Market Watch for week of July 13, 2009

Here is an example of the three day rule, and it is a loose one. Look at both of the two runs. They gapped fast. The first one took how long before dropping? Three days.

The second run..gapped up fast again, but on day three the indicator was oscillating, which would have been the time to get out, before day four when it officially dropped.

In addition, look at day four....tons of volume and trying to make its way up but failed. When you have a stock that is oscillating with peaks and downs and tons of volume...the honeymoon is over.

These are just general observations.

http://www.coloradohandyman.com/mglg.jpg

what is the link for the stock market game again?

The blue arrow follow the three day rule and the greens are official runs. Compare volumes during each of these intervals.

The second run in BCLE was much more sustained, as it grew more naturally.

http://www.coloradohandyman.com/bcle.jpg

www.google.com typed in :
simulator site:http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2279

found it :) http://www.chartgame.com/

wow... how do i post a screenshot...
i'm not even joking i just batted 100% on this game just by using my one new candle stick pattern i just learned

Hey Bill ,Having a problem with the mm,s ...no ice...lol

http://img169.imageshack.us/i/seanchartgame.jpg/
look closely at all the buys and sells, they're really good :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ray

Hey Bill ,Having a problem with the mm,s ...no ice...lol

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Who, me or you? I have ice, but I left it in the freezer.

I am trying to make a point that day two is the time to really watch the gap and volume.

Currently, I am only doing shots. I can gauge the buzz better. When I use ice cubes it sneaks up on me and wipes me out. There is nothing worse than waking up and the computer monitor looks like an hallucination. :D

You are up late on Friday night..have you been into the mm? :rolleyes:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by billhart22

Back to the three day rule again. It doesn't always apply, but it does so many times.

The first day a stock takes off, everybody is all excited and people are cramming money into it.

The second day, everybody is convinced that the mother-lode is coming.

The third day, the smart traders are getting out and the newbies and the greedy are throwing their money in.

Day four, after the stock starts falling, people are convinced that the stock is going to fly up again......................wrong!

I think the sharper the gap up, the more dangerous for disappointment. If a stock rises at a natural level, day by day, then you have something to work with.

If it gaps up and skyrockets too quick it will come down again.

I am going to post some charts to explore this with comments on the top of the post before the charts themselves.

Take a look and see what shakes with this "not always accurate rule". ;)

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If you want to see it all play out, find a chart like one of those that has a larger presence on a message board and read the posts that surround a spike, or even go to the siri intraday threads here, and read the posts on the big spikes... You'll see it in action.

Ray and I are the Makers Mark brothers. We both drink it and are damn proud of it! lol.

This summer time trading is slow, but it will work out. This last March was a lot of fun. While everybody was busy wringing their hands, we were having a ball.

Bad news is good news in this business a lot of the time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sean

wow... how do i post a screenshot...
i'm not even joking i just batted 100% on this game just by using my one new candle stick pattern i just learned

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Awesome - keep it up.

I friggin' love that game. Without it, I wouldn't have started trading options again.

Pretty scary if you are studying TA and playing the chartgame on a friday night.

GOOD JOB!!!! Muahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa$$$

i keep winning on this game, it must be set to give people confidence so they jump into the stock market (or its fake money so no pressure)

hmmm.. its like every long white candle generally means bullish.. kind of like what bill was saying when it goes big it only lasts a few days (thats how its been in this chart game for me too)

ooo i can't wait until i start looking for new stocks to buy now that i know a few of the signals. hopefully in a month or two

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sean

i keep winning on this game, it must be set to give people confidence so they jump into the stock market (or its fake money so no pressure)

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You are really doing your homework! Good man!

Learning charts is so important.

Now if you applied the big charts like you are reading to pennies, they are similar, but not the same.

Bigger stocks have the ability to be plotted, and you use a much deeper sma, instead of the ema. On big stocks you can go by the 300 day sma. On pennies, you have to be quick like a bunny and tighten everything in to a 9 ema, with a 36 day backup. In addition, the pump and dump mentality in pennies forces gaps up and down and even occasional runs.

If you look at pennies like a big stock, but at a much faster pace and are geared for it, then you have a great chance, but it is the day by day charts with pennies, you will have a pretty good indicator.

Penny stocks are mysterious to many people, because they are too micro. But always look at the year, the six month, the 3 month, the one month, the two week, the one week and the intraday to see where things are going.

If you are too close, you will only see a tree instead of the forest and a guy could miss the whole big beautiful picture.

That is true with any stock.

I tell you what, I did not realize it last night but, those CBO numbers I posted last night are huge!! If you missed them here it is again.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=328
Emperor berry has no clothes Bill!!!! :) This is good news, I hope I have called this one right.

Anyway, EGLE had a good week, RAMS fell below .70 briefly today, I would hold off until the lower .60's. Just my guess-ta-mets, do your DD as always!!

SRS held up strong today, did not get my roller coaster ride this time.

With the CBO coming out with the data, I am thinking of looking into the private health care stocks and those related companies. If anyone has any ideas on where to start, please post!!! :)
Pennies are preferred!!!

I know I am forgetting something, if I remember, I will post it later, have good weekend guys!!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sean

hmmm.. its like every long white candle generally means bullish.. kind of like what bill was saying when it goes big it only lasts a few days (thats how its been in this chart game for me too)

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To Dave and Sean:

That game is a true sensation. Shots brought it up and I have a ball with it. If you stop at each day, and look up the candle, it will just be a matter of time before it is second nature as to how the stock will perform the next day. There is certainly no hard and fast rule for success, but it puts odds on your side.

I typically spend about a minute or less looking at a chart, because I have learned them that well. But when I dig deeper, it can take 30 minutes to an hour to really form an opinion with detail.

Charts are fun and informative, because they include everything about the company. They include all of the relevant information about a company's earnings, new products, management and so on. It is all incorporated into the price of the stock.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dread

I tell you what, I did not realize it last night but, those CBO numbers I posted last night are huge!! If you missed them here it is again.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=328
Emperor berry has no clothes Bill!!!! :) This is good news, I hope I have called this one right.

Anyway, EGLE had a good week, RAMS fell below .70 briefly today, I would hold off until the lower .60's. Just my guess-ta-mets, do your DD as always!!

SRS held up strong today, did not get my roller coaster ride this time.

With the CBO coming out with the data, I am thinking of looking into the private health care stocks and those related companies. If anyone has any ideas on where to start, please post!!! :)
Pennies are preferred!!!

I know I am forgetting something, if I remember, I will post it later, have good weekend guys!!!!

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Good thinking, Jim.

Private health care stocks. I see them all of the time on T.V., but I would imagine that are a little splinter of a gigantic corporation.

I am going to stay out of politics in this thread, but the support certainly isn't there.

I will check you in the politics thread.

The private health care stocks is an interesting proposition.

You have your thinking cap on tonight!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by billhart22

Good thinking, Jim.

Private health care stocks. I see them all of the time on T.V., but I would imagine that are a little splinter of a gigantic corporation.

I am going to stay out of politics in this thread, but the support certainly isn't there.

I will check you in the politics thread.

The private health care stocks is an interesting proposition.

You have your thinking cap on tonight!

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Yeah, I know, keep the politics out of it but, its impossible to do right now, it affects us traders and you know.
I almost forgot, looks like they are trying to ram this health care through, so be careful and watch it closely.

There will be a trade to be made on whatever side we land on, so look at both sides, and line up your ducks to shoot!! Have a good one Bill!! Talk to ya later!!! :)