SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for April 5, 2010

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SSG

By - Spencer Osborne

This deserves an article, but I know I will get slammed if I write it. Today Stern discussed the Sirius XM customer service stance that, "Stern will be back, he has nowhere else to go."

Now some of this is hyped by Stern, that is for sure.....however, there is an issue with customer service telling consumers that Stern will be back. The fact is that they don't know yet, and to tell consumers misinformation is simply wrong.

Not only is it wrong, but it gives Stern MORE ammunition in his negotiations with Sirius XM.

The fact of the matter is that the Stern issue needs to be solved prior to the Q4 retail selling season. The company will have a "moral" dilemma of a Q3 and Q4 advertising campaign that touts Stern when he may not yet be signed. Thus, they will likely have to do a campaign without Stern, which in and of itself will raise even more questions and concerns.

It is for this reason that the company needs to resolve this in the next 3 to 4 months, or risk having to advertise without the ability to tout Stern.

If Stern is not signing, the company can focus and promote alternative content.

The bottom line is that customer service needs to be put under more control, and Sirius XM needs to get to a decision on the Stern issue. Time is ticking

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ok Spence, here goes . . . yes, Stern is in fact a relevant discussion point . . . but not today, not on a day when the trading volume is 600,000,000 shares!

I do realize Sirius Buzz serves an audience that is wider than equity investors, and I have seen Charles note on more than one occassion that the greatest amount of site activity relates to service issues, but on a day like today, with record volume on the heels of an HSR filing, Howard Stern's issues with Customer Service can wait . . .

Date Open High Low Close Volume
4/7/2010 0.878 0.9597 0.8745 0.9534 609,419,127
4/6/2010 0.855 0.88 0.855 0.8698 146,426,500
4/5/2010 0.855 0.88 0.85 0.8649 237,172,900
4/1/2010 0.8791 0.9 0.84 0.8401 225,654,600
3/31/2010 0.84 0.873 0.82 0.8705 213,234,000
3/30/2010 0.84 0.86 0.8192 0.8393 181,570,200
3/29/2010 0.8671 0.8696 0.835 0.8421 141,988,500
3/26/2010 0.8805 0.8918 0.851 0.8601 168,981,300
3/25/2010 0.89 0.92 0.87 0.8733 219,150,500
3/24/2010 0.89 0.9 0.8601 0.8811 162,564,000
3/23/2010 0.8824 0.89 0.85 0.8666 122,882,700
3/22/2010 0.82 0.9 0.7899 0.8602 237,234,300
3/19/2010 0.8703 0.8704 0.82 0.8273 180,279,400
3/18/2010 0.88 0.8999 0.86 0.8622 122,894,600
3/17/2010 0.91 0.911 0.88 0.8944 129,592,600
3/16/2010 0.92 0.9298 0.9 0.905 94,051,150
3/15/2010 0.9207 0.95 0.89 0.9169 149,515,100
3/12/2010 0.91 0.931 0.8902 0.91 107,024,100
3/11/2010 0.937 0.94 0.9 0.9101 74,275,440
3/10/2010 0.9195 0.9409 0.9101 0.9307 99,386,150
3/9/2010 0.9 0.9108 0.8684 0.9108 167,901,800
3/8/2010 0.95 0.97 0.9 0.9 139,918,000

50 Day Avg. Daily Volume 138,777,885

Transactions Granted Early Termination under HSR Act: (Note Date: March 31, 2010):
http://www.ftc.gov/bc/earlyterm/2010/03/et100331.pdf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

No-no Voogru, I was being facetious . . just taking a playful jab at Lloyd Handwringer aka Havakasha

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You rang? :). Well finally we get to listen to some liberal media on Sirius.:D LOL.

Yes i would agree this is not the reason for 600 million shares traded today. Seems like a whole host of reasons. I quess we should understand more about whats going on in the next few days.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Havakasha

You rang? :). Well finally we get to listen to some liberal media on Sirius.:D LOL.

Yes i would agree this is not the reason for 600 million shares traded today. Seems like a whole host of reasons. I quess we should understand more about whats going on in the next few days.

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Wow Lloyd, I think you may actually agree with john on this . . . it would appear to my untrained eye, however, that Liberty is buying in the open market and may not be done yet . . . surprising though that the price did not run a bit more with this kind of volume*

If Liberty continues buying over the next 2 days, the April 29 NASDAQ appeal hearing will be rendered moot (perhaps why the delayed hearing date was sought in the first place).

As Liberty takes ownership of these shares, increasing their stake from 40% up to a potential cap of 49.9%, any common added to the Liberty portfolio are effectively removed from the float for the time being.


*(this is all speculation on my part based on HSR early termination and record volume - dyodd; I do not believe predicted Q1 results, MSNBC signing or March auto sales have anything at all to do with today's volume and price movement)

SR, you may well be right that this is all about Liberty buying up shares. Should know shortly. Would be great if we could get the R/S issues behind us by staying over $1 for 10 days.

Here's what's going on with SIRI. You guys need me to go on vacation and stop following SIRI. Wow!! What a week, though Liberty's increasing share count has me wondering.

