SIRI Monthly Thread July 2015

Let's hope it's a strong tail wind.

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

You guys just don't get it at all. It is not just Harrigan. It is Jessica, Amobi and every other analyst on the street that lists internet streaming as risks to Sirius. THEY ARE ALL WRONG! That's why the stock will be reevaluated up over time (the next year or so). It's very rare when everybody on the street gets a theory wrong - One example I can think of is the AOL Time Warner merger in 2000. All the analysts got it completely wrong and the combination imploded.

In this case we will see a much higher price as subs accelerate in the face of this incorrect internet theory. You guys all can make up your conspiracy theories. The fact of the matter is that the business has been incorrectly evaluated on the street. Mel was the only one to say it on the calls- He called the internet music streamers "the race to the bottom". LOL He is said it was no different in competition to radio than all the packaged music that has made its way into the car over the last century. He got it right! The analysts have not. They will.

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And so you've hit on the real issue with sell side analysts. They all spout the conventional wisdom with very little difference between them. Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street Firms have claimed as a foregone conclusion that internet streaming is the future and it will kill SiriusXM. If Amobi or Jessica Cohen, or other analysts suspect that the conventional wisdom is wrong they are not going to risk their jobs and reputations by opposing that viewpoint. After all, those Wall Street firms provide their paychecks! Thoughout history, those that dare challenge the status quo put their livelihoods ( and sometimes even their lives) on the line...History teaches us not to rock the boat no matter how absurd the status quo might be.
Indulge me a case in point: In 1633 the Church (yesteryear's Wall Street) condemned Galileo when he had the gall to suggest that, maybe...perhaps, the Earth Revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around as the Church had insisted was the conventional wisdom of the day. Galileo was imprisoned and sentenced to death - unless he recanted his position. Luckily, he was more of a Pragmatist than an Astronomer so he quickly did so! Of course 8 years later, on his deathbed he published a paper that recanted his recantation! You want to know the crazy part? It wasn't until almost 360 years later in 1992 (that's right 1992!) that the Church finally, grudgingly admitted that Galileo was right!
It's a dangerous thing when dogma colors your better judgment and it's no different with investment decisions....I, for one, want to make sure that my current perspective doesn't become my own dogma which ends up clouding my judgment. SIRI had a GREAT quarter and certainly things are looking up. I look forward to busting through this $4 wall and moving on. But to dismiss ANY kind of competition, be it Pandora or AT&T or hell, even Blackberry with their QNX platform, and assume that SiriusXM has the drop on everyone with the "Connected Car" - however you define it, is a tantamount to potentially closing your eyes to a changing landscape that might see SirusXM 10 years from now as relevant as an 8 track tape deck is today.
When I hear someone of Meyer's position and stature say .....
"This stuff takes time, okay, which is one of the reasons why occasionally when I read about how fast everybody thinks every new entrants going to enter the vehicle, I kind of get a little skeptical because I've lived it for 12 years. This will take time."
....well I get nervous, real nervous. I'd feel a whole lot better if he were to acknowledge that things can change fast - so fast that I'll bet if he were to stop and take a look, he'd find that he still carries a Blockbuster (remember them?) membership card in his wallet. I know still I do :p
My (long winded) point being: don't dismiss some article or piece of information just because it doesn't jibe with your current viewpoint. Every piece of information is valuable and I thank all those that post links to such info.
Anyway sorry for the boring history stuff, but I just thought I'd share. thanks for coming :out:

Oh and BTW, if your definition of a "Connected Car" is streaming music, well we've had that since 1922. http://mentalfloss.com/article/29631...le-freaked-out

a little disappointed. Had expected a break through of the 4.00 and pull back. It just touched 4.00 today. However I was really surprised by the fact it went back to normal volume. SF thanks for your excellent posts!

