Originally Posted by
LMaze
Rel: I have to read all of your posts and Cos 100's post to get a flavor of the dialog which past between both of you. I have been impressed with all your posts from the day I began following your blogs on the SA site about a year ago.
As you know From the day that the Malone deal was announced I was generally pleased since I truly believed that the threat of a BK had passed. I also believed that Mel truly wanted to avoid a BK if only to keep his rep intact. I didn't like his scare tactics then and I don't like them now, and I think you were dead on in your analysis of this. However, Right now, in this economy he really pulled off a major coup, eliminating anymore speculation about the near term future of this company. Each of us who posts here now all agree on the long term prospects of this company, but your previous question also still holds true. How do we truly value this company?
I think that the answer is very complicated because most of the old methods of valuation appear obsolete, especially as it relates to SiriusXM. In a nutshell, I think we must address the following issues, in no particular order which would give us a clearer picture of the valuation of this company and the consequent increase in the share price which is sure to follow.
1. How much cash does SiriusXM have in the bank?
2. 4th Quarter earnings?
3. Churn rate
4 Actual number of subscribers as of 1/1 09
5 1st q 2009 projections for subscribers
6 Ad sales in the last two quarters and projections for the remainder of 2009
`7 progress of the synergys promised after the merger
8 The removal of the two burdernsome contracts that they are stuck with, Oprah's 55 million and Martha Stewart's 7million plus. ( I don't think anyway can justify these two deals, these channels have bombed with subscribers.
Both expire this year.
9. GM and its future, nuff said (add in Chrysler and to a lesser extent Ford)
10 THE ECONOMY in general
11 The marketing direction of this company going forward as it relates to retail subscribers, new products etc.
12 what's next from the NAB? and that crazy congressman Edward Markay of Mass who wants the FCC to require Sirius to produce a radio that includes a free HD receiver inside.
13. What's up with the Apple I-PHone application?
Rel, these are questions that i rattled off from the top of my head, and all of them affect the valuation of this company near term and long term so in the end here's what I see,
Between now and March 17 a very small increase in the share price overall, say six cents maybe less, depending on other economic news.
After March 17 another pop we could see 30 cents and then my friend slow growth thereafter, with the R/S coming at the end of the year with a share price of somewhere between 30 and 40 cents ( which grossly undervalues this company but this is the market that we are in.
Seriously, given the spectrum that we own and its potential applications plus worldwide expension via the internet, our hardware and content providers, I would say right now the stock should be way north of one dollar, and despite all of the B/S that has gone on with this company we are GROWING! If that doesn't beat all...
One other thing, I'm continuing to buy and will buy more tomorrow, probably 30,000 shares. My question to you is all my shares are held in Street name, is it possible to buy a "penny stock" and obtain your original shares?
I'm in for the very long term, I truly believe that any investor contemplating an investment in Sirius must plan for a 60 month time horizon to see significant gains, notwithstanding short term gains that can be made by day trading as you do. Just trade your account and keep some I can't see how we can lose. I never have and never will.
The weather here in Stratton, Vermont is terrible, foggy and warm the snow is being eaten by the fog, the base is eroding, making it tough to snowboard. Was out a little this AM going home to New Jersey now. The best to you all , always.
