The water must be really "hard" in Omaha Nebraska (lotta sulphur or something) . . . Becky Quick looked like a mess this morning
Hard to believe that senile old fool Buffet is tappin "that"
I hope his $5,000,000,000 goes south with Goldman
Printable View
The water must be really "hard" in Omaha Nebraska (lotta sulphur or something) . . . Becky Quick looked like a mess this morning
Hard to believe that senile old fool Buffet is tappin "that"
I hope his $5,000,000,000 goes south with Goldman
Interesting take by the analysts. Looks like I am slightly more bullish on revenue than they are. It will be an interesting conference call tomorrow.
I am getting a weird feeling this time that there wont be a pull back or at least it will not be like most times and that it may go up and stay there for a time after. I just did not see the increase in PPS like we normally do this time. Something seems different this time, so on that note I guess anything gos. Then again there is really nothing going on after the CC so maybe some will pull money out looking to put it somewhere else. If that is the case I can wait another month till May OEM sales come out I think at least then I wont miss the slow grind up in PPS.
Several analysts provided upbeat pre-earnings comments today:
Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan repeated his Hold rating, but lifted his target price to $1.25, from $1. He adds that a sustained recovery in U.S. auto sales to the 12 million unit annual rate would push his valuation estimate up to $1.50. He expects Q1 sales of $672.9 million with EBITDA of $138.2 million and “essentially break-even” EPS. He estimates ARPU at $11.06, and subscriber acquisition costs of $64.36.
Barrington Research analyst James Goss this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the shares; he also see a break-even quarter, with revenue of $682.2 million Goss writes that one potential catalyst for the stock could be inclusion in in stock indexes that had removed the shares as the stock price tumbled. Goss keeps his $1.25 target.
Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett repeated his Buy rating and $1.35 target. He sees revenue of $666 million, adjusted EBIRDA of $137 million and a profit of a penny a share. Crockett thinks the company will raise its full-year 2010 EBITDA guidance from the current $550 million to $600 million or higher.
Satellite Standard Group analyst Spencer Osborne, in his usual wait-and-see style, does not offer a price target but sees revenue of $704-$712 million, adjusted income from operations of $120-$135 million and EPS of breakeven to a 1 penny profit. Osborne, perhaps the only analyst who actually understands the fundamental metrics of the company, estimates ARPU of $11 and subscriber acquisition costs of $70.
I spoke earlier with with an exhausted Osborne, who will be anchoring live coverage of the conference call tomorrow morning beginning at 7:00 A.M. eastern on Sirius Buzz Radio, who said, "overall the call will carry a positive tone, and should be well received, in particular if they are able to report a positive EPS. The focus will be on guidance, growth, and better economic conditions."
Spence . . the one thing I haven't heard you address is "one-time-charges"
I suppose we agree that there will be some "one-time-charges" related to the debt refinancing that took place during Q1 . . . the question is whether or not those charges will have an appreciable impact on EPS . . .
I am looking for a contrarian angle here and wondersing if MSM & thestreet.CON will look to sandbag the call (the latter of course to seed a short position for Jimmy's buddies) with misleading headlines that play off any potential one-time-charges
Could Sirius Do A Better Sales Job?
When Sirius XM (NSDQ: SIRI) announces its earnings before the market opens Tuesday, analysts will be looking for financial results; the subscriber numbers were pre-released weeks ago with improvements in every key area, including converting trial subs to paying. But could that 45.2 percent conversion rate be even better if the satellite radio company improved its sales style? And could it be worth more?
As mentioned here before, my household has been on a six-month new car trial and has to decide soon whether or not to re-up. The first effort (and so far the only one) from Sirius to get us to do just that arrived a few days ago: a plain, white letter with a format mixed between bill and offer, along with a card listing the 130 radio channels in the basic package. Twelve months for the price of 10 ($129.50) or 24 months for the price of 19 ($245); monthly ($12.95) or quarterly ($38.85). So far, so good.
