81 and a half cents for the close today.
It feels good to own Sirius today. I can't wait to see what Friday has in store for us!
Congratulations to everyone who has been holding and waiting for this uptrend.:)
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81 and a half cents for the close today.
It feels good to own Sirius today. I can't wait to see what Friday has in store for us!
Congratulations to everyone who has been holding and waiting for this uptrend.:)
It definitely feels real good right now. Things are really looking up for the future as well. Going to be interesting to see what happens in the near and long term.
I quess Big Ben wont be appearing here too soon.
Yeah, he's too busy making a killing on FAZ. Then again he can reappear trying to convince everyone to sell, take profit and suggest a re-entry point for when SIRI retraces.Quote:
Originally Posted by Havakasha
SIRI really has some legs due to a series of fortunate events. A couple more would rock.
I'm no expert on stocks, but I think it is widely accepted that SIRI has too many shares outstanding. Bring on some more coverage, good results and the R/S. Then the race is really on.
Man - I hope that guy is day trading or swing trading FAZ like you are supposed too. Like I said before most people don't understand leverged ETFs and how their values are derived from options, swaps, futures, etc. With options decay, it kills you going when the market goes sideways. Example, FAZ supposedly is 3X on a daily basis in the opposite direction of RIFIN. However, when the vix is low, you get less oomph up in FAZ when RIFIN goes down or sideways, then when volatility is high. This makes it lose correlation to the underlying over time.
So...
Looking at the last sideways movement of RIFIN using a weekly chart, the open from the beginning of Sept was 768.03, today it is at 759.83 for a loss of -1.07%.
Now, if you wanted to be short financials, and wanted 3X, you could actually short IYF, but just do 3 times the amount. During this period, the change was minute, so your gain would be 0.58% times 3 or 1.74% if you shorted 3X the amount of money (it's a little off since IYF isn't truly RIFIN).
FAZ on the other hand, while trying to replicate 3X daily over a long period of time becomes uncorrelated to that ratio over time... thus, during that same period it opened at 23.50, and closed at 19.51 today... so did FAZ gain 3X and print a 3.21% gain (1.07% times 3)? Nope, it lost actually, while RIFIN is down -1.07%, during that same period and FAZ is not only not up 3.21%, but actually down -16.98%.
Now with a rapid decline in price in RIFIN and a rise in volatility, you can make that up, but not on a slow decline in price.
So, if you guys are planning on going short, go short for real, don't use FAZ and the like to do it, unless you know the risks and read volatility, or do the alternative, day or swing trade them. In which case, you can do likewise with FAS or going short FAZ depending on the direction of the day or swing.
I know I posted this crap before, just don't want anyone thinking these leverged ETF's are for holding for 2 weeks or more. You'll lose the price correlation to the underlying, and then it's just luck whether you are right or not, unless you can get a feel for volatility as well and how it correlates to the underlying, but when plotted, there isn't an easily recognizable correlation. If you think the market is turning down, and want to dollar cost average going short, just go short on a regular ETF. As you can see, if you went short IYF back in Sept waiting for a downturn, you'd be up today, but not down like FAZ.
How easily the masses are fooled. I have to check some charts to explain my dead money comment, and yes Shawshank it was dead money. Good for everyone holding, I am not a hater but a realist. The recent pop only makes me want to convince you the buy and holders to protect your recent gains, (three days worth?) even more. If I have to fall on the sword and be the cause of the money to go from dead to alive again, then so be it. Be back with some info and food for thought. Dr Dave, why is FAZ so bad..because of the 3x leverage? or what? Can you elaborate on this?
Big Ben, the catalyst, your welcome all! Even though all of the gains will most likely go unrealized...atleast you can feel wealthier for while...ha ha.
"Even though the gains will likely go unrealized..."
Sounds like a hater to me. :)
One of these days your quesses just might be correct.
Let me explain dead money. Pull up a one year chart with the volume on the bottom. Feb 12th –March 18th was what you call a winner, .06-.37…GOAL! High volume, Malone’s loan saved the day. Thank you! March 18th-August 4th another range .37-.54 hot stock, high volume, lots of short term money to be made. Early August Siri cracked the .5 mark and didn’t look back, hooray. Volume is still solid. I sold 10k at .7696 on August 21, 9:34 am, this ended up being very nice sell. Septembers range was .6-.7 on good volume. Oct is where the money dies. Oct, Nov, Dec, half Jan, the range is .55-.65 the volume is gone and the moves become slow and rounded, not sharp. It’s pretty clear on the graph. Since Tuesday everything has changed, the volume is back, the upgrades are nice but unfortunately for Siri the overall markets were weak on the days when siri popped. I believe this has happened more than just a few times with SIRI. If the overall markets would have been cruising the spike could have been double. Plenty of stocks get upgrades and price targets get laid out and stocks run right up to the number, but not SIRI. I truly believe there is serious bullshit that goes on behind the scenes that does not allow this stock to trade on fundamentals or anything not subjective. I believe the stock should be worth 1-1.25 no questions, but I am also willing to wait to for the manipulation to stop before picking off shares. I would not be unhappy with paying 10 thousand clams for 10 thousand shares, especially if the shanagins are over.
