At what point are we not priced for BK?

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Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz

Is the current price a joke if they have negative subscriber additions in q1 and q2? It is looking more and more like that will be the case. Not to mention, the worst of the OEM numbers are yet to come.

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Mel is way ahead of that game as of today's CC IMHO... Set-up #1: Using the word "terrible." We opined today that Mel could go for some media training but he's also no dummy. He knew exactly what he was doing. We don't always like it cause it fuels MSM and can mess with our beloved SP but these things mudt be done froma company perspective. Set up #2: Get the focus away from sub guidance and on to EBITDA..Perfect move. He already knows subs are going to take a further hit but he knows he can hit EBITDA guidance from other sources (cost cuts, synergies, etc..). So today he set the table and the Street bought it. Most companies are foregoing guidance right now and he followed suit and set the right expectation...we'll see how well it works I guess...

btw...

Off this this thread topic but I'm watching Jon Stewart crank on Jim Cramer right now. He's playing clips of that you-tube video from 2006 of Cramer being an arrogant A-hole...

SiriusBuzz Said:
"I agree BUT if you do not believe the company will succeed or the direction it is heading in, I think it is priced right. This company is far from out of the woods IMHO. Get ready for negative numbers in the Q1 report."
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negative numbers as in what? the name of the game is making money, if Sirius is making money first quarter that means a shit load more than lack of sub growth because of measly car sales, when the iphone app comes out that should help create more subs as well as a better plan to sell retail, ie: wal mart adding satrad and heavy advertising campaign funded by liberty of course :o haha that be nice. I do not think subs will be negative for 09, i think 4th qtr 08 and 1st qtr 09 was the bottom for car sales. charles you are almost worse than siriusowner with your backseat ceo'ing

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

the name of the game is making money, if Sirius is making money first quarter that means a shit load more than lack of sub growth because of measly car sales

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Depending on car sales makes their whole business model flawed... they don't need to nor should they have ever relied on car sales. This is archaic thinking from guys who are "great at radio." Lack of sub growth is very telling about the long term viablility of this company. I don't know why you dont think its important.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

when the iphone app comes out that should help create more subs as well as a better plan to sell retail

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Not if they don't do it correctly. Simply throwing out an iphone application 12 months late is not going to have the same returns it would if it had been released in a more timely manner along with a free trial subscription.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

I do not think subs will be negative for 09, i think 4th qtr 08 and 1st qtr 09 was the bottom for car sales.

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This company, as it stands today, with the direction it has been heading in, WILL finish with negative subs for 09.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

charles you are almost worse than siriusowner with your backseat ceo'ing

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It's not hard to better understand the market at my age then a guy like Mel who is a damn dinosaur. I dont doubt that he is smart, I dont doubt that he knows radio, I DO DOUBT that he has a clue about 2010 and how important change is. This has been made evident by them not having an iPhone app ready within 12 months of the launch of the Apple iPhone app store.

Critisize me all you want, just remember to come back to this thread at the end of 09 if Sirius thinks that status quo is acceptable.

The Buzz is thinking the same way I do. We are both talking about the quarter we are now in, Jan-Mar 2009. It is this quarter, if you recall, that the SAR rate for light auto's went from 11. something mil, almost 12 to 10.5 and falling. That is a little more than 1 million units world wide and we buy most of them. If you look at their falling penetration AND ADD THAT to the loss of 750K units sold or more and them add the increased cancellation rates and fail to convert, you end up with a pretty bad picture for this current quarter.

Now........add to that the BK! Rumors! and the effect that will have for at least the latter part of Feburary and first week of march.......

I think you can see where I am going with this.

I'm not a doom and gloomer. I just don't like the stock right now. I liked it in 2007, lost faith in 2008 and the 2009 story has yet been written.

This was a market pop today, combined with a Apple pop. Every Mac head for miles took a look at SIRI today. Even with all that the bump was not that impressive. I saw some beaten down stocks more than double today for no reason except that they were trashed in previous months.

When this quarter's report comes out, assuming he does not pre-warn, which he could have done today and did not. The stock will be in limbo for a while.

I did not want to ride that out so I sold it. I made money with that money for three days and I cashed out at the close today. I won't trade again till next week sometime.

Most people just kept their mouth shut today and let the rally do what rallies do. But we all know Obama will say something stupid this weekend or someone from his staff will. The market can't take it anymore. It will cancel out this rally and the last three days and then some.

Mr. O is sending out Larry Summer's to calm the fears this weekend on 60 minutes. LOL....That should be a good nap.

There is still not good/bad bank plan.......there is still no actual document amending mark to market or anything else but talk,talk,and commitees, commitees, commitees........

Jimmy Carter II...............

That's what the roadmap says......and that is what I am preparing for. People will not be flooding to the cash register AT SIRI OR ANYWHERE until we get some damned clarity about the future, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

I'm not angry......I just hit the caps button when my hands started shaking.....:rolleyes:



:(

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

SiriusBuzz Said:
"I agree BUT if you do not believe the company will succeed or the direction it is heading in, I think it is priced right. This company is far from out of the woods IMHO. Get ready for negative numbers in the Q1 report."
"

negative numbers as in what? the name of the game is making money, if Sirius is making money first quarter that means a shit load more than lack of sub growth because of measly car sales, when the iphone app comes out that should help create more subs as well as a better plan to sell retail, ie: wal mart adding satrad and heavy advertising campaign funded by liberty of course :o haha that be nice. I do not think subs will be negative for 09, i think 4th qtr 08 and 1st qtr 09 was the bottom for car sales. charles you are almost worse than siriusowner with your backseat ceo'ing

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ie: wal mart adding satrad

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My Walmart was selling SIRI and XM for a couple years.

I can't find the display anymore. I guess they quit....

Doobz

I believe what Mel meant about Circuit City was that those clowns could hardly sell anything during 4th qtr. There BK talk was about as bad as SiriusXM!!!!!!!!!!! Would you have bought anything from Circuit City over the holidays...I wouldn't have! As for the radio fire sale at CC...that started after end of 4th qtr. Should have positive effect for 1st qtr. They gave away alot of radios!!!!!!!!!!!

IMHO

I'm sorry charles but i don't share your pessimism

Give Siri a chance.

It is a .19xx stock...........give it a chance..........

If I worried about my stocks this much that I pay dollars for then this would be an issue. .19 is not my biggest worry.

If you don't own any other stocks, then you are probably clueless, except Tripps. He is a smart investor. We know where he is at and support him.

If you are a SIRI only investor, then take it like it is...........

and don't bitch......

Ahahaha well said Bill!!! :)

aye aye captain bill!