Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

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03-10-2009, 06:42 PM
FoolNHisMoney

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saatradical

I'm curious to know where most of those 333,000 retail subscribers were lost, was it more on the XM side, or Sirius?
I'm sure there was a Merger catharsis that alot of shareholders sold into and out of. A percentage of the loss is probably due to shareholdrs/subscribers who became disgruntled.
Though I can't discount the bad economy and it's effect on the consumer tightening their budget, I think that big of a retail loss is an anomaly that will right itself. Let's face it, we should get some better radios too. Alot of that early retail was low quality crap!
I think the 10K was a good foundation for this re-booted Puppy to further grow into a Big Dog with more attractive potential in all aspects.

No doubt the economy had something to do with the low retail sales, but the major factor driving retail sales down is the increased OEM penetration rate. The more cars there are being sold with satellite radio installed greatly reduces the number of retail sales.
03-10-2009, 06:56 PM
Koop

Confused

Am I missing something?
If this is a 2008 accounting why does the Liberty deal get a mention? Is this just news or are the figures factored into 2008 accounting?

Didn't that deal happen in 2009?
Or does this mean that Mel did this deal in 2008?

Or was this mentioned now to try keep the ship afloat and pacify analysts and the Street?

I would have thought the report would have been only 2008 numbers and the 1Q in 2009 would dazzle everyone with the Liberty infusion.
Koop:cool:
03-10-2009, 07:04 PM
Brandon Matthews

Quote:

Originally Posted by mogami

OK what am I missing? In 2007 there were 4.6 million retail subs. End of 2008 there are 8.9 million retail subs.

In 2007, sirius had 9,238,715 retail subs
In 2008, sirius had 8,905,087 retail subs.
A net loss of 333,628 retail subs. In other words, retail subs are negligible. Anyone that thinks Sirius can add 2 million retail subs is nuts.

In 2007, sirius had 8,033,268 oem subs
In 2008, sirius had 9,995,953 oem subs
A net gain of 1,962,685 oem subs.
03-10-2009, 07:08 PM
mogami

retail

Hi, So 1.6 million more people just had it installed when they bought their car? Since we know car sales are down people are getting it when they buy the car rather then retail after.
03-10-2009, 07:15 PM
Sirius Roadkill

could someone please post the entire WSJ article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1236...googlenews_wsj

Thanks!
03-10-2009, 07:16 PM
mogami

subs

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

In 2007, sirius had 9,238,715 retail subs
In 2008, sirius had 8,905,087 retail subs.
A net loss of 333,628 retail subs. In other words, retail subs are negligible. Anyone that thinks Sirius can add 2 million retail subs is nuts.

In 2007, sirius had 8,033,268 oem subs
In 2008, sirius had 9,995,953 oem subs
A net gain of 1,962,685 oem subs.

So they beat the crap out of your predicted 2 million subs lost right?
03-10-2009, 07:16 PM
Danzo

Hey Rick, I just want to say thanks for distilling some excerpts from the 228 page report, especially the one about the effects of a reverse split. I'm a novice at investing and I understood how a reverse split works, but I knew almost nothing about the larger implications of a reverse spilt. Thank you very much for posting that and your other excerpts in this thread.
03-10-2009, 07:18 PM
Boat

Quite alot of subs canceled there contracts because they didn't like when Sirius took away there favorite XM channels.
03-10-2009, 07:18 PM
sxminvestor

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

In 2007, sirius had 9,238,715 retail subs
In 2008, sirius had 8,905,087 retail subs.
A net loss of 333,628 retail subs. In other words, retail subs are negligible. Anyone that thinks Sirius can add 2 million retail subs is nuts.

In 2007, sirius had 8,033,268 oem subs
In 2008, sirius had 9,995,953 oem subs
A net gain of 1,962,685 oem subs.

Enough with the word negligible.

Sirius did not break out gross vs net. They may have had Gross of 600k & had churn of 933k to net 333k. Don't you understand this concept ?

I agree they have to increase the retail additions in order to stabilize and grow the subs and revenue. And we need OEM's production and penetration rates to increase y/y.

The take rate also dropped a bit, but this was expected to a certain account because of the mix of lower end cars and poor economy.

Your still talking Apples and Oranges and trying to pull smoke and mirrors on everyone with your trying to explain your way out of the 2 million sub loss prediction you stated (your opinion) for 2009.
03-10-2009, 07:19 PM
Sirius Roadkill

COH

So . . if COH at end of Q4 was $380mm then $20mm was added over Q3

Also, adding in $78mm leftover from the initial Malone infusion . . . COH today should be somewhere around $460mm
03-10-2009, 07:19 PM
Brandon Matthews

Quote:

Originally Posted by mogami

So they beat the crap out of your predicted 2 million subs lost right?

WROOONG AGAIN! My prediction is for 2009, not 2008. I was looking forward, not back. I'm sorry to say it, but I was right...
03-10-2009, 07:21 PM
mogami

2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

WROOONG AGAIN! My prediction is for 2009, not 2008. I was looking forward, not back. I'm sorry to say it, but I was right...

so you think they will finish 2009 with 17 million subs? Just want to make sure I understand what your saying.
03-10-2009, 07:23 PM
Koop

This from Mel.

"In the fourth quarter 2008, the company's first full quarter of combined operations, SIRIUS XM made remarkable financial progress," said Mel Karmazin, CEO of SIRIUS. "For the first time in company history, we reached positive pro forma adjusted income from operations of $32 million, as compared with a loss of $224 million one year ago. Fourth quarter 2008 revenue of $644 million grew 16% over the year ago quarter while total cash operating expenses declined by 22%, a clear demonstration of our focus on improving profitability. Despite challenges in the overall economy and in the auto sector, we look forward to continuing to deliver on the synergies of the merger. We are also very pleased to report that we have closed the second and final phase of the previously announced investment by Liberty Media Corporation. These transactions resolve the uncertainty surrounding the company's and its subsidiaries' debt maturing in 2009."

from PR Newswire 7:12 PM
03-10-2009, 07:23 PM
Brandon Matthews

Quote:

Originally Posted by sxminvestor

Enough with the word negligible.

Sirius did not break out gross vs net. They may have had Gross of 600k & had churn of 933k to net 333k. Don't you understand this concept ?

I agree they have to increase the retail additions in order to stabilize and grow the subs and revenue. And we need OEM's production and penetration rates to increase y/y.

The take rate also dropped a bit, but this was expected to a certain account because of the mix of lower end cars and poor economy.

Your still talking Apples and Oranges and trying to pull smoke and mirrors on everyone with your trying to explain your way out of the 2 million sub loss prediction you stated (your opinion) for 2009.

Mel had better be preparing the speech of his life. This company is heading in the wrong direction. This report was awful. If nothing changes, it may as well just give up. The basher journalists are going to have a field day with it. I'm so disgusted, I won't write about it.
03-10-2009, 07:23 PM
sxminvestor

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill

COH

So . . if COH at end of Q4 was $380mm then $20mm was added over Q3

Also, adding in $78mm leftover from the initial Malone infusion . . . COH today should be somewhere around $460mm

They have alot of 1 time charges, refinancing charges, etc in 1st Q - another ugly one where subs may have barely grown. Hope the push on advertising on the internet has helped spur retail a bit.

2nd Q should be back to business and growth again !
03-10-2009, 07:24 PM
sxminvestor

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

Mel had better be preparing the speech of his life. This company is heading in the wrong direction. This report was awful. If nothing changes, it may as well just give up. The basher journalists are going to have a field day with it. I'm so disgusted, I won't write about it.

I do agree it wasn't good.

They need to start growing again.
03-10-2009, 07:27 PM
Koop

Also...
SIRIUS XM plans to hold a conference call on Thursday, March 12, 2009 at 8:00 am ET to discuss these results. Investors and the press can listen to the conference call via the company's website, www.sirius.com, and on its satellite radio service by tuning to SIRIUS channel 126 or XM channel 90.
03-10-2009, 07:29 PM
Sirius Roadkill

I saw Greg Maffei on with Maria Bartiromo today on Closing Bell ... he said he envisions (and I'm paraphrasing here) some portion of the nonpremium content being offered for free . . .

It was an interesting interview and I thought it odd that he mentioned 19mm subs . . that was before I knew the Q was released.

He indicated continued subscriber growth even with 9-10mm new auto sales . .
03-10-2009, 07:30 PM
Koop

Hell... I was stoked that there was no "going concern" statement. At least after a 15 minute quick scan.
03-10-2009, 07:34 PM
Sirius Roadkill

btw . . . Maffei said that Liberty would work with management to help them extend the maturities of the May 2010 debt ($250mm)

I have to admit that this guy is a better speaker than Mel and didn't use the word "sucks" even once . . . had a nice even temperament.

In fact, Mel was never once mentioned during the interview . . . this could be Mel's swan song; he may be a great cost-cutter but he is way-way behind the tech curve . . . jmo

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