I'd agree with the high numbers if I didn't feel that there were some things done to keep "subscribers". I just feel like they want to keep it "believable" yet positive to get them through this quarter.
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I'd agree with the high numbers if I didn't feel that there were some things done to keep "subscribers". I just feel like they want to keep it "believable" yet positive to get them through this quarter.
The title of this thread is biased, and clearly reveals the "diction" of Charles worldview on this stock.
We add 60k subs this quarter. Why could you name the thread... Estimate on sub loss/additions? See, its just as long.
What? you are not allowed to stir up discontent over at the other site for fear of a strike so you come over here to do it? :-) Nobody else took offense since we all know Charles.
LOL.....I do not think it was a bias, as much as the opinion that a negative sub number is a foregone conclusion. I do see you are thinking they will add. I would love to see that happen, but I don't think it will.Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
They would have to torture ARPU to make that happen in my opinion. There is a little wiggle room in ARPU to keep people on as subscribers, but not that much.
Remeber, both Sirius and XM went through federal investigations on how they count subs, as well as their customer retention methods. I do not think they want to go down that path again.
Ive never stopped posting here. I post where I can offer anything or learn. As I can still learn from this site, I will enjoy it. If I feel I cant offer anything, then I wont post.Quote:
Originally Posted by otone
The title of the thread reveals how Charles has felt about this STOCK for months. Hes been wrong for months, and he will keep being wrong for many more months. I have nothing against Charles, in in fact if you read my posts, you will know that I havent taken sides. Ive defended this sites position on the PM point, I even ripped Rick for it. Move on ,this topic on this thread has nothing to do with your comments. I even called out Newman for making sure the other site" was working" before moving on. I dont hold my punches, I could care less what "site" is involved or the person.
My reasons for my take...
1. XM lost a ton of subs in Q4 for reasons that are not "continuous".
2. Car sales picked up in March, near the end.
3. Apps got a bit of attention this quarter.
4. Deeper penetration in autos vs. last quarter.
5. Sirius has been know to "forget" to turn off radios when they cancelled.
6. BK issue. People may have been waiting to see if they were even going to be around come March.
Im not just "hoping", I actually have reasons.
I know I said I hadn't guessed in awhile and wasn't likely going to -- but I think it needs to be said too... I'm going with a loss of 300k~385K.
Total educated guess.
Auto sales were down 37% YTD. Sirius/XM had combined for 1.5MM OEM gross in Q1 last year... a 37% cut to that would be 900K. Add in lowered YoY retail additions and take out 2.85% monthly churn on 19MM subs... spells an ugly quarter. Max loss of 385K, best case scenario (from increased auto penatration) 300K.
Expenses will be way down though, too. That will be the selling point on the quarters' numbers. The silver lining, so to speak.
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Sirius should not even report subs at all and just report higher revenue and lower expenses.
You can't even count subs like you used to and make apple to apple comparisons. Until their are a few quarters under their belt for the Best of and Mirge radio being available, it is hard to gauge progress.
Is a Sirius sub with best of XM 1 sub or 1.5 ?
If you pay 19.99 for the Mirge radio and both services, are you considered 1 or 2 subs ?
This needs to be explained because higher ARPU is cutting into sub#'s since someone with a Sirius and an XM sub, now may have canceled 1 of them, signed up for best of and also signed up for 2.99 internet.
They would be paying about $20 for 1 sub as opposed to $26 for 2 subs combined.
thx for your opinion homer, always good when some1 includes their own math with their conclusion. bravo. i agree as well sxminvestor cause i did the same i cancled my sirius ub for an xm sub heh.
I say we lose 75k subs, maintain ABOVE forecasted profit to keep us well on pace to crush $300 million and the pps hits. 65!!!
A man can dream....
Cheers,
-Whynot
naw man u aint dreaming, your seeing the future :o
To be fair here, XM took it in the rear from OEM sales during Q4 -- while Sirius sucked slightly less at retail during Q4. The combination hurt XM.Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
Overall NET additions were 128K positive for Sirius and 45K negative for XM during Q4 (combined is the 83K NET additions reported by the company)
The NET additions were split with XM only adding 55K OEM subs during the quarter, while Sirius added 163K during the quarter. That is not normal for XM and indicative of the economy and the tanking of the auto industry. XM made their bed with the auto OEM's and paid for it during Q4.
At RETAIL, XM lost 99K while Sirius lost 32K during the quarter. Both sucked... it's just that Sirius sucked less.
That's what happens when you don't market the product, IMHO. Then combine in the merger process and rumors of bankruptcy and all those other things.
