Sirius Weekly Thread Week of 8-24-2009

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

nope.

"the liberty shares have already diluted the existing shares"

this is precisely why you must use the expected "FULLY DILUTED FLOAT" before calculating the correct earnings per share (EPS) . . if the "street" is already anticipating/valuing the equity based on 8,000,000,000 shares (as it correctly should), why would someone then discount that by 37.5% before calculating EPS?

now go sit down in the back of the room . . .

as to the other assumptions . . . john will take it from here . . .

P.S. It is true that the SP should not drop upon the conversion precisely due to the fact that an 8bn share float is already baked into the matrix . .

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You bastard, how did you know. I was working on my reply as you wrote this.

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

what am I missing with the article on the main page?

who is scott spiegel?

I don't remember ever reading any other posts or blogs by him?

little help roc?

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It is something Charles post every once in a while. It looks like for now he was a guest poster, as he says that last article will be his last.

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Originally Posted by john

First of all if you were a teacher of mine, I would burn the school down and start from scrath.


As for 1.) As said before and to get it through your dumb thick skull, I will say it again. SIRIXM as I have been saying for the longest time (and now SIRIXM is started to say) WILL NEVER BE AT A FULL PENETRATION. As a matter of fact you can start to look for a reduction of the penetration rate in the future. Mel basically said it himself when he said that they went to far to fast into the lower priced models and that it was not being cost effective to go into those lower cost models.


As for Canada, Mexico and anything else, It may have slipped your feeble mind but Canada is already a seperate company that SIRIXM owns a portion of, that while they will get a portion of that businesses revenue (to include payment for the content and satellite support) That it has taken 3 years for them to get up to a combined (If you put both SIRI and XMSR together) 1.1 million subscribers. Mexico anything else, will (if they ever get that far) will most likely be done on the same model as Canada.


As for 2.) You say we are talking about the future, well I would at least like to talk about my future investment in the company or least my kids or grandkids, something in the 21st century would be nice. Look you dipwad do you even know what the ARPU was when they first started about 8.5 years ago was. Go check it out,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,are you done yet? If so, you found out that it really as not changed (and had actually gone down from the high) and while that will change in the coming quarters it will not change that much when considering the 15 dollar price tag you are talking about. So even if we take the new price increases into effect, the total ARPU will at most go up to 11.5 to 12. That is a at most a total increase of 1.5 dollars in the last 8.5 years.

Your analyst of this is filled with contradictions. You want to inclulde everyone (the masses) yet you then forget there is only so much the masses will pay for radio. There is a reason it took SIRI 8 years to do its first increase.


As for 3. and 4.) They are just wrong. You have 3. as 150 million, should that not be 1.5 billion or 4. should be 1.8 billion according to what you have for 3. If this is how you calculate your numbers is it any wonder why you are confused.


As for 5., 6., 7., 8., 9., 10., 11.) They are based on a seriously flawed and weak foundation so they will not stand up to the facts and therefore are false.


doctorex, You need to go back to school, actually I would not go back to the same one that you went to before. You better change because the one you went to has not done its job.

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Gee Wizz John, that's what I was trying to say. I just don't know how to use that many words at one time!

Tyler said this:

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q3 Numbers

I have had an onslaught of emails asking me about Q3, and whether Sirius XM will report a profit.

In short, my answer is no, and here is why.

1. Q3 is traditionally the quarter where the company manufactures their hardware in preparation for q4. This causes variuos metrics like SAC to go UP as there are expenses to manufacturing all of these units.

2. The ramp up in OEM production means more costs. This will also impact SAC. The costs associated with manufacturing and oem subsidies will also whack Sirius XM adjusted EBITDA. This number was $108 million in Q1 and $132 million in Q2. It will be substantially less than $132 million in Q3. People should be prepared for this.

3. The company has another round of 1 time chares including refinancing Sirius debt, XM debt, and final satellite payments. These will hit the company and impact earnings.

This is not a bash, it is just the facts. One time charges cost the company $0.03 cents last quarter. It will impact the company aagain this quarter by 2 or 3 cents. Couple this with higher expenses, and it will be quite difficult for Sirius XM to post a positive EPS.

That being said, media companies do not trade on EPS. They trade on cash flow. Much of the refinancing is helpful to cash flow, so that is a good. Expenses for the OEM channel will generate future subscribers, which is also good.

What the company is doing is good for the long term, but thits in the short will take they will take a hit in the short term.