The primary goal seems to be renewing the current deal, and given that what Sirius needs first and foremost is that conversion, it’s not a bad one. But it’s also missing chances to entice our renewal with a service upgrade and to add us as users outside the car. No mention of the “Best of XM” package unless you get to the bottom of the channel listing. (The Sirius Everything+Best of XM package, available only on some radios, runs $16.99.) No effort to upsell to an online subscription, say something like sign up now and get online, usually $2.99 a month, for $1 month or the like. No mention of the iPhone app. You have to know about those last two by osmosis, look for packages online or call. Log in to handle it online, nothing changes. No incentive to upgrade.
There’s also no effort to let potential subs know there are cheaper options, including a family pack ($11.95) and a la carte.
The fine print: The letter said to respond by May 9 to get the renewal offer; the fine print said it was good through May 24. The really fine print says month-to-month can only be done over the phone, not through the form. That’s also the only place a prospective subscriber hears anything about the music royalty fee, with no mention that it adds $1.98 a month to the standard $12.95—which means the price you’re seeing isn’t the price you’ll be paying. (‘Free’ months don’t incur a royalty.) There’s also a threat of a $2 fee every time you get a paper invoice.
Sirius has made tremendous improvements in the last year, aided by some financial stability courtesy of a key investment by Liberty Media (NSDQ: LINTA). It even stayed above $1.00 enough days in a row last month to avoid being delisted by Nasdaq. I’m not sure why its direct marketing is stuck in the last decade.
http://paidcontent.org/article/419-c...ter-sales-job/
Sirius XM's Penny Stock Days Are Over, Poll Says
By Andrea Tse 05/03/10 - 11:49 AM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After closing above a dollar for 10 straight days, Sirius XM(SIRI) stock has regained compliance with NASDAQ listing requirements -- so, we asked TheStreet users: "Now what?"
And the verdict was clear: While Sirius XM stock has gotten its share of flack the past year for trading in "penny stock" territory, many investors apparently believe that those days are long gone. Sirius stock, according to 75.4% -- or 1,207 -- of those we polled, will continue to show more upside potential and begin drawing in institutional investors.
Meanwhile, 22.4% of the investors we polled believe that Sirius stock will continue to show more upside potential, but remain a high-risk play. A mere 2.2% of respondents said they believe that, as the result of another round of auto-sector weakness, Sirius XM shares will suffer.
The price targets for Sirius XM are varied, hitting figures such as $1.30 and $1.50 -- subject to revision after Sirius XM makes its first quarter announcement on May 4; Sirius XM stock settled at $1.18 Friday, down 1.9%. Its shares are trading up 1.9% at $1.20 Monday morning.
BGB Securities analyst Murray Arenson expects solid first-quarter operational data for Sirius XM. "We believe the company outlook continues to be strong, with solid auto sales data, an improving balance sheet, and elimination of the NASDAQ listing/reverse-split question," Arenson wrote in an investor note.
The stock recently broke through Arenson's $1.15 price target, which is subject to review pending Tuesday's earnings call.
A good example of today's Sirius XM investor can be found in Burleson, Texas, in the form of retail investor Ron Reed. Reed, whose initial Sirius XM investment has nearly tripled, told Reuters that he's in the stock for "the long haul."
Reed purchased the stock about a year ago at 42 cents a share, and had at some point considered selling off the shares when it made only 60 cents by the end of 2009, rather than the ballpark $2 he'd been hoping for, he told Reuters. But with the company's strengthening fundamentals gaining more notice each day, Reed says his doubts about Sirius XM seem to have largely faded away.
On Apr. 28, Sirius XM announced that the company is retiring $114 million of debt. It said that on June 1, the company will redeem all of its outstanding 10% senior PIK secured notes due 2011 at a redemption price of 100% plus accrued interest.
"Our strong cash position, strong first-quarter subscriber growth and the improving outlook for the economy have put us in position to retire these notes a year ahead of schedule," SIRIUS XM CFO David Frear said. "The early retirement of these notes will reduce interest expense and increase our free cash flow."
Whether you still think that Sirius XM stock "would be a great short, except it's not worth anything!," as one recent reader of TheStreet commented on TheStreet; or you believe that "Siri will be at $2.50 by year-end," as another predicted, Sirius XM investors who are tired of hearing their stock being put down are undoubtedly feeling some sense of vindication by now.
