Very good words from Maffei, VERY mild winter so far, quiet dry so far :D How are you doing?
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Very good words from Maffei, VERY mild winter so far, quiet dry so far :D How are you doing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by julietoo
First to you julie, I have always believed Stern will not retire any time to soon, his ego is way to big for that. If that is the case then he really has nowhere else to go and get what SIRIXM gave him or even anything close to it. Lets face facts here, Stern took advandge of a position SIRI was in at the time, that time has now changed and Stern and Mel know this. I also think he will get much less then before. For those that want to run a comparison then just go back to what Stern was getting before SIRI hired Stern. Of course then you have to also add in the cost of his channels lets remember much of that 500 million (100 million per year plus 234 million in stock) went to building and producing the 2 channels with his name on them. Fact is I think Stern will not only stay for less but will get some kind of face saving option like less total hours or moving the time forward or doing the show from his home. Stern also is no dummy he knows that he could retire but still keep the channels with his name going and reap major money for basically doing nothing (when compared to before) plus he will get the added bonus of not burning a bridge so if he likes he could return very easy without looking like he made a mistake.
Havakasha, I have made a projection long ago of the number of subscribers stern was responsible for bring to SIRI, it was 2.2 million. The facts were there to back that number up. The first one is the jump in the number of subscribers that SIRI had after the news came out about Stern going to SIRI. There is no other way to show any other reason for the jump in subscribers, after taking out any increase of OEM penitration, it still falls way short of SIRI jumping up to 1 million subs in a quarter compared to what they got in quarters before biggest increase was 300,000 until Stern came in. Also there was a clear fan base talked about if you were reading much of SIRI news back then. Many including Mel talked about at least 2.6 of the 11 million listeners being very big vans, to the fact that they have spent more on Stern products in a year then the cost of a subcribtion. Taking those numbers all together and there in no way that stern got less then 2.2 million people to come to SIRI and may be as many as 3.2.
doclogic, now after saying what I have said above I will also agree with you on that, just because Stern was responsible for getting at least 2.2 million subscribers, it does not mean more then 500,000 will be lost if he leaves. I would also like to say that if Stern continues his other channels without him on them then that loss would most likely be alot less.
The basic fact is Stern will get less because the same situation in which contracts are being talked about are no where the same, the ball is now not in Sterns court it is in SIRIXM's court. Stern options have been basically reduced to retiring or working for SIRIXM that was not the case before.
toxdoc, I know you would like to say he has plenty of other options but really his own pod cased for what was discussed before for a dollar a month. First the problems are really to many to go into but here are a few. Stern will then have to gamble that he still has the popularity to get to a point that it is going to be profitable that could be more of a gamble then his ego will allow. Considering if he just stays put then he could most likely earn more then going out on his own. As for terrestrial stations how can Stern explain, first why he said he would never go back to terrestrial he is now back to them, Then he has to explain why he was willing to go back and get less then what SIRIXM was willing to give him (even though it was less then before). Because yes thats right there is no way terrestrial will be able to come even close to what SIRIXM will still be offering. There is noway Stern ego will allow anything that makes him look like he was wrong.
They know who is listening to what by the ISD number (i think that's what it's called) on each individual radio.Quote:
Originally Posted by Havakasha
As far as Stern goes, who knows, but I think his audience is a little larger than 2.2 MM subs. I don't know the sub growth since his signing, but wasn't it larger than 2.2 MM??
Do the math. 2 MM subs at $10 per month = $20 MM per month x 12 months = $240 MM in revenue (conservatively). How much of that is he worth? I'm thinking this is his side of the negotiation.
I have 3 subs. If Stern goes, I will have less than 3 subs. Yes, I enjoy the product, but Stern is the major reason.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong
SiriuslyLong, the 2.2 million number is for the 4th quarter prior and the following 1.75 years after Stern came to SIRI. If you notice Stern only got the bonuses for that time and nothing after that. Also while many called for the "Stern effect" to tapper off in the first year they found they had been off by almost 9 months.
