hahaha:D:D
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hahaha:D:D
i got an email from gm, hmm interesting
"As you may have recently read, Liberty Media Corporation announced on February 17 that they have entered into an agreement with SIRIUS XM* to provide loans in exchange for a 40% equity interest and Board of Directors representation.
It is our understanding that this agreement enables SIRIUS XM to continue to develop the opportunities previously noted in the merger of SIRIUS and XM and it helps strengthen the capital structure and financial flexibility of the company going forward.
We are excited about this positive development that will better enable XM to continue providing great content and innovative programming.
GM will continue to work with SIRIUS XM as they venture into this new partnership.
Richard M. Lee
Executive Director, Satellite Radio Services – GM"
WHISPER IS REPORTING Release Date: Not Confirmed 2/26/2009, Monday
Before Open.
historically Mel announces earnings in the mornings Mon, Tues, or wed. when he announces on a thursday it has been bad
There's quite a bit of spin going on in the Yahoo finance boards right now on SIRI. I have ridden the roller coaster long enough now I'm not sure what to believe. Most of the dialogue is over the latest iphone/SIRI app article at: http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2009/02...-radio-iphone/
, plus the upcoming Q4 numbers, plus possibly pure delirium. Thought I'd pass the word - I'm usually just in here reading what the rest of you post.
LONG/SHORT/#&@#% SIRI
Anyone here read the latest Duke post on yahoo? I usually don't pay much attention to much of what goes on over there, but at least he can form coherent sentences and I always find it an interesting read. I think if we only add 150K subs in the 4th quarter, we are in serious trouble. I know the economy is bad, but 150K subs in what has usually been in our best quarter just sounds ridiculous to me. Anybody have thoughts on this?
The post can be found here:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...07&tof=3&frt=2
I actually responded to his post in the message board. I agreed with him they may miss by a penny, but his subs are crazy. His media angles are correct, as May debt is due on what day? The day before we might hear rumors how that will be taken out. Im not kidding, well I am, but not by much. Nothing would surprise me, not even another media bk scare, that Sirius adds fuel to by waiting too long. If they go this route, expect to stay under .20 cents till May.
Its really all up to how Sirius wants to play it. Hows it been since the merger.
150K new subs is unrealistic in my opinion. I’m basing this off of people I casually know through work who bought Sirius (not XM, which is kind of scary) for X-Mas. These are people who I would never think would buy this product and especially after market. It was only 6 different people but I only work with about 50. The question to me isn’t going to be if enough new subs were purchased. The question is did few enough people cancel subs with the channel switching to keep the churn in-line.
Let's be honest. If churn goes up significantly the street is not going to care if it is the economy or canceled channels. They are going to say Sirius XM is no longer a product people want to keep and continue to blackball this company. Fair or unfair? Doesn’t matter.
The other problem I have with the sub numbers is that consumers didn't have to deal with as much confusion due to the ongoing merger. If I'm not mistaken, the merger was still pending at the end of 4th Quarter 07 and the numbers were still decent. Sure the economy is bad, but like I said before, I just don't buy 150K subs. Although I've been wrong before...
On another note, does anyone know of any charts that represent where the majority of subs are located throughout the country? I'm in the Northeast and it really seems like every single person I know has SiriusXM. I'm just curious if there are areas in the country where satellite radio isn't catching on.
Sirius/XM did the big channel changes around the middle of November - also being the middle of Q4. This was a smart move. Any cancelations would then be softened and absorbed by what is traditionally both Sirius and XM's strongest period of the year - going into the holiday shopping season. Remember that the combined company was really pushing "Best of" during this time. This would also dampen any revenue loss due to cancelations while also giving subscribers access to new content and another reason not to cancel.
Many subs I personally know listen to their Sirius/XM radios the most around the holidays for the Christmas music. Not a good time to cancel for people on the edge.....
I think Q4 numbers will be much better than expected........too much doom and gloom.
SIRI is sitting right on it's 50 DMA......will it offer support? I think so......
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIR...d=p89775725136
Jerky action typical of a stock bottoming. Extreme low tested, longer term support holding. These techincal points, plus a strong quarter,combined with Malones money, credit, and the s & p rating upgrade SHOULD be enough for it to move higher, and hold, for the first time since the merger. If it doesnt, then there is no explanation, other than naked shorting.
Demian, agreed with the timing. When I first heard about the channel shifts I thought this was going to hurt much worse. As for the bottom line for Sirius you are spot on. However, I really worry about the churn. That has been a very bright spot for Sirius and I would hate to see that go up. Doom/Gloom? Maybe, but realistically I can't see how it would stay at 1.7%. I hope I am just over-valueing the importance of mainainting this low churn
this stock should move up, but we have to wait for the mm's to allow it too.
Lots of buzz in the external bulletin boards today... highlights are:
1. buzz about NiceMac's latest posting showing 4 platforms and the new StarPlayr apps.
2. rumors back and forth over 4Q earnings anouncements and potential consequences
3. at&t - cell phone revenue......
4. Howard TV
5. Cross-loading/packaging deals with DirecTV/SIRI
6. At least some pure delusion from those whose averages are above $1.00
Hope the rest of you are having an entertaining day. I now turn over the buzz to you more researched SIRI investors... I need another drink
:D
It just occured to me that they were giving away 3 months free for anyone who wanted to cancel, so maybe they were able to control churn that way.