19.5 at most.
19.9 (hope 20) by the end of 1st Q, but ARPU should be up because of the Best of and 1st Q Margins up further because of rate increase.
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19.5 at most.
19.9 (hope 20) by the end of 1st Q, but ARPU should be up because of the Best of and 1st Q Margins up further because of rate increase.
I'll say it again guys while I think the high numbers are not there. I also dont think the really low ones are ether. Ask yourselves would you increase the cost of getting the product if you already had trouble keeping the ones you had or could not get new ones. Just something to think about.
I'm guessing 19,820,000
Who wants to bet on how high the churn will be? I think this will be the worst quarter yet.
i dont wanna know what the churn is.:(Quote:
Originally Posted by clueless
19.3 million with terrible churn.
btw has anyone heard about a date for 4th. quarter cc? Did I miss it? It was on Feb. 26 last year.
thanks
Yup. Too many jobs have been lost to not have a large number of cancellations. If I lost my income I'd have to cancel some of my subs. Food, Mortgage, Sirius, in that order.
I will throw out a churn number... 1.9. It was 1.7 last quarter and the quarter before that. 0.2 increase is significant.
So my predictions are 19.35 subs, with a churn of 1.9%.
Newman that is possible but I dont think 1.9 is that bad they have had 1.8 before. Now of course the 1st quarter is for the most part going to be tuff on churn, it always has been because of the 4th quarter adds are higher then most other quarters and end of subscription comes in the 1st quarter.
I will toss this out as another option that while churn stays the same ARPU gos down. Due to the deals they may be giving to keep people.
Actually john, I think ARPU goes UP, and SAC drops SIGNIFICANTLY because of OEMs selling less and thus getting less revshare.
I could see SAC at $54 (It was $65 I think last quarter?) and ARPU up to $10.97 (I think it was $10.55 last quarter).
You are correct in the fact that the Q1 numbers will look UGLY. You are right that Churn of 1.9 is not THAT bad, but for Q4, it would be a significant increase... and that number will go higher in Q1.
I think that churn will go down as people locked in savings by signing up for a year or more. 1.5 also for Q1
Newman, ARPU for the quarter was 10.47 and SAC was 74. I just dont want you to be to disappointed if they dont get the numbers you think because your original ones were to high or to low.
How will Best of Both figure in the mix for new subscribers in the 4Q? Wouldn't that push ARPU up? With the OEM's falling of the cliff in December, end of November, that should also bring the SAC Down... I'm going with 19.15 for subs, churn at 1.84 (programming upset some people who were just hanging on anyways), and an ARPU in line with Newman because GM did so bad I figure it would help XM's numbers and Best of Both will increase ARPU for new adds if its in the number.
Rather than just ARPU - Aver. Revenue Per User, I would like to know the revenue per NEW user as opposed to old or current users like myself.Quote:
Originally Posted by cos1000
For example, I have 2 lifetime subs. One is 4 yrs old, the other 2yrs old. So they are getting NO revenue from me. Yet I still affect ARPU numbers.
I'll predict a flat or slight rise (up to 50K) in subs and only a slight rise in churn. I think X-mas, Circuit City closeouts will offset the churn but I wouldn't be surprised to see the churn take off next few quarters, offseting any gains in subs and maybe then some. The only thing that'll save share price this year will be synergies from merger, new apps, Malone and settling financing issues. An increase in market liquidity couldn't hurt either.
Well, XM Radio got one more today... I re-activated one of my radios today...No, I did not add any SIRI programing.
I think that during the shareholder meeting, Mel was pretty convinced that SiriusXM would have 19.1M subs end of 4th qtr. That meeting was held on the 18th of Dec. I am pretty sure that he get ongoing updates to subs/churn etc. There is no way we end up with under 19.1M subs. I believe that with the Christmas retail discounts that were somewhat advertised, we will end up with closer to 19.6M subs IMHO. Or as Howard would do, round up to 20M as he mentioned on his show a few weeks back. I know that he could have added some of the Jan #'s to get to 20M. I'll take 19.6
I stick by my ARPU of 10.97 for the quarter. Wow, was SAC that high? I still think that it drops like a rock. I might have been close with my 54, but since my initial numbers were off, I'll bump that slightly up to 60.Quote:
Originally Posted by john
Subscribers: 19.35 million
ARPU: 10.97
SAC: 60
Churn: 1.7
Oh, and FCF positive by 135 million thanks to Best of and Lifetime Subs, which they will report AMAZING numbers.
Remember, you heard it here first. ;)
Newman
Cash flow positive $135M. IMHO alittle low. Due to Subs being closer to 19.5-19.6M Either way, I like the way it sounds...cash flow positive...cash flow positive...you get the point!
I'm a little more conservative than some of you guys. I just don't see how we can achieve 19.5 mil with the dismal auto sales... a little less than 2.5 mil new cars sold. In Q3 we churned out over 1.5 million subscribers... so it's gonna take a monster retail quarter to get us over the hump. I'm gonna say we grow by a modest 200k subs to put us right 19.1. Frankly in this economy ANY growth will be considered positive IMO. I DO think we'll show growth as someone from Liberty mentioned they were impressed with Sirius's growth given the slow economy... and they must have been privy to the latest info.
I'm guessing FCF of about $85mil to put us well over 400mil COH. At least until the NFL and MLB bills come due.
That's my conservative guess, but I'm hoping that we hit Newman's numbers!