Finally while that is a simple way to add up the numbers to see if Stern was worth it or not you forget about the cost of the radio which at the time when Stern got most of his subscribers cost SIRI much more then they were selling them for. For at least the first 6 months and up to a year, that 10 dollars a month went to the extra cost of the radio.
P.S. If you dont believe me just take a look at what SAC numbers were back then.
John - Stern got most of his subscribers 2.5 - 3.5 years ago. I agree my "model" is extremely simple, but pretty good for top line use. Feel free to refine it with additional costs.Quote:
Originally Posted by john
Can you clarify one thing for me? BM had written an article last month saying that the $100 MM was for the show, and Howard's pay was a portion of that. Is that true?
The 100 million Howard got per year was to also pay for the running costs (salaries and all other expenses) of his channels.
Interesting, keeping it simple then, SIRI makes out to the tune of $140 MM in the example noted above. What's missing? It can't be that simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Havakasha
Quote:
Originally Posted by doclogic
Good Morning doclo and guys,
And welcome, especially after agreeing with me. :D
Another thought/point, I would like to bring up. Back when I listened
to Stern on terrestrial, his show was edgy, shocking and censored to
a great deal.
I looked forward to hearing all those missing words and pieces
that were eliminated from his show. So after the intial 'Oh my God,
did he really say that?!!' he lost the shock element of his show that
drew the intial subscribers to follow him to Sirius. Really, how many
four, five and six letter words before we become numb to hearing
them? Other eliments to his show, great interveiws for instance,
draw me in to listen. But great interveiws can be found elsewhere
on my dial. If he decides to leave I will miss him, for a short
time, but in no way would I cancel my sub. And I am not alone
in my thinking, in my opinion.
Like John said Howards ego is too big for him to just walk away,
disappearing into the woodwork. Wealthy or not, he needs to
be in the limelight.
Good to see you and all the new members posting. Especially
good when you are agreeing with me. ;) :p
Julie :)
Yes it is. BM is about 2 years to late for that information though because it was talked about at least that long ago here at Sirius Buzz. Stern also had to use some of that to build the sets for the two channels. He produces both of them with much of the expeniense coming from Stern himself. Dont get me wrong here SIRIXM still covers some to alot to all of the pay for others on his 2 channels. "Bubba the love Sponge" is a good example were SIRIXM picks up the cost of him.Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong
SiriuslyLong, Also on point of that "ISD number", while XMSR had that tech to track what people were listening to, long before SIRI it was not until just a year ago SIRI had that. As a matter of fact the article I read inwhich it talked about that, was never confirmed to be true and there was other evidence (ho yes by that bastard homer) that they still could not track that information up till 6 months ago. So I am even reluctant to say they can do it at this time.
P.S. To be honest it may have been Tyler, I am not sure which bastard it was.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Havakasha
SAC is the other issue weather someone like "FrontMed" wants to make it one or not I guess. Personally I dont think it is really a big deal, to think it was at all possible to pospone Stern's contract until the cost of the radios came down is crazy so you paid the extra cost. Anything else would be like saying, "Ho we dont want that many subscribers right now we would rather get them later." See how crazy that is. Although it still applies to the OEM market were it makes no sence to have penitration into low priced cars, where many of the people dont keeo the service after the promo ends. That is a cost they could have done without.
John,Quote:
Originally Posted by john
I never said anything about him having other options, so I don't know where that comment is coming from. He's either going to renew or retire in my opinion. I was just saying that I think it's a little naive to think that his leaving won't have palpable impact on SXM subcriber base.
Couple of things about Stern. First of all he has also thrown around the idea of putting his show on the web. This is attractive to him because he owns the means of distribution as well as the show and besides being a control freak and wanting full control of everything, he doesnt have to pay a penny to the corporate weasels we all know he hates. Its already fundamentally being broadcast over the web as it is now thru the sirius player so in reality very little will change for many listeners except to who they sign their monthly payment over to if this pans out.
Secondly the figure of 2.2 Million members due to Stern is WAY low because when Stern came to Siri their membership was at like 500,000 units or something. When merger talks became serious that number was in the 6 million area( give or take on either figure) Stern was given credit for most of this expansion by the company itself and they gave him a bunch of additional incentive money for meeting subscription rates and far exceeding those estimates.