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Originally Posted by user34615145

And so you've hit on the real issue with sell side analysts. They all spout the conventional wisdom with very little difference between them. Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street Firms have claimed as a foregone conclusion that internet streaming is the future and it will kill SiriusXM. If Amobi or Jessica Cohen, or other analysts suspect that the conventional wisdom is wrong they are not going to risk their jobs and reputations by opposing that viewpoint. After all, those Wall Street firms provide their paychecks! Thoughout history, those that dare challenge the status quo put their livelihoods ( and sometimes even their lives) on the line...History teaches us not to rock the boat no matter how absurd the status quo might be.
Indulge me a case in point: In 1633 the Church (yesteryear's Wall Street) condemned Galileo when he had the gall to suggest that, maybe...perhaps, the Earth Revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around as the Church had insisted was the conventional wisdom of the day. Galileo was imprisoned and sentenced to death - unless he recanted his position. Luckily, he was more of a Pragmatist than an Astronomer so he quickly did so! Of course 8 years later, on his deathbed he published a paper that recanted his recantation! You want to know the crazy part? It wasn't until almost 360 years later in 1992 (that's right 1992!) that the Church finally, grudgingly admitted that Galileo was right!
It's a dangerous thing when dogma colors your better judgment and it's no different with investment decisions....I, for one, want to make sure that my current perspective doesn't become my own dogma which ends up clouding my judgment. SIRI had a GREAT quarter and certainly things are looking up. I look forward to busting through this $4 wall and moving on. But to dismiss ANY kind of competition, be it Pandora or AT&T or hell, even Blackberry with their QNX platform, and assume that SiriusXM has the drop on everyone with the "Connected Car" - however you define it, is a tantamount to potentially closing your eyes to a changing landscape that might see SirusXM 10 years from now as relevant as an 8 track tape deck is today.
When I hear someone of Meyer's position and stature say .....
"This stuff takes time, okay, which is one of the reasons why occasionally when I read about how fast everybody thinks every new entrants going to enter the vehicle, I kind of get a little skeptical because I've lived it for 12 years. This will take time."
....well I get nervous, real nervous. I'd feel a whole lot better if he were to acknowledge that things can change fast - so fast that I'll bet if he were to stop and take a look, he'd find that he carries a Blockbuster (remember them?) membership card in his wallet.
My (long winded) point being: don't dismiss some article or piece of information just because it doesn't jibe with your viewpoint. Every piece of information is valuable and I thank all those that post links to such info.
Anyway sorry for the boring history stuff, but I just thought I'd share. thanks for coming :out:

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Pretty sure Meyer does not have a blockbuster card in his wallet, i would take that bet all day long if we could actually prove it lol. Hell i would give 20 to 1 odds on that!! :money:

Additionally I am sure based on Meyers years of experience he would not have said what he said if he truly did not believe it.

Couldn't you apply your same logic and theory to ATT, etc, etc ?? oh and thanks for comng ;)

+1

I could not agree more. It's frustrating for sure.

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Originally Posted by brian65PLS

a little disappointed. Had expected a break through of the 4.00 and pull back. It just touched 4.00 today. However I was really surprised by the fact it went back to normal volume. SF thanks for your excellent posts!

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+1

A breath of fresh air. I wish I could subscribe to your comments because you have a good handle on this subject. This is what I've been trying to say for awhile now.

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Originally Posted by user34615145

Oh and BTW, if your definition of a "Connected Car" is streaming music, well we've had that since 1922. http://mentalfloss.com/article/29631...le-freaked-out

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This is something everyone should think about and should know the answer too already. This is the very reason why Sirius XM purchased Agero. Now the hard work has begun...

This is probably one of two of the best posts on here next to Muscle's comments in the past!

High Mother F'ing Five! <SMACK>

Edit: Too bad Galileo couldn't just put the Church on "ignore"! HAHAHA

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Originally Posted by user34615145

