How much should we trust Mel Karmazin ?

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Originally Posted by Hopeful

Just curious,

If Mel comes through tomorrow and saves our asses from BK are you guys still going to be hating on him???

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It should have never gotten to this. mel & co have run this company into the ground and now need a WHITE KNIGHT.

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Originally Posted by nisvan

if you'll recall, when karmazan came on board, xm had more
subscribers, and a higher market cap

sirius wooed talent, increased its rate of subscriber acquisition,
and eventually surpassed xm's subscriber base

this all took money, lots of money

much of it had to be borrowed; all the while running a company that was showing no net profit; Not Easy To Do.

also - who could have foreseen how long it would take the fcc to approve the merger

who could have foreseen that the merger would even be approved

then there was that problem with transmitting into other vehicles

and that little problem with minority companies wanting a big chunk of the spectrum

and then after merging, discovering XM had this little debt problem

and yet all the while keeping an affable, optimistic Can Do countenance, while the world's falling apart around you (yes, think Kipling)

so yeah, give the guy a break. i'm sorry your stock price hasn't been doing as well as you'd like, but on the other hand, it's amazing the company is still here at all, not due to ineptness; but due to 1500 FM stations wanting you dead and gone

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Everything you just listed was him doing his job and without doing other new media savvy things and focusing on content (the other half of his job) it will have all been for naught.

There were plenty of relatively cheap and easy things that could have been done along the way in conjunction with those things to put Sirius XM well past the 30 million subscriber mark. The guys at Nicemac are good at what they do but they were just a couple of guys who met and put their heads together and in a couple of months they accomplished more then Sirius did in years.

All of that aside... it still does not seem evident to me that he is ready to take the company in the right direction NOW. Forget last year, or even last week, something tells me they will not be ready to head in the right direction tomorrow.

i for one am a believer in mel, i think he is the perfect fit for sirius, some people are impossible to please. I think he has dealt with some seriously difficult situation's few ceo's will ever see, and he has managed so far to survive them when other's might not of. Is he perfect? no

I think he may have done a good job doing what it is he does but, I don't think he is surrounding himself with people who are younger and "get technology." If that is his one and only one flaw, it will still be tragic enough to ruin this company.

i think will be alright with the iphone release followed by other release's for other mobile platform's, blackberry, etc.......

I don't mean to get into a pissing match here, but there are a couple factual errors with this post that need correcting...

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Originally Posted by nisvan

if you'll recall, when karmazan came on board, xm had more subscribers, and a higher market cap

sirius wooed talent, increased its rate of subscriber acquisition, and eventually surpassed xm's subscriber base

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To be accurate, Sirius never "surpassed XM's subscriber base". They did surpass the quarterly subscriber addition rate for a couple years, however it never surpassed the XM base. In fact, as of the end of Q3 last year -- XM still has 870K more subscribers than Sirius. And in that same quarter, XM added 243K NET subs, while Sirius added 100K NET subs.

I'll also add that yes, Sirius added some 2 million subs in a short period of time when Stern signed up to go there -- but at the same time, it is almost always overlooked that XM still managed to add an additional 1.5+ million subs as well.

But this is just nitpicking. It was solid growth, but it should also be noted that XM too grew very quickly at the same time... just not as much.

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Originally Posted by nisvan

and then after merging, discovering XM had this little debt problem

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XM had a "debt problem"? Seems to me that it is the Sirius debt that is coming close to being defaulted on... not the XM debt due in December. Again, I point out -- prior to the merger, XM had more cash on hand with similiar amounts of bonds due, however at a much later date. Sirius had $300MM due in Feb09, while XM had $400MM due in Dec09. (The XM bank loans had always been planned to be extended). So when you look at it this way... where's the problem?

I'll tell you where it is, if there is any problem... it is because the Dec09 bonds are senior secured bonds. Bonds that Ergen bought up half of to threaten the company with; meanwhile the bulk of the others used their power to pursade the company to make various moves. But that is normal. I don't see that as a "problem".

If you're saying the "problem" is because XM has more debt than Sirius -- well it should be noted why, which I've explained numerous times. It doesn't mean that XM should be worth less than Sirius. That is just talk from people who really haven't researched these companies too deeply.

Enough said, I'm not looking to argue -- just wanted to correct a couple things that jumped out at me.



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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

i think will be alright with the iphone release followed by other release's for other mobile platform's, blackberry, etc.......

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No thanks to Mel.

I am not convinced that a $12.99 app with no free trial of Sirius XM is going to increase subs. If Sirius XM were to release their own app for free and offer a free 1 month trial with the download... that would be another story (read: netflix on xbox).

I had enough for one night guys....Im gonna call it a night.....
Well the time has come.....I will be up brite and early....
What ever happens, happens...I feel good... What ever plans you all have and what ever differences we have had its time to put it aside and wish GOOD LUCK to ALL!:cool:

i think it will increase sub's, being able to listen to a ballgame on your phone wherever ur at will be a must have for sports fans. I think its going to spread like wild fire.

I appreciate your opinion but, I tend to agree with Buzz. They will get one new subscriber for every 10 that they would have if they had released a free app with a free trial (which is the key). You can disagree but, this kind of stuff is proven to work, take a gander at netflix share price and their Q4 subs.

So what's Mel up to? He owns 5.5 million shares, has paid
$21,000,000 for his shares and they are worth $550,000.
The company has $3.5 billion of debt. His strong statements
don't really mean much in