-- Reported by Andrea Tse in New York
makes me think Jimmy's buddies at GS are getting ready to go short on fomenting EPS 1 time charge fabricated headlines . . .
Sirius XM Preview: Recovery Intact
By Robert Holmes 05/03/10 - 03:13 PM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Sirius XM(SIRI) appears to be a drastically different company when compared to where it was a year ago, a sentiment that will likely be echoed after the satellite provider posts first-quarter results Tuesday.
Last year, Sirius XM posted a first-quarter loss following a sharp drop in net subscribers. The release came several weeks after Liberty Media saved the company with a $530 million capital infusion. On the day of the earnings release, Sirius XM's stock fell to 43 cents.
Fast-forward to now: Sirius XM hit a new 52-week high of $1.25 Monday ahead of Tuesday's report. Fears of a Nasdaq delisting have vanished, and investors already have a pretty good idea of how the company's first-quarter report will shape up.
In an earnings pre-release last month, Sirius XM said it added 171,441 net subscribers in the first quarter of 2010, compared to a year-ago net subscriber decline of 404,422. Churn, which measures how well Sirius XM is retaining customers, fell to 2% from 2.2% in the same quarter of 2009.
Perhaps the most crucial improvement for Sirius XM has been in the conversion rate metric, which measures how many free-trial subscribers convert to paying customers. For a company that has pinned its success to auto in-dash installations, the conversion rate has become its primary measure of success. The rate rose to 45.2% in the first quarter of 2010 from 44.6% a year ago.
"In our opinion, one of the more important trends is the increasing conversion rate," Barrington Research analysts James Goss and John Hain wrote in an earnings preview Monday. "We feel the improving conversion rate is demonstrative of consumers' continued demand for the company's programming and services."
What isn't known is how Sirius XM performed on the top and bottom lines. One year ago, Sirius XM said the first-quarter net loss attributable to shareholders was $236.6 million, or 7 cents a share, and revenue totaled $586.99 million.
Those numbers have already improved for Sirius XM. In the fourth quarter of 2009, Sirius XM said it had revenue of $676.17 million and net income of $14.16 million, or breakeven on a per-share basis.
No analyst covering Sirius XM is expecting a profit in the first quarter on a per-share basis, but that's mostly due to the large number of shares outstanding. Sirius XM currently has 3.88 billion shares outstanding, or more than 6 billion on a fully-diluted basis to account for Liberty Media's preferred share stake.
"If you take a small net income figure and you divide it a few billion times, it'll round to break even," Barrington's Hain said in a phone interview Monday.
Barrington is forecasting net income of about $15.2 million, Hain said, while revenue should increase to $682.2 million. That's above the Thomson Reuters consensus of analysts of $671.3 million and Sirius XM's fourth-quarter revenue total of $676.2 million.
Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan is forecasting revenue of $672.9 million, also above the Wall Street average. He also expects Sirius XM to break even for the quarter, acknowledging that the company's large base of retail shareholders would prefer to see something on the bottom line.
"Optically, it's always nice to make money," Harrigan added. "But given the very large number of shares, that's just the way the math works."
However, a bigger focus for analysts will be U.S. vehicle sales, a timely concern as automakers will offer April sales figures Monday. Edmunds.com analysts predicted that April's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) would fall to 11.2 million from 11.8 in March.
Now that auto sales are the primary driver for new subscriber growth, Barrington Research's analysts say they have maintained a watchful eye on consumer activity in that sector. Wunderlich's Harrigan shares a similar long-term focus.
"What matters is the sustainable run rate as opposed to how it bobs around on a monthly basis," Harrigan said. "Sirius is clearly viable. The only issue is how much the equity is worth. The long run issue will be the run rate of U.S. auto sales, which should logically be higher than where it is now if the economy recovers."
Aside from the conversion rate, Sirius XM hasn't offered other key metrics to measure its performance with automobile installations, such as the average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) and the costs of acquiring each subscriber (SAC).