And so you've hit on the real issue with sell side analysts. They all spout the conventional wisdom with very little difference between them. Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street Firms have claimed as a foregone conclusion that internet streaming is the future and it will kill SiriusXM. If Amobi or Jessica Cohen, or other analysts suspect that the conventional wisdom is wrong they are not going to risk their jobs and reputations by opposing that viewpoint. After all, those Wall Street firms provide their paychecks! Thoughout history, those that dare challenge the status quo put their livelihoods ( and sometimes even their lives) on the line...History teaches us not to rock the boat no matter how absurd the status quo might be.
Indulge me a case in point: In 1633 the Church (yesteryear's Wall Street) condemned Galileo when he had the gall to suggest that, maybe...perhaps, the Earth Revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around as the Church had insisted was the conventional wisdom of the day. Galileo was imprisoned and sentenced to death - unless he recanted his position. Luckily, he was more of a Pragmatist than an Astronomer so he quickly did so! Of course 8 years later, on his deathbed he published a paper that recanted his recantation! You want to know the crazy part? It wasn't until almost 360 years later in 1992 (that's right 1992!) that the Church finally, grudgingly admitted that Galileo was right!
It's a dangerous thing when dogma colors your better judgment and it's no different with investment decisions....I, for one, want to make sure that my current perspective doesn't become my own dogma which ends up clouding my judgment. SIRI had a GREAT quarter and certainly things are looking up. I look forward to busting through this $4 wall and moving on. But to dismiss ANY kind of competition, be it Pandora or AT&T or hell, even Blackberry with their QNX platform, and assume that SiriusXM has the drop on everyone with the "Connected Car" - however you define it, is a tantamount to potentially closing your eyes to a changing landscape that might see SirusXM 10 years from now as relevant as an 8 track tape deck is today.
When I hear someone of Meyer's position and stature say .....
"This stuff takes time, okay, which is one of the reasons why occasionally when I read about how fast everybody thinks every new entrants going to enter the vehicle, I kind of get a little skeptical because I've lived it for 12 years. This will take time."
....well I get nervous, real nervous. I'd feel a whole lot better if he were to acknowledge that things can change fast - so fast that I'll bet if he were to stop and take a look, he'd find that he still carries a Blockbuster (remember them?) membership card in his wallet. I know still I do :p
My (long winded) point being: don't dismiss some article or piece of information just because it doesn't jibe with your viewpoint. Every piece of information is valuable and I thank all those that post links to such info.
Anyway sorry for the boring history stuff, but I just thought I'd share. thanks for coming :out:

Oh and BTW, if your definition of a "Connected Car" is streaming music, well we've had that since 1922. http://mentalfloss.com/article/29631...le-freaked-out

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One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

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That's what they said to Galileo. Be careful you don't trip over your dogma when you take if for a walk (now THAT's one of the dumbest things ever posted - sorry bout that :out:)

+1 Muscle! :)

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

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Originally Posted by user34615145

That's what they said to Galileo. Be careful you don't trip over your dogma when you take if for a walk (now THAT's one of the dumbest things ever posted - sorry bout that :out:)

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It is disappointing to see SIRI closed down on the day after a nice showing. Ugh...

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Originally Posted by brian65PLS

a little disappointed. Had expected a break through of the 4.00 and pull back. It just touched 4.00 today. However I was really surprised by the fact it went back to normal volume.

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

+1 Muscle?? +1MUSCLE???? You complimented User's post to the sky, I trashed it as rubbish, and you say +1 MUSCLE???

Good Lord...............

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Muscle you are confused.....I replied via a multi quote which shows your response and users reply. I was giving you a +1 because your response was spot on. It does take time....many years in fact!! Its obvious those clowns did not listen to the conference call.

To be clear...Users post is trash...100%!!!!!

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Originally Posted by dm_4

Muscle you are confused.....I replied via a multi quote which shows your response and users reply. I was giving you a +1 because your response was spot on. It does take time....many years in fact!! Its obvious those clowns did not listen to the conference call.

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Yes I realized after the post it wasn't Midas. I deleted it. Sorry about that.

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

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Muscle I think you and are on the same page a lot more than you might think. First of all I agree with Mel that it's all about content.
But allow me another analogy...UBER. Five years ago Uber didn't exist and if you wanted to own a cab in NYC you had to pay hundreds of thousands - maybe millions o f dollars for a medallion license. That was their moat. and the riders were their content. If you would have suggested to the CEO of the top cab company that some little upstart might cut their marketshare in half, he would probably responded much like Meyer did "you think what we've built can just be copied by some other competitor - Not likely and certainly not without a lot of time and money"
Then along comes Uber and Lyft and they simply bypass the moat and change the way the content is delivered.....I have no clue what SiriusXM's Uber might be...I'm not that smart. I'm just saying that for Meyer to claim he's got the jump on any competitor because it took them years/decades to get where they are...well that's just hubris speaking.
On a side note: you seem very uptight today - in fact for the last few days. Lots of folks here just want to chat...which means it's a two way conversation, not "I'm right and you're stupid"....

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Originally Posted by user34615145

Muscle I think you and are on the same page a lot more than you might think. First of all I agree with Mel that it's all about content.
But allow me another analogy...UBER. Five years ago Uber didn't exist and if you wanted to own a cab in NYC you had to pay hundreds of thousands - maybe millions o f dollars for a medallion license. That was their moat. and the riders were their content. If you would have suggested to the CEO of the top cab company that some little upstart might cut their marketshare in half, he would probably responded much like Meyer did "you think what we've built can just be copied by some other competitor - Not likely and certainly not without a lot of time and money"
Then along comes Uber and Lyft and they change the way the content is delivered.....I have no clue what SiriusXM's Uber might be...I'm not that smart. I'm just saying that for Meyer to claim he's got the jump on any competitor because it took them years/decades to get where they are...well that's just hubris speaking.
On a side note: you seem very uptight today - in fact for the last few days. Lots of folks here just want to chat...which mean it's a two way conversation, not "I'm right and you're stupid"....

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You are comparing cab riders to media content. Nice......What world am I living in? I need to get to my other media stocks

Personally, this one marks "game on". It's the first such analysis I've seen. Any thoughts Muscle?

.http://seekingalpha.com/article/3371...7ae8d14e6f654e

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Originally Posted by bcoz

Personally, this one marks "game on". It's the first such analysis I've seen. Any thoughts Muscle?

.http://seekingalpha.com/article/3371...7ae8d14e6f654e

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Liberty only makes an offer for Sirius if the discount to the NAV is low, like it was last year. They won't do a dilutive acquisition. I like it when the discount is high like it is now because it keeps Sirius independent or a candidate for a RMT.

I do believe the Sirius buyback takes care of this all eventually and I think Liberty eventually combines Sirius, Live Nation and possibly a record label together in Liberty Media one day. I believe that's their end game. But I want Sirius to stay a pure play independent. Nobody in media grows cash flow like Sirius - alone. But it sure ain't up to me or you. Our job as investors is to invest in the cash flow growth.

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

Hate to say it but it really has no connection. Midas seemed to like it though so there's a fan, I guess.

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Sheesh! Tough crowd! I thought i made a perfect connnection, but then your comment would probably gets a "+1" from my kids too. I guess. They'd be rolling their eyes and going "there goes dad off on one of his stories again."
Sorry, i'll try to keep it relevant next time. 👌

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

The important thing to take away from this is exactly what I posted some time ago (month or two.. I think I posted it on SA but may have been here) and then again today or yesterday or both... can't remember... here saying to watch LMCA / K. There is / was greater upside to LMCA / K than SIRI.

That needs to catch up so eyes should be THERE looking for the break. LMCA / K have been depressed vs. SIRI for a good amount of time now.

Consider LMCA / K activity yesterday and today and you should be able to see what is going on or get a general idea of it. SIRI grinds here, LMCA / K pull up, and SIRI can then move.

Could only need to exceed the 50 day MA... there really isn't overhead resistance beyond that. The 100 is inconsequential in my opinion. LMCA / K today ended on the 50.

Watch the volume.

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I remember you giving that insight. Thank you.
I don't use options-- I'm the "happy hoarder"-- but the recent SF commentary on options was also a must read.

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

It *is* investable when things are to be spun out and that discount is unlocked in the spin, such as was seen with Starz.

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I got a great way to close the NAV discount fast. Spin out Sirius in a RMT and then make Mel CEO again. I know I am dreaming, but Meyer's contract is up in October and Sirius has underperformed the S&P 500 since Mel left 2 and a half years ago.......

Dreams Dreams Dreams

Reminiscing about the 90s. I loved this merger. It locked in a 1000% 4 year return for me. My first 10 bagger as Peter Lynch used to call them

Radio Ink -

Do You Remember Mel?

Nearly 20 years ago it was announced that GroupW/CBS Radio would be merging with Infinity Broadcasting. That would give Mel Karmazin control of 83 stations, a roster of stars including Howard Stern and Don Imus, Infinity Radio Sales, Westwood One Radio Networks and Shadow Broadcast Services. Enough power to put him on top of our power list in year one. He would remain in the top three for 8 consecutive years before leaving radio. Clear Channel CEO Lowry Mays was a close second, followed by Jacor CEO Randy Michaels. At the time Clear Channel had 104 stations and Jacor owned 53. Of course, eventually those two would merge. Here's a look back at the entire 1996 list of the 40 Most Powerful People in Radio.


http://www.radioink.com/Article.asp?...964&spid=24698