It is better to deal with and understand the facts than to go into these things misinformed and expecting something that wont happen.
__________________
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder

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Tyler I have said this myself and any one that has been in the stock for sometime knows this already and the they also know that thats why the 4th quarter is so great on a FCF basis and that the 4th quarter FCF will make up for the 3rd quarter. As a simple example if 3rd quarter is a negitive FCF of 100 million then 4th quarter will be a positive FCF of 300 million. Tyler you know full well that because the 1st and 2nd quarter were basically FCF positive that the full year will be FCF positive.



P.S. WHAT FINAL SATELLITE PAYMENTS, I thought they were all paid for. Dont tell me, I have to get my stones out again. Where is johnny!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by candleman

Gee Wizz John, that's what I was trying to say. I just don't know how to use that many words at one time!

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I saw he did not get it from my last post to him, so I tried to make it as simple as possible, that requires alot of words. I got used to it arguing with lloyd.

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Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

nope.

"the liberty shares have already diluted the existing shares"

this is precisely why you must use the expected "FULLY DILUTED FLOAT" before calculating the correct earnings per share (EPS) . . if the "street" is already anticipating/valuing the equity based on 8,000,000,000 shares (as it correctly should), why would someone then discount that by 37.5% before calculating EPS?

now go sit down in the back of the room . . .

as to the other assumptions . . . john will take it from here . . .

P.S. It is true that the SP should not drop upon the conversion precisely due to the fact that an 8bn share float is already baked into the matrix . .

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P.S. You are correct while the liberty deal is baked into the PPS right now, you cant just take it out of the equation and drop the cost of those shares in the end, like the dumbass did. Thats not even getting into the shares that have and will be added to the count. I mean where the hell do you think they are getting the 120 million shares that Mel has the option to buy (that was for the dumbass not you Sirius Roadkill). He is just one man. Believe me there is a reason they got those shares and while alot may not be used, alot will.

Just looking at the trading pattern of the last 3 days, it makes me wonder....

Are we looking at a correction? Each day the selling price has swung around by 6 to 8 cents. That's a pretty wild swing pattern for a 70 cent stock.

Could it be that .77 is our high for awhile? Is it possibly time to take some profits. Obviously a lot of traders are doing just that.

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Originally Posted by john

Tyler said this:

------------------------------------------------------------------------
q3 Numbers

I have had an onslaught of emails asking me about Q3, and whether Sirius XM will report a profit.

In short, my answer is no, and here is why.

1. Q3 is traditionally the quarter where the company manufactures their hardware in preparation for q4. This causes variuos metrics like SAC to go UP as there are expenses to manufacturing all of these units.

2. The ramp up in OEM production means more costs. This will also impact SAC. The costs associated with manufacturing and oem subsidies will also whack Sirius XM adjusted EBITDA. This number was $108 million in Q1 and $132 million in Q2. It will be substantially less than $132 million in Q3. People should be prepared for this.

3. The company has another round of 1 time chares including refinancing Sirius debt, XM debt, and final satellite payments. These will hit the company and impact earnings.

This is not a bash, it is just the facts. One time charges cost the company $0.03 cents last quarter. It will impact the company aagain this quarter by 2 or 3 cents. Couple this with higher expenses, and it will be quite difficult for Sirius XM to post a positive EPS.

That being said, media companies do not trade on EPS. They trade on cash flow. Much of the refinancing is helpful to cash flow, so that is a good. Expenses for the OEM channel will generate future subscribers, which is also good.

What the company is doing is good for the long term, but thits in the short will take they will take a hit in the short term.

It is better to deal with and understand the facts than to go into these things misinformed and expecting something that wont happen.
__________________
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder

------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tyler I have said this myself and any one that has been in the stock for sometime knows this already and the they also know that thats why the 4th quarter is so great on a FCF basis and that the 4th quarter FCF will make up for the 3rd quarter. As a simple example if 3rd quarter is a negitive FCF of 100 million then 4th quarter will be a positive FCF of 300 million. Tyler you know full well that because the 1st and 2nd quarter were basically FCF positive that the full year will be FCF positive.



P.S. WHAT FINAL SATELLITE PAYMENTS, I thought they were all paid for. Dont tell me, I have to get my stones out again. Where is johnny!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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This was a post about Q3 numbers, not Q4, or the entire year.

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Originally Posted by TSavery

This was a post about Q3 numbers, not Q4, or the entire year.