Wunderlich's Harrigan said he expects ARPU to increase to $11.06, up from $10.43 in the year-ago quarter and $10.92 in the fourth quarter. SAC should climb to $64.36 from $64 in the sequential quarter and $61 from the year-ago quarter, Harrigan said, which comes mostly due to the increased number of U.S. auto sales.
Investors will also be watching to see how well Sirius XM has been managing its cash flow. In the first quarter of 2009, Sirius XM had negative free cash flow of $3.6 million. In the fourth quarter, though, free cash flow turned positive at $150 million.
In the guidance that Sirius XM provided in February, the company expects free cash flow to remain positive in 2010 and revenue of over $2.7 billion this year. To account for the improvements, Sirius XM Mel Karmazin trumpeted positive signs in ARPU, SAC, subscriber numbers and free cash flow.
"These gains position us to deliver on our 2010 guidance," Karmazin said in the earnings release.
Tomorrow, Karmazin and Sirius XM will take its first step toward achieving that goal.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston.
Motley Fool slipping under the covers with BM?
talk about strange bed-fellows
Well I am not Tyler or Spence (whoever that is) but I will take a stab at it. I dont think we see to much of a loss this time remembering that the last time it was something like .07 cent loss for one time charges. I believe it well be closer to a penny or at most 2 for one time charges..
I think even stranger bed fellows are Newman and Charles. Excuse me now while I throw up XVXV&UV EFE EETE*^WRF*WEPTFSFSSJ EBVEV BHFDDFETF. Ok all this talk of guys being in bed together was making me sick (not that there is anything wrong with that (Sienfield show #231)).
. . . to God's ears:
"Eventually there will be many more used cars with factory or dealer installed radios on the road than new cars so the universe of potential subscribers who can easily sample our service will continue to grow and we are devoting a great deal of energy to create and refine processes to take advantage of this future fact. We have recently announced the management team to focus on capitalizing from the very large, certified pre-owned and used car market."
at 3 minutes, 25 seconds to be precise:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOjzu...next=1&index=3
http://m.paidcontent.org/article/419...sts-estimates/
Typical. Down 7 cents in premarket. It's like SIRI can't win lol.
- Pro Forma Revenue of $670.6 Million, Up 11% Year Over Year - Record Pro Forma Adjusted Income From Operations, up 45% Year Over Year to $157.8 Million - Net Income Per Common Share of $0.01 Versus ($0.07) a Year Ago
NEW YORK, May 4, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX News Network/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced first quarter 2010 financial and operating results, including $670.6 million in pro forma revenue, up 11% over first quarter 2009 pro forma revenue of $605.5 million; and $157.8 million in first quarter 2010 pro forma adjusted income from operations, an increase of 45% over first quarter 2009 pro forma adjusted income from operations of $108.8 million.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/...19/NYTU044LOGO )
"Continued positive subscriber growth, double-digit growth in revenue, and a sharp focus on costs resulted in the highest quarterly adjusted operating income in the company's history," said Mel Karmazin, Chief Executive Officer, SIRIUS XM Radio. "As the leader in audio entertainment, these results show the tremendous appeal of our service and the strength of our business model. The continuing recovery of the automotive sector and expanding signs of increased consumer spending are encouraging signs for the company's growth prospects."
SIRIUS XM ended first quarter 2010 with 18,944,199 subscribers, up 344,765 from 18,599,434 subscribers at the end of first quarter 2009. Net subscriber additions of 171,441 in the first quarter of 2010 improved significantly from a loss of 404,422 subscribers in the first quarter of 2009. In the first quarter 2010, pro forma average revenue per subscriber (ARPU), which includes the U.S. Music Royalty Fee, was $11.48, an increase of 10% from pro forma ARPU of $10.48 in the first quarter 2009. The company's self-pay monthly customer churn rate was 2.0% in the first quarter 2010, as compared with self-pay monthly customer churn of 2.2% in the first quarter 2009.