For Julie - the weather in eastern PA was sunny and HOT, and now I come back to MI for rain and cold. "quid pro quo" = you scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours. That's easier than SRK's definition. Capisce?

I had a buy order in for 78 last week that didn't get filled. $hit. We know the routine. This time around we'll see $1.30 before it retraces.

If I had to make a call on anything, it would be that the news SIRIXM just signed MSNBC to be on, if anything held the PPS down and was a big drag on the PPS. That is more wasted money.


For Havasucker, just so you know you dumb twit, I could careless about it being liberial. It is not about that, I actually think the Rosey deal was a semi good one. It is all about the ratings MSNBC gets, and they are the lowest around. The only reason I can think of that SIRIXM even bothered to put MSNBC on is because SIRIXM is getting paid to do it and they had some wasted bandwidth to do it.


As for the RS issue, if Liberty is getting its stake up to 49.9% then at that point the RS will happen because after that they will have nothing (acually very little) to lose by doing it. The only reason Liberty had not to support a RS was the added cost it would take to get the extra 10%. I predict if that is what actually happen then sometime in the future we will see a RS happen but at a lower rate then what was before thought. Did anyone catch the news about a new vote coming to extend the RS isssue and to change the terms of that RS to include a 2 for 1 and no greater then 10 for 1.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by john

Did anyone catch the news about a new vote coming to extend the RS isssue and to change the terms of that RS to include a 2 for 1 and no greater then 10 for 1.

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Yes, I saw that as well; the fact that they have lowered the ratios has lead some to speculate that there is a greater likelihood that they actually will R/S.

I have stated this many times before but will say it again . . to me, the most valuable consequence of a reverse split would be MARGIN BUYING coming back into play . . . so at this the point, the 1-for-2 doesn't do diddly-squat for me.

If the Company does ultimately decide that a R/S is "in the best interest of shareholders," then I want it at the highest ratio possible . . if you toy around with staying too close to $5 on the Reverse, the shorts will smell the blood of MARGIN CALLS and knock it back down below marginable levels, which creates forced selling and facilitates further shorting . .

I still do not think they will R/S . . . even with Liberty at 49.9% . . . remember one thing, us "unsophisticated shareholders" have virtually no ability to influence corporate governance . . . I think Mel & Frear and Malone kinda like it that way ;)

It is not uncommon to see various posts around the net professing Liberty's lack of desire to take outright ownership of Siri based on John Malone's history of similar ventures . . . and maybe they are right.

But take note, part of John Malone's current divestiture of his interest in Direct TV proposes paying himself a 20% premium on his preferred shares without a shareholder vote.

Now try that one on for size . . .

That's why I like that Relmor is firing warning shots across the bow now . . . no more sneaking up on us!

watch this:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1463330379&play=1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

It is not uncommon to see various posts around the net professing Liberty's lack of desire to take outright ownership of Siri based on John Malone's history of similar ventures . . . and maybe they are right.

But take note, part of John Malone's current divestiture of his interest in Direct TV proposes paying himself a 20% premium on his preferred shares without a shareholder vote.

Now try that one on for size . . .

That's why I like that Relmor is firing warning shots across the bow now . . . no more sneaking up on us!

watch this:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1463330379&play=1

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relmor is a freak. Really he is now saying DTV and Liberty are out for themselves!!!!! If you have been going there Sirius Roadkill, then you would have saw me telling relmor this from the beginning and him saying, NO, NO, Liberty and John Malone are good for SIRIXM.

Let me guess this still does not sound fare to Havasucker:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nearly...67323.html?x=0

Yes thats right folks that is still under the Bush tax cuts. Yet Obama and people like Havasucker think that is still not fare enough.

It brings to mind an old Maggie Thatcher comment: "Socialism is great until the money runs out"

That is why socialism never works everytime it is tried.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by john

relmor is a freak. Really he is now saying DTV and Liberty are out for themselves!!!!! If you have been going there Sirius Roadkill, then you would have saw me telling relmor this from the beginning and him saying, NO, NO, Liberty and John Malone are good for SIRIXM.

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From Relmor's article:

"Did Liberty get a great deal on circumstances they on paper had zero to do in creating? Yes. In fact, as it turned out, they got 40% of a 2.7 billion dollar a year revenue cash cow for free. Yes that’s right. I said free. They ended up paying zero dollars for 40% control of billions in assets, cash generating abilities, and spectrum. Wow. Liberty made out like a bandit. What great timing for them. Malone is the luckiest man in the world, obviously."

Link:

http://www.kingofalltrades.com/2010/...html#more-1473

Tuna . . come back to me baby . . ya gotta keep up with the newsflow . . 600mm shares ain't about Q-1 auto sales

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/s...aughing021.gif

thestreet.con checking in today
By Andrea Tse 04/08/10 - 03:26 PM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Sirius XM(SIRI) stock jumped as much as 4.1% to 99 cents a share during midday trading Thursday despite a relatively quiet news day for the company.

SIRI UPS&P analyst Tuna Amobi thinks that its upward momentum may be related to stronger-than-expected March sales for the auto industry.
"This suggests another strong quarter for automotive channel unit sales for Sirius," Amobi said.