The reverse split is still the game changer, pray every night this stock can hold the 10 day period if it hits the dollar menu. Good luck tomorrow. Hopefully I can get some credibility back considering I picked the bottom and the top, so far I am out .7696-.82ish, not too bad.
Big Ben
We're at 85 cents in premarket this morning. What a great way to start the day!
It's exciting to be within fifteen cents of a buck..
Ben you have to admit you didnt see this jump of the last several days coming. Correct?
Because you admitted you sold your last lot of 2500 shares at .6725.
Correct?
With the 4th quarter results coming dont you think that was an OBVIOUS mistake?
Even though there were plenty of opportunities to make money trading SXM
you have to admit that buying from .6 and holding till now has been a smart strategy?
Have to agree the stock is worth more then it is at right now.
Good luck with your future trades.
Agreed, but what did I lose on 2500 shares, not much. Especially when I used the Realized Profits to purchase more of my short positions...which went up a higher % than siri. Your also committing the Monday morning qb mistake...everyone sees the linebacker dropping in coverage on ESPN on Monday. The ? you have to ask yourself is if this move was so obvious did you commit new money or is buy and hold good enough going forward. I am truly excited about everyones gains, Mel included. This was the spike that makes the story at least interesting on the dollar march. If Mel gets an extension on the delisting(6 months), the reverse split that has been authorized runs out I think. This would be huge for the company going forward, hence another proxy vote would have to be taken to authorize another split. This could save the shares holders, old and new. If the split happens, bad things man, bad things. Good luck today and don't be afraid of the sell button...someone on here said it best the stock is 16 cents from a dollar but its also 16c from .68, lol.
Big Ben
First half hour is a head fake, the markets are going to tank today. My shorts are pushing back pretty strong, should be an interesting close. Good Luck
Took a position in SIRI 2500 @ .87....thank god I got some before the rocket ship takes off...you don't want to miss that! LOL.
Big Ben
Dr. Dave - what about SPXU? I've made a little money on that short ETF.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Dave
If anyone is looking for a short term swing trade, FAZ is finding resistance at just above 19$ and it could easily trade as high as 20$ by days end. IMVHO.
Good Luck
Big Ben
Ben, that's going to be a tough nut to hold onto for awhile. I'm feeling like we've run up over 30% this month and it's time for some profit taking. Just my gut feeling, but I think .87 may have been a sell point, not a buy point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Ben
What is this run up all about?
Was the stock beaten down and undervalued? If so, why the turnaround now?
Is this the typical run up before earnings?
Or, is something big coming that we are all not privy to?
I am another FAZ trader. Mostly I do just the daily swing trades. But when it bounces off the bollinger bands on a daily I get in and ride it. So this last time I have been holding since the 14th. Should have got out a few days ago when it rubbed the top but Hey I am in a free trade so with the market doing what it is doing I am hanging in there as long as it stays above the 8 ema. So Dr. Dave, while your advice is very good advice for faz, It isnt the only way to make money in it either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Ben
As far as getting in now if you do just keep tight stops.
As far as SIRI I am still long with an .11c average. Feb 17th frees me up a little cause of Capital gains but I will still hold for 1.26-1.45 that I think we will make by next year.( I should note that I also had shares that were much higher but already sold those and another batch from .05 that brought me into a free trade)
I don't know, but there was plenty of good news coming out. S&P upgraded SIRI and two more firms initiated coverage and I know one put a "buy" rating it. Volume is crazy high.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
You do bring up a good point in that traditionally there has been a run up before the earnings report (or unearnings report), but this time around, they announced some basic results in advance.
All I can say is that it's all good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Pre-announcement of over 250,000 4th quarter new subscriptions which beat estimates by a lot. I believe 2 new firms initiated coverage of the stock with $1.00 target. Howard Stern seeming to say he wouldnt go to terrestrial radio. SXM is supposed to announce first (?) positive earning this past quarter. Liberty and john Malone's involvement with SXM which could mean some interesting synergies going forward. And more......
Holding is good enough for me right now but i did buy 5,000 additional shares from .65 to.68. Not a lot, but it did seem kind of obvious to me after their pre-announcement of over 250,000 4th quarter new subscriptions, new coverage initiated with $1.00 target, and other positive stories that if SXM was ever going to rise NOW was the time. I dont consider that monday morning quarterbacking but i understand where you might think so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Ben
Yes the reverse split is a big issue going forward and from what Mel said i knew he would do everything he could to avoid it ( another reason to believe this stock would head higher). It still remains to be seen what he has up his sleeve to bring SXM over $1.00 for ten straight days before March 15. It is indeed an exciting time for SXM shareholders.
What odds would you place on SXM going higher or going back to .68?