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Yea but Tyler as you know the 3rd and 4th quarters are directly connected more then most realize and I think it is at least important to give more of a mention as to why the third quarter terrible numbers will creat great numbers for the 4th quarter. I saw you mentioned it but some may not be able to put 2 and 2 togrther to realize this. As you said if you had been getting E-mails from people then those same people would need this to be explained more clearly because if they did not understand why the 3rd quarters numbers stink by now then they also dont know why the 4th quarter will be so good. As an example, SIRI was FCF positive for the last half of the 2007, once the FCF for the 4th quarter was put into the 3rd quarter. That was all I was trying to get across.

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Originally Posted by john

P.S. WHAT FINAL SATELLITE PAYMENTS, I thought they were all paid for. Dont tell me, I have to get my stones out again. Where is johnny!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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John....
One of the two satellites was paid for. The one that was just launched by the Ruskies was paid for (an XM sat). The one coming up with bankrupt Sea Launch (a Sirius sat) was not completely paid for. I haven't checked lately to see how Sea Launch is doing with respect to a BK reorg.

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Originally Posted by underway

John....
One of the two satellites was paid for. The one that was just launched by the Ruskies was paid for (an XM sat). The one coming up with bankrupt Sea Launch (a Sirius sat) was not completely paid for. I haven't checked lately to see how Sea Launch is doing with respect to a BK reorg.

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Hey I dont care, I was told they were all paid for. Now I here there is more to pay off. It is just what I was saying before these kinds of payments have way of coming out of the woodwork.

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Originally Posted by john

Yea but Tyler as you know the 3rd and 4th quarters are directly connected more then most realize and I think it is at least important to give more of a mention as to why the third quarter terrible numbers will creat great numbers for the 4th quarter. I saw you mentioned it but some may not be able to put 2 and 2 togrther to realize this. As you said if you had been getting E-mails from people then those same people would need this to be explained more clearly because if they did not understand why the 3rd quarters numbers stink by now then they also dont know why the 4th quarter will be so good. As an example, SIRI was FCF positive for the last half of the 2007, once the FCF for the 4th quarter was put into the 3rd quarter. That was all I was trying to get across.

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Point taken. I have often spoken of the Q3 to Q4 relationship, and it is easy to slip into the assumption that readers already know this. However, with new readers all of the time, it is important for readers to know the dynamic at play

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Originally Posted by candleman

Hey Julie, yes, vacation is very good for business. I think we started to maintain this uptrend when Johnny Irish went on vacation.

So, now someone else needs to leave town so we can all profit. Hey, ROMO, it's about time you take a vacation!!!!:p

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watched pot never boils, but it steams a whole lot and burns your eyes...the volume on siri is continuing to be insanely high....but it just broke to .69, not sure what to make of that swing....50 cent newbies starting the swing trading?

I can see the big moves still aren't out of siri....longs are fine if you can handle the big moves, as long as they keep heading up...and they do..

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Originally Posted by john

Hey I dont care, I was told they were all paid for. Now I here there is more to pay off. It is just what I was saying before these kinds of payments have way of coming out of the woodwork.

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no....Mel said it at the May 7 CC....one paid, one to go...specifically Sea Launch. In fact, you and I had this discussion back then.

.6handle...lets see what the shorts have up their sleeves? I think they are holding AA. Good luck...shame...shame to all who did not shave shares at .77....it was there for the taking! Two full days to grab at .77 and now what, should be an exciting close for some one with only 5k shares and cash. If we finish weak, tomorrow could get slippery, what do you think Relmor?

GLA

someone here at work wanted a new car with SXM but said "why can't they just give it free?" i said it comes with 3 months free, she said awesome...but i bet she won't renew...

somehow they have to monetize the radios that are not activated...plain and simple...to hit that $90 pps, that is...

I definately don't want to hear commercials...but, why not have commercials across the screen visually??????

coming back up......the quick profit takers gone home for the day. Level II looks strong enough to keep it north of .71 till close.

Relmor...is volatility for real! For a trader with any scratch how can you not make money on these swings...if you are a true long...its almost free for the taking. GLA....I will go on record as saying this stock continues to amaze me!

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Originally Posted by underway

no....Mel said it at the May 7 CC....one paid, one to go...specifically Sea Launch. In fact, you and I had this discussion back then.

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underway, Your really starting to kill the joke on Johnny.

Yes, this stock continues to amaze!
I was able to pick up another block at .695.
We had a solid close, but I am concerned about the swings. Obviously there are buyers out there at the .70 and above level.