said. Now a little something for the shorts.:whip:

If Sirius can hit $9.0 without merger and with all the negatives, Why can't it do so with all the positivity around it?

My point is, Never try to analyze this stock to come to a target price. it could be 0.05 and it could be $30 as doctor says..

All calculations of assets, incomes, EVs work for other stocks, not for this one.. sorry!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by relmor2003

I am stating fair value, right now being very very conservative is
4.5 Billion dollars. With current dilution thats around .70 cents a share.

Homer, SL62, Mogami, ASM640, Killer, everyone please comment. All senior members please answer for newer investors so they can have a target price that makes sense to them.
It would be helful I feel to evaluate SIRIUSXM market cap again at this time, now that the dilution is offical.

THANK YOU!!!!

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Until we know the true value of the spectrum, all the satellite's and their capabilities, there is absolutely no way to place a realistic value on SiriusXM.