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to me as long as their is no delisting worries there will not be an rs, i think they can get over a dollar with this current float and hold, thsen its a matter of building that fcf for 3 years and then they can start to buy back stock. If they were to do a r/s i dont see why anything over 10:1 would be needed and honestly a 5:1 would be enough to reduce the float. Time will tell.
wirestripper the att servicde sucks, 20 channels for 10 bucks a month>? no satrad lover is going to bother with that. The apple one will be way diff as you will be able to get stern and everything else for 2.99 a month. I think the iphone app will make a huge impact.
They cannot do a share buyback. There are convenants in some of the debt issues that prevent share buybacks before repurchasing the debt.Quote:
Originally Posted by mogami
Trppin... what do you believe is an appropriate EV for this company? Keep in mind that the highest combined EV for these companies ever was about $18BB. And that was when there was tremendous growth in both companies, coupled with a booming economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
The current EV is approximately $3.88BB. Do you believe it will ever get to $18BB again some day? How soon? Well if you think that it can reach that level someday -- then that would be a PPS of ONLY $2.36.
If it takes a couple years to reach that level of EV someday... then that is going to be a LONG and SLOW climb from $0.14 to just $2.36. All the while the stock will continue to be non-marginable and most major institutions won't be able to touch it.
That is the problem with such a high fully-diluted sharecount.
IMHO, an EV near $10BB may be doable in the next 12 months, provided the economy turns around, along with the auto OEM's. That's a PPS of just $1.03, with this sharecount.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paratrooper_Rick
I have heard of funds buying shares and turning them in to the company for a set price down the road.
This would take a boat load of shares off the market, by someone else besides the company.
I think this would be possible!
The difference is it is more then 20 channels.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wirestripper
They could be looking at expanding their internet site to offer all current stations and more.
There is no bandwidth limitation on internet!
They need to spend every extra dollar on marketing and improving software, and intergrating the two companies, etc....Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
Or buy back debt. If they bought back one share, Id be LIVIDLY ANGRY. Dumb idea to buy back shares. Its not their "direction" anyway. If anythign they will look to sell MORE SHARES. LOL:eek:
I agree. It would be a disaster if they do it too soon. They need to do it as a "last resort".Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
assuming the numbers hold up and we can show fcf i think with time it can get over a dollar and probably float around the .75-1.50 range. Wont be over night but hopefully by end of year we could break through a dollar and manage to hold close enough to it so that we either stay above or break through a dollar now and then and possibly float from .75-1.50, assuming bk stays of the way and siri continues to trim costs and increase revenue. I think we could get above 18 million because both of these companies are stronger together then they were separate. How soon will that happen? not this year i don't think. What we do need to happen this year is at least get an ev of 10-11 billion and then we can avoid delisting and buy the time needed to build cash and be ready to buyback stock when debt is out of the way. this could take 3 years or it could take 10, but that is better than a r/s that will make it close to impossible for longs which includes mel to make their money back unless for a split second giant speculative bubble. I'm not worried about big institutions not being able buy siri, obviously we still have some who are buying even at this price, and i don't think we need them. What siri needs is to become a fcf company, focus on that, as long as the stock can avoid delisting then they can ignore the stock price focus on reigning in costs and increasing revenue.
another thing the 18 billion ev was when both companies were in the red yeah they were growing big time but they werent making money. Assuming we become a producer of cash rather than a user of cash that should change the story big time.
so nobodies got a counter argument here? lol
Apparently not - when I started this post I had no idea it would go this long -Quote:
Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
I think the bottom line I'm seeing from all of the posts today is..... (wait for it..)
We all have a dozen or so theories...... about what will happen to SIRI in the coming months.... R/S, BB, Monday, CC on the 17th, SP in a year.....
At least we are past BK and free to relax and theorize a bit... it's kinda nice....
>>Anything before that will be a disaster and I will sell.<<Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
Right on...and so will a boatload of others..Mel knows this. So no reverse until about Oct or I think Nov. Rev is a certainty though just based on his current authority expires in Dec. Plus it makes sense to get the SP higher to create a new perception of the company. So that's a done deal. But not in a smoke and mirrors way as some company's try to do (which then brings the short sharks out immediately on the other side). As Newman says though, timing will be critical and should wait until company has a few more cylinders firing to ensure positive environment for rev. Only trouble is for us, they will have to announce this action presumably at least 60 days before execution. So sometime in August or right after Labor Day, it's announced. I would advise all to keep an eye on your investments at that time. I will probably leave 1/3 in and take 2/3 out. In the interim we will have plenty of opps to be in and out a few different times if desired. I think based on actual valuation, most here believe this SP is worth about a buck (and I agree). I also think adding in the spec component into the equation could wind up driving the SP even a little higher with the right positive conditions (toward merger revalue territory). But when rev is announced, she will crash kind of hard (de rigeur). By rev time probably looking at .40 - .60. IMHO...