Also ive asked this before and never really got an answer. I bought a lifetime subscription for my siri 4 years ago. That money was booked 4 years ago and i never have to pay a penny to sirius again. Am i considered a subscriber despite the fact that Sirius gets zero additional income from me? How is the fact that im a customer with no bottom line skew the "Paid" annual subscribers numbers?
jonpluc@aol.com, First as for Stern going out on his own it is not just Stern it is his crew which cost. A good starting point would be lets say 75 million a year. because he would at least need to get something close to what he was going to be offered from SIRIXM before he would even think about taking such a risk. So second weather or not Stren could get the amount of people to come over and pay for it is a matter that can be argued. That still does not take away from the fact it is a huge risk and one Sterns ego may not allow. That is to say, the worse case is that it does not pan out and where does Stern go from there? The fact is that it is nowhere, because if he cant bring enough people over to make it profitable (or worth it to him), who else would hire him he just proved he was not worth what he was getting before (see what I mean about the risk). Now after a career like his it is not a sort of risk I think Sterns ego could take. Then there is the fact Stern was their for the beginning rise of satellite radio, so do you really think he is going to leave just before it becomes a real powerhouse. Stern would like nothing more then to say: Look how important I am, I not only save satellite radio but was the main reason it is what it is today. Reguardless if it is actually true or not it also is not able to be disproved and Stern has made much more bold statements with less proof.
Now as for your disbelief in the estimate it is clear that you are not that knowledgable about the early workings of satellite radio (no offence because while you may know more about many other things then I do. I do know about the sub numbers better then you), the 500,000 sub remark is proof of that because it was actually over a million (for SIRI) in the 3rd quarter (of 2004) just before Stern started to say anything about him coming to SIRI (over 500,000 is a lot of take). Next you have to look at how much the 4th quarter of years prior for both SIRI and XMSR to come to some kind of guess as to what SIRI numbers would have been without Stern. Then you have to look at how much the OEMs started increase their penititration for SIRI because if you go back and look you will see it also was the time of the OEMs doing major ramp ups into penitration rates. Also the Stern effect ended in (which quarter was argued by analyst) ether the second or the third quarter of the next year. Hence the reason Stern did not get any more bonuses after the second quarter of the second year. Also if you go back and look, subscribers took a major drop off after that time.
As for your last question I am surprised you never got an answer because it is really simple. You advanced payment is figured kind of like defered revenue and is calculated as the months pass. I believe they take it over a 5 year time frame. It was talked about long ago in a CC.
P.S. Where is my dime?
I noticed this morning that SIRI has been raised to LONG from NEUTRAL at Market Edge Second Opinion Weekly. This is the second upgrade by them in recent months.
More good news seems to be coming all the time. Cant wait to see their 4th quarter figures.
I have been ask to rescue this ghost town lol...:rolleyes:
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.a...=ShortInterest
Short interest falls again, only by roughly 1.8 million.
Rescue this ghost town? Good Luck! I'm starting to think it is a permanent condition. Thanks for the short interest data.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hopeful
I guess we are holding tight for the 4Q09 CC.
Is this site going under? I would not be surprised. I am posting my moves from earlier this week in my Roth. I dumped my remaining shares of SIRI at .6725. I funded my roth at the turn of the new year, and I am picking of shares of my only two stocks, FAZ, FXP. These stocks have been under performing, consistently, they short the banks and China. When this current bubble breaks I hope to see a nice run up in both. I am posting this only because I am committing new capital. I picked off 200 shares of FXP at 7.93 and 150 of FAZ at 17.21....this takes me up to 1000 of FXP and 800 of FAZ. Good luck to all and DYODD. As for SIRI...its dead money folks, I would not own a single share before the reverse split. Can anyone please tell me why with a reverse split on the table why would you not sell shares and buy them back later, cheaper?
Big Ben
Waiting for the 4th quarter announcement and besides i am not a trader but a long term investor. Whether you think thats wise or not its worked out for me so far on SXM. Bought starting at 7 cents. Its been a great run and i will save tax after it becomes a long term gain.