Free cash flow in the first quarter 2010 was ($127.2) million compared to ($3.6) million in the first quarter of 2009. Net Income plus non cash operating activities increased by $43.7 million, or 89%, to $93 million in the first quarter of 2010 from $49.3 million in the first quarter of 2009. This increase was offset by changes in operating assets and liabilities as a result of the early repayment of approximately $61 million deferred in 2009 that was scheduled to be repaid, at 15% interest, in monthly installments from April 2010 through March 2011, a lump sum programming payment in the first quarter of 2010 that was paid over the course of the year in 2009 and the payment of 2009 bonuses in cash as opposed to stock in the prior year resulting in an increase in net cash used in operating activities of $104.6 million. In addition, capital expenditures in the first quarter of 2010 increased by $28 million over the prior quarter period primarily due to increased satellite spending.
The company previously announced it will redeem all of the remaining $114 million of XM's outstanding 10% Senior PIK Secured Notes due 2011 on Tuesday, June 1, 2010. "Our strong cash position, strong year-to-date subscriber growth and the improving outlook for the economy have put us in position to retire $175 million of high cost obligations a year ahead of schedule," said David Frear, SIRIUS XM's Chief Financial Officer. "The early retirement of the PIK Notes and the deferred payments will reduce interest expense and increase our free cash flow."
On a GAAP basis, first quarter 2010 revenue was $663.8 million, and first quarter 2010 net income was $41.6 million, or $0.01 per share.
2010 OUTLOOK
SIRIUS XM continues to project net subscriber additions of over 500,000 for the full year. The company continues to expect to record over $2.7 billion of pro forma revenue in 2010 and to achieve pro forma adjusted income from operations of approximately $550 million. Free cash flow is expected to remain positive for the full year.
PRO FORMA RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The discussion of operating results below is based upon pro forma comparisons as if the merger of SIRIUS and XM occurred on January 1, 2007 and excludes the effects of stock-based compensation and purchase accounting adjustments.
FIRST QUARTER 2010 VERSUS FIRST QUARTER 2009
For the first quarter of 2010, SIRIUS XM recognized total revenue of $670.6 million compared to $605.5 million for the first quarter 2009. This 11%, or $65.1 million, increase in revenue was driven by the U.S. Music Royalty Fee introduced in the third quarter of 2009, the sale of "Best of" programming, and rate increases to the company's multi-subscription and Internet packages.
Total ARPU for the three months ended March 31, 2010 was $11.48, compared to $10.48 for the three months ended March 31, 2009. The increase was driven mainly by the addition of the U.S. Music Royalty Fee introduced in July 2009 and increased revenues from the "Best of" programming, multi-subscription rate increases, Internet streaming, and advertising.
In the first quarter of 2010, the company grew pro forma adjusted income from operations to $157.8 million compared to pro forma adjusted income from operations of $108.8 million for the first quarter of 2009 (refer to the reconciliation table of net income (loss) to adjusted income from operations). The improvement was driven by an 11% increase in total revenue, or $65.1 million, partially offset by an increase of 3%, or $16.2 million, in total expenses included in adjusted income from operations.
Revenue share and royalties increased 2%, or $2.3 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 primarily due to an increase in the company's revenues and an increase in the statutory royalty rate for the performance of sound recordings. The amounts were partially offset by a decrease in a royalty rate with an automaker.
Programming and content costs decreased 6%, or $6.2 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 due mainly to savings on certain content agreements and production costs, partially offset by increases in personnel costs and general operating expenses.
Customer service and billing costs decreased 7%, or $4.1 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 primarily due to lower call center expenses as a result of savings realized from relocating certain operations.
Satellite and transmission costs decreased 2%, or $0.4 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 due to reductions in personnel costs and repeater maintenance costs, partially offset by increased satellite insurance expense.
Cost of equipment decreased 1%, or $0.1 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 as a result of lower inventory write-downs, partially offset by increased component sales to manufacturers and distributors.
Subscriber acquisition costs increased 28%, or $23.3 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009. The increase was driven by the 29% increase in gross additions and higher OEM installations, partially offset by lower per unit OEM subsidies, improved chip set costs and lower aftermarket acquisition costs.
Sales and marketing costs decreased 1%, or $0.7 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 due to lower cooperative marketing, event marketing and third party distribution support expenses, partially offset by increased personnel costs and consumer advertising.
Engineering, design and development costs increased 17%, or $1.4 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 mainly due to higher personnel costs.
