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from Mel:
"we currently have zero plans to have a free advertising driven service. We like our business model and we think that the subscriber revenue is a very important part of it, though we do reserve the right, obviously, as years go on and as more and more subscribers are out there to consider having an advertising driven business, separate and apart, as well."
Hi everyone,
Sorrry, if this rerun. Ford announced Thursday a 2.3 billion dollar
profit, driven by an accounting credit for debt reduction. The company lost money, 1 billion, on automotive operations for the quarter.
More good news than bad, sign things are beginning to turn around. :)
Enjoy the day,
Julie
Roadkill, are you saying that we are a "bunch of amatures on a blog"?:DQuote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
I will say that I am not a financial advisor, but...I do tend to get the numbers pretty close
I like how Ford has handled this situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by julietoo
LOL . . . sorry Tyler (I exaggerated a bit there for effect) . .Quote:
Originally Posted by TSavery
Yes. Yes in-deed. Your estimates have been very-very reliable and you have produced the work product to back it up.
Analysts are scared shitless about not getting guidance! Why?
Because it can expose just how inept they really are . . just watch how many misses come in on the next Q or the Q after that; screw them! F them!
even when he had all the data on a silver platter Mark Wienkies still could not interpret correctly . . . or interpret it with integrity.
Now we will find out who the quality analysts really are . . no more fill-in-the blank quizes or open-book-tests. If you are a quality analyst, now you will have an opportunity to distinguish your self from your breathren and you should welcome that opportunity . . not piss and moan about it.
Traders/analysts are compensated on short-term incentives . . too FN bad; Mel is not running the company for you to "make your spiff" for the quarter . . he is running the company for long term investors . .
The analysts will now have to earn their keep . . if they don't like the risk of being wrong by more than a penny then find another occupation or go cover another stock . . if the day-traders don't like it. tough shit . . the company is not run for swing trades
good info Julie . . . perhaps the second half of the year will be better for our OEM partners . . . fortunately, Mel is managing expenses based on a run-rate of 9mm units for '09Quote:
Originally Posted by julietoo
Good points. And Tyler touched on a sore subject from me. Once guidance was removed, the analyists showed there true colors. I actually believed the average opinion on subs from analyists, assuming they were at least accurate to some degree. Well, they missed it bad. Curiously bad. I refuse to believe they didnt know how to at least get it close. Maybe not though. Last time I listen to an analyist for anything. At all. They are all shrills with agendas. Period. Never heard otherwise. There opinions can be bought, or they are in that position for other dubious means. If you can find me a well publicized honest analyist, I would be surprised. Im now kind of leaning towards roadkills view on this one now. I agree. **** em. LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Let everyone wonder. Make the stock heavily bought into calls on pure speculation. Give guidance on a few other things though, at some point, and they will.
The problem with many analysts is that they build a bad model, and rather than rework it, try to "adjust" to compensate. I have seen many say that trying to figure out the various metrics can be hard. Well, it is hard, but worth it when you feel that you have a finger on the pulse of an equity.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Figuring this stuff out is not rocket science, but there are many out there who are simply lazy.
There are indeed wild cards in many of these metrics, but that is where understanding how everyting comes together is in play. Some assign far too much value to certain items, and wind up giving estimates that are way outside the box.
I look at things from many angles prior to arriving at my conclusions. I have seen some call for negative subs, yet say that revenue will be a huge boost, and because of that that the company will have an EPS gain, or break even. Some do not understand how all of these metrics interconnect.
cheers
. . taking the ole lady out for lunch . . be back later :)
This part i agree with 100%,,you are right..Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
as heard today on "Mad Dog Radio" XM channel 144 . . .
Bud Selig, Commissioner of Major League Baseball confirms that a meeting with Sirius XM management is scheduled for next week to discuss broadcast of Major League Baseball on Sirius . . . stay tuned.
Would be nice if an agreement can be reached before the Aug 6 CC . . I'm betting it will . . .
just listened to last nights radio show . . couple thoughts:
1. Agree about all-in churn as preferred metric; better barometer of overall performance
2. Good explanation of CPO cash flow - no revenue during promo period but no churn upon deactivation. I do believe that in the near future when we discuss total annual run-rate we will have to include CPO sales
3. Better volume on Charles but still a touch light
4. Fascinating that you two have never met face-to-face; it's 1984
last: Is it just me or does Charles' voice sound a bit like "Tom Green"
also has a very subtle Candian twang to it
Nice. Hope it goes well. Baseball, as all sports, are desperate for money. Mel wins again. See Mr. Selig, we dont need you on best of sirius. It would be nice, but you got your fat overpriced payday once. You came again to bend me over as a monopoly, I dont think so. Take your fair price, and go give your HGH players the money they need so you can fill your parks, and charge $10 for a beer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Keep it up and you will become a moderator....LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
-slang adjective 3. term of endearment for one's long-time female spouse; see also -contraction "ol'lady" or "old lady" (ok, so I just made that up; ya nailed me socal)Quote:
Originally Posted by socalrunningfool
hmmm . . . red cape . . . cry of ole . . . now that could spice things up a bit!
Ya know what? You're right. This time it will be on our terms or not al all . . the damn games are streaming across mobile devices all over the place . . baseball has diluted their own distribution franchiseQuote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
The ballparks have empty seats all over the place . . even the Yankees can't sell seats behind home plate and the Mets owners (Wilpons) lost $700mm in the Maddoff Ponzi scheme . . .
Mel has the leverage this time . . . he should tell Bud Selig that we will consider putting the games on Sirius as a courtesy but we will have to work a much better deal on the XM side . .
Tyler . . adding to your earnings preview on the main page . . could you please discuss the specific impact on E.P.S. due to the "employee incentive" options that were exercised during Q2 . . should be fairly straight-forward math as we have all of the filings . .
It is my understanding that options are expensed in the Income Statement in the Quarter during which they were exercised . .
Thanks
ps. need to amend the Friday thread title to include "weekend" and move up the thread so that it doesn't fall-off the main page highlight menu
I think in negotiations timing is everything. Baseball has an image problem. The economy is magifying it. They need money. SiriusXM doesnt NEED baseball on Sirius, they WANT it. So they offered them a fair price. Baseball said no. Now in the MIDDLE OF THE SEASON Selig is meeting with Mel. Mel was desperate to get baseball for next season, he would be holding it right to the wire, playing chicken with baseball. This timing must mean baseball changed there minds about something. SiriusXM is worried about Stern right now, and the iphone app, not adding baseball. Dont get me wrong, i think its a high priority, but the timing of this meeting doesnt smell bad for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
yes . . I think you have "sniffed" this one out correctly . . you're right, middle-of-season meeting doesn't make sense unless baseball has decided to come down off their high-horse
now Mel won't have to hold-his-nose when he signs the deal
announcement of new deal at CC could have a nice fragrant aroma for investors