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Have I really been wrong for months? For months I have said and only said that I am NOT LONG this stock with the current state of this company. I never once said there wasn't money to be made day trading this stock.Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
I am not biased, and this has nothing to do with how I feel about this stock. I honestly didn't think for a second that anyone thought the numbers would be positive. I can go change the title right now. The only reason I didn't say that there would be a 400k loss is because I assume they will hide 100k with creative number counting. If I am wrong, so be it but, honestly, I don't think positive subs are possible.
UNLESS there is very creative counting as you pointed out
Quote:
5. Sirius has been know to "forget" to turn off radios when they cancelled.
Well said. I believe you. I see your point. Interesting though that a foregone conclusion can affect what you type without even thinking about it. I agree we could lose subs. In fact, we should EXPECT to lose subs. I just dont think we will. For all the reasons Ive stated. Is that wishy washy? Lets just say I wouldnt be surprised if we lose subs, but no where near the estimates Im hearing. Heres my range of probablity...Quote:
Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz
Loss of 100k to a gain of no more than 80K. Im a bit optomistic it appears.
Rel,revenue wise you are correct,in 4Q we had 500k sign up for best of,expect to double that to 1mil or more,plus people like me signed up for 3years to get discount on Best of and on-line free,it is like adding 2 net subs rev wise...now do the math and you get neg 300k to 400k subs for 1Q but you get 1mill net positive subs in Rev..and right now it is all about profit,period!!!!! nothing else....Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
Charles, so "creative number counting" will hide 100K subscribers, but "very creative number counting" will hide 400K+ subscribers? :)
I think if you take Homer's worst case numbers, Balance that with possibilites that Rel presents and throw in a little "charity" for some subscribers having to make a fiscal decision and I still think we are around 0, but probably slightly negative since everyone is expecting extremely negative.
WTFK :)
No, it isnt wish washy, its a good point. One that begs the question, for educated investors, how important is the real number opposed to the wish washy number they will report and how creative are they with that number?Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
You would think that some day they will have to expire those subs they have been forgetting to cancel and if they don't have a big quarter in the near future, there is no where to hide those numbers.
Great point Irish. I also agree that the focus on this CC will not even be Sub counts, as like Charlie is saying its confusing, and not very accurate. Look for some clarity from SiriusXM on these numbers at some point, as a kind of purging of bad data so to speak. The focus will be on revenue(good), and SAC and ARPU. All should show nice improvement over Q4. If thats the focus, this price will do quite well. If the street hammers and hammers them on the sub count... Its up in the air.... But I still think the .30s are gone. Just like when I said the .20s were gone. Etc... etc....Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
Of course this is all my opinion, and I have been wrong before.
Without increases in gross additions, I don't think it is possible to hide a loss of 300K~400K subscribers.Quote:
Originally Posted by otone
The problem is that if you show some charity to some subscribers who may be looking to churn out because of hard times or not sign up for the service after their promo period - it's going to show up in the numbers.
50K-100K could be creatively hidden IMHO, spread out through various areas... but for 400K to be hidden, it's going to show up significantly almost everywhere. Whether via improved churn or increased promo take rate -- or even increases in promo subs -- it's going to show up.
The only way to "hide" significant numbers like that is to have increases in gross additions. But keep in mind that Q1 is traditionally the lightest of all quarters. If Sirius XM shows increased gross numbers in Q1 to numbers that are near this past Q4 -- it's going to raise red flags. So I don't think they'll show increased gross figures.
At 2.85% churn, deactivations are going to be around 1.6MM; so the gross will need to be at least that to avoid a negative number. Improved churn down to 2.6% will only hide 100K subs... but an improvement like that will also be noted by the analysts. Red flag.
And so forth, you get the idea. Hiding that many subs, would not be easy. Maybe 100K, but not more. I think 300K negative is a fair figure and is in my best case scenario.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
Is it possible that they have taken the biggest hits in recent quarters with the Chrysler and Ford 1 year and 6 month trials - meaning that it could be a lighter quarter for those trial periods subsiding ?
Maybe they have pushed some to 2nd quarter where the retail channel can help bail them out more.
I have not a clue where subs will come in, but would think that using the new car sales for first quarter, historical retail for first quarter and an average churn rate, you would get a decent assessment. Has anyone worked all the hard numbers that are available?
Even if the subs come in negative, Malone is involved now and he is not going to allow the stock to get slammed. My prediction is not on net subs, but that the future vision of the company will be "framed" and that will provide the lift. In the interview with the Denver Business Journal, Malone mentioned Ergen twice concerning possible future deals. Not just in passing or as a response to a direct Ergen question, he brought his name up. He may have been telegraphing a little, but not twice. Something is brewing behind the scenes and my hopes is we get a glimpse this week.
And it would be great if the iphone app was unveiled. Maybe wishful thinking.