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/s...aughing001.gif

At midday Thursday, Sirius XM stock edged closer to reaching the Nasdaq listing requirement mandating that stocks maintain a minimum bid price of $1. A stock that falls below these standards, but then manages to close above a dollar for 10 consecutive business days regains compliance with the NASDAQ.
In February, Sirius XM stock, which had been trading below a dollar for some time, broke through this $1 threshold and managed to stay above it for several days in a row; though the stock eventually retreated before those 10 straight business days had passed by. On March 26, Sirius said that the NASDAQ has scheduled a hearing for April 29, at which Sirius XM would be given the opportunity to ask for continued listing on the NASDAQ, pending its re-compliance with NASDAQ's $1 a share rule.

Sirius XM's CEO Mel Karmazin sounds confident about the company's ability to stay listed. "SIRIUS XM is one of the most liquid securities on The NASDAQ Global Select Market; we have a large investor base consisting of both individual and prominent institutional stockholders; and our equity capitalization is greater than approximately 92% of the companies listed on The NASDAQ Global Select Market. We are committed to remaining listed on The NASDAQ Global Select Market," Karmazin said in a statement.

Sirius stock is trading up 2.2% at 97 cents Thursday afternoon.

-- Written by Andrea Tse in New York

Note to Jimmy Cramer: Hey Jimmy, remember how pissed you were that no one tipped you-off about the $250mm in Feb Converts? Get ready to be pissed again . . .

Quote:

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Originally Posted by john

Did anyone catch the news about a new vote coming to extend the RS isssue and to change the terms of that RS to include a 2 for 1 and no greater then 10 for 1.

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Faber: RIGHT. I'VE GOT LESS THAN 30 SECONDS. THE STOCK PRICES IS VERY LOW --

Karmazin: IT SUCKS.

Faber: IT'S A VERY LOW PRICE. FORGET MARKET CAP. ARE YOU GOING TO DO A REVERSE SPLIT? IT'S EMBARRASSING TO LOOK AT SOMETHING WITH A ONE IN FRONT OF IT.

Karmazin: WELL, IT'S EMBARRASSING, AND I HOPE WE WON'T HAVE TO LOOK AT SOMETHING WITH A ONE IN FRONT OF IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

Faber: COULD YOU CONSIDER A REVERSE SPLIT JUST TO GET THE STOCK PRICE UP THERE? SOME PEOPLE CAN'T EVEN BUY THAT KIND OF A STOCK.

Karmazin: YOU KNOW, WE CAN CONSIDER ANYTHING, BUT THERE'S NOBODY THAT I FOUND THAT THEY REALLY CAN'T BUY IT. IF SOMEBODY REALLY WANTS TO OWN THIS STOCK and they WANT TO HAVE A GROWTH, THEY CAN BUY IT AT THIS PRICE. IT'S MECHANICS. IT'S A SPLIT, AND I JUST THINK THAT WALL STREET'S SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW WHAT THE VALUE IS.

Lazard has a $1.35 price target on SIRI shares, which they argue is supported by their discounted cash flow model. The target is 15.2x 2011E adjusted EBITDA. The analysts wrote that they "see rising revenues, steady fixed costs, falling debt, and long-term tax shields driving a steep cash flow ramp to north of $1 billion by 2015."

Link:

http://www.benzinga.com/trading-idea...nt-upside-siri

Time to add to my list. LOL..

No need to read John's stuff in this thread. Let me save you the time and give you a shorthand version of John's arguments. Ho, twit, dumbass, Socialism, MSNBC coming on board was a bad deal and its holding SXM's stock down, Ho Socialist, Communist, dumbass twit, its getting colder in the U.S. not warmer, Ho twit, Socialist, dumbass Communist, the stock market its going up only because of Bush, Socialist dumbass twit, hybrids will never be technologically or economically viable, Socialist, Socialist, Socialist,dumbass twit. I have a very high IQ. :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by julietoo

Thanks for the link SRK. I hope we see a long hard upward trend and
sustainable. :)

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Now, cut that out!!

There are children who are investors in siri who visit here. They are a large portion of the investors who depend on this site for information.

Charles will have to place an XXX rating on the site if you keep this up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Atypical

Now, cut that out!!

There are children who are investors in siri who visit here. They are a large portion of the investors who depend on this site for information.

Charles will have to place an XXX rating on the site if you keep this up.

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Why Atyp, I don't know of whence you speak. Keep what up?

I am just so excited to see how fast it has risen. :thumbsup:
It's such an incredibly good feeling to have come
this far. ;)

Charles would never put an XXX rating on this site. Besides I am the
Moderator, I uphold the standards. :cool:

Julie

Any last words on this subject? You're not going to let me win every one
are you? :p

Premarket trading above $1.00

Today will be the beginning of a successful 10 day compliance run . . .

The April 29 Appeals Panel Hearing can be canceled

Now we know why Mel was stalling on the hearing date ;)

Damn! That MSNBC deal must be whats keeping it below the $1 mark. :D