General and administrative costs increased 1%, or $0.5 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 mainly due to higher personnel costs, partially offset by lower legal, consulting and accounting expenses.
Other expenses decreased 17%, or $16.9 million, in the three months ended March 31, 2010 compared to the three months ended March 31, 2009 driven mainly by a decrease in loss on extinguishment of debt and credit facilities, net, of $15.4 million.
The following tables contain unaudited actual and pro forma subscriber and key operating metrics for the three months ended March 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively.
Unaudited Actual
----------------
For the Three Months
Ended
March 31,
---------
2010 2009
---- ----
Beginning subscribers 18,772,758 19,003,856
Gross subscriber additions 1,720,848 1,338,961
Deactivated subscribers (1,549,407) (1,743,383)
Net additions 171,441 (404,422)
------- --------
Ending subscribers 18,944,199 18,599,434
========== ==========
Retail 7,420,203 8,537,171
OEM 11,391,439 9,958,234
Rental 132,557 104,029
------- -------
Ending subscribers 18,944,199 18,599,434
========== ==========
Retail (305,547) (368,031)
OEM 460,487 (37,604)
Rental 16,501 1,213
------ -----
Net additions 171,441 (404,422)
======= ========
Self-pay 15,773,671 15,436,410
Paid promotional 3,170,528 3,163,024
Ending subscribers 18,944,199 18,599,434
========== ==========
Self-pay 69,739 (113,247)
Paid promotional 101,702 (291,175)
Net additions 171,441 (404,422)
======= ========
Daily weighted average number
of subscribers 18,783,263 18,713,485
========== ==========
Unaudited Pro Forma
-------------------
For the Three Months
Ended
March 31,
---------
(in thousands, except for per
subscriber amounts) 2010 2009
---- ----
Average self-pay monthly churn
(1)(7) 2.0% 2.2%
Conversion rate (2)(7) 45.2% 44.6%
ARPU (3)(7) $11.48 $10.48
SAC, as adjusted, per gross
subscriber addition (4)(7) $59 $61
Customer service and billing
expenses, as adjusted,
per average subscriber (5)(7) $0.99 $1.06
Total revenue $670,563 $605,480
Free cash flow (6)(7) $(127,203) $(3,646)
Adjusted income from operations
(8) $157,757 $108,841
Net income (loss) $4,454 $(65,114)
SIRIUS XM RADIO INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
Unaudited Pro Forma
-------------------
For the Three Months
Ended
March 31,
2010 2009
---- ----
Revenue:
Subscriber revenue, including
effects of rebates $584,475 $576,078
Advertising revenue, net of
agency fees 14,527 12,304
Equipment revenue 14,283 9,909
Other revenue 57,278 7,189
------ -----
Total revenue 670,563 605,480
Operating expenses:
Revenue share and royalties 123,539 121,261
Programming and content 90,471 96,678
Customer service and billing 55,577 59,669
Satellite and transmission 19,389 19,741
Cost of equipment 7,919 7,993
Subscriber acquisition costs 107,045 83,710
Sales and marketing 49,942 50,601
Engineering, design and
development 9,826 8,411
General and administrative 49,098 48,575
Depreciation and amortization 51,578 51,483
Restructuring, impairments and
related costs - 614
Share-based payment expense 18,183 21,500
Total operating expenses 582,567 570,236
------- -------
Income from operations 87,996 35,244
Other expense (82,375) (99,243)
------- -------
Income (loss) before income taxes 5,621 (63,999)
Income tax expense (1,167) (1,115)
Net income (loss) $4,454 $(65,114)
====== ========
Yes but that is normal just look at most companies that reported great results after they did the stocks fell only to come back the next few days later. I think the disappointment came in the area of revenue and negitive FCF (for those that dont understand how FCF works that is). I can understand the revenue part but people have to remember FCF is also not a great number to use with this company at this time (although it is still better then EBITDA). Look at what happen they paid their people in cash instead of shares, that killed FCF along with some other good things that happen, paying off debt is not bad nomatter where it comes from. So in the end I would hope most see this and are looking at revenue because that is the only downer here.