Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Just one problem with that while the deals that are with Toyota and such are better for SIRIXM. The penitration rate is much lower.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Just one problem with that while the deals that are with Toyota and such are better for SIRIXM. The penitration rate is much lower.
2 March 2009
J.D. Power and Associates, an influential industry tracking service, now expects U.S. light vehicle sales to drop to a 27-year low of 10.4 million vehicles this year, compared with its earlier forecast of 11.4 million units.
"We believe we are nearing the bottom of this cycle," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power. "Our expectation is for February or March to be the low point, but a high degree of uncertainty and risk remains for the second half of 2009."
Febs sales were 5% higher then Jans (656,976 )(The prediction for Jan was 550,000)
688,909 were sold in Feb the numbers will go up each month from there with April (after tax returns) and beyond being much higher.
"For the full year of 2008, all of the Big Six automakers reported sales declines. In total, the industry sold 13.2 million vehicles for an 18 percent drop from 2007's 16.1 million."
when is any1 ever right when they predict things? well imma predict something, sirius will grow subs even if auto sales drop to 9 million. Just ask maffei
mogami, I agree there comes a point in time when the supply will not cover the demand. Look you or anyone that wants to do the research, they could find out what the death rate is for people that die on the road or how many accidents there are. They could look into the rate at which most cars last and then come to a rate at which cars have to be made just to replace the cars that are gone. Then take the US. population growth rate and find out what percentage or ratio buy/need cars. By doing this you could come to a reasonable number of cars that need to be produced to keep up with the bare demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
58% of 10.4 million = 6,032,000 OEM Gross
1.6 Million (2008) X 75% = 1.2 million RETAIL Gross after 25% cut from 2008
7,232,000 TOTAL GROSS in 2009
19.5 million X 2.77% monthly churn = 6,481,000 TOTAL CHURN
7,232,000 Gross - 6,481,000 Churn = 751,000 NET ADDITIONS
Little closer to reality, IMHO. But could be higher on larger retail sales.
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Hey Joe,Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalJoe
Your Gross OEM numbers are off. You should be using the penetration rate for your Gross adds and then factoring in the ALL IN churn, which seems to be around 2.77%
So here's how I would figure it based on your conservative assumptions.
19,003,856 Subscriber Base
535,000 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,538,856 Total Subscriptions prior to churn
2.77% Monthly All In Churn % (Assumed)
541,119 Monthly Churn Subs cancelled
18,997,737 Total Subscriptions after churn
(2,263) Monthly Net Subs Added (Lost)
It still works out to a slight loss - but I think these numbers are pretty much a worst case scenario. Any increase in OEM sales or retail and we continue to grow.
The iPhone app driven subs could outpace OEM driven subs this year.......
Demian - Agreed - and I think the iphone app is going to be the ace up Mel's sleeve...Quote:
Originally Posted by Demian
As usual - following the emergence and disappearance of NiceMac's app - there is nothing but silence on the issue - but I really just can't believe they'd be stupid enough to turn away from a way to put SXM on every friggin iphone/handheld device out there....
Has anyone looked at the numbers if they DO start heading that way with their own app? I'm curious as to what the numbers look like....
well as long as we are pulling numbers out of our butts I say Subs end of 2009 will be 250,000 higher then end of 2008 if not more
(going to get the Sirius NASCAR team back together)
CC talking points :D
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2008 Pro Forma Revenue of $2.44 Billion, Up 18% Over 2007
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Total Subscribers of Approximately 19 Million, Up 10% Over 2007
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Company Achieves Positive Pro Forma Adjusted Income From Operations in Fourth Quarter 2008
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Liberty Media Investment Completed