The problem I have with this is...Quote:
Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos
Karmazin's cost basis is $3.90. For him to "make his money back", Sirius XM will have to go up 2,685%.
If there are 6.36BB fully diluted shares, then the price will have to go from $0.14 to $3.90 for him to breakeven; but if they did a 1:10 split, then they will need to go from $1.40 to $39.00... that's still a 2,685% increase.
IMHO, the stock has just as much a chance of going from $1.40 to $39.00, as it does from $0.14 to $3.90... but even that is remote, given the size of the EV that you're talking about at that point. A $24BB EV on a company is a huge company -- and it had better be profitable.
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homer i dont think it will go that high with the current float, im hoping after 3 years the company will be profitable and have its debt paid and then they can start buying back stock. That is when we can break out over mels avg. possibly 5 years or so. as i said .75-1.50 current float, hold that range while we build up cash and pay down debt, then start buying back stock. THEN we can imagine prices over 3 dollars or so.
Hi, Sirius is not going to buy back stock. They still have 3 billion+ in debt. They will be paying off debt at least till 2014. Long before then they will execute the R/S removing the need to ever buy back stock.
So the real question is will they ever be debt free and if so what will they do with their profits?
will see, i think you give them serious time to grow their cash they can pay debt off by 2012, if they are thinking of doing an rs im sure they will bring it up on the 17th. Its not a matter of being debt free its just a matter of having it manageable.
not as brainy as most on here, but it seems to me that as long as siri maintains or improves FCF (especially in this environment) coupled with debt no longer a major holdback (for now), upward movement in the ps will happen without having to conduct a r/s near term....of course two days ago i thought otherwise.....the 17th should give everyone a better idea of what to expect if and only if mel gives clear guidance to sh's the [B]plan[B]going forward....till then i plan to enjoy the ride for a brief moment.....just my 2cents worth...be nice even us idiots have feelings:):googley:
Quick question,
To me it seems that the more "savvy" investors here are almost "pushing" for an R/S or at least think it is necessary.
Obviously I am against an R/S and I think it is not needed. This stock IMO has never really traded on fundamentals, for the most part it has been pure speculation. IMO positive speculation will pick up and ramp the price up again. At least to levels that SIRI won't have to worry about delisting and beyond.
I understand everything you guys have said about how the float needs to be reduced, help stave off manipulation, increase buying by funds etc...
Basically my question is, do you guys see the R/S as a benefit to you as a shareholder, and could you help me understand how it could benefit me directly if at all? To me SIRI can still have the price turned around on it's own, I see the R/S as nothing but negative. I own 90,000 shares and I am more than happy to see this thing go to 2 or 3 dollars in the next 1-3 years! If the R/S happens I own significantly less shares "limiting future earning potential" and run the risk of this stock being beaten back down. I will sell if the R/S happens and rethink my position.
If anyone could help me understand how this could benefit me direcrtly as a shareholder I would be grateful!
Now I will stop posting about the R/S because really only time will tell.
Sincerely Unsophisticated SIRI investor :p
IMHO with this dilution and amount of shares it is too easy for MM's(market movers) to artificially keep the stock price low.the partial reason i beleive is because most experienced investors buy or sell with limit orders,and with todays economy and the average or below average investor's 401 K's and IRA's depleted,there are hardly anymore Market orders...it is the market orders that drive up the price appreciatively MHO...this is why we need the uptick rule back in play..A MUST HAVE...but i personally am not in favor of a R/S at all or if we have to do it,not until a profit and cost certainty are forcasted with reasonably assured market conditions,and definitely not until it gets to at least .60 with a 1-10 R/S only...hope this helps.. Basically look at it as you are paying at least $1.45 for every share you buy from now on with todays price at .145..also every share you bought previous times ten..it's all about getting a 1-10 bagger. With R/S it is removed somewhat...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hopeful
not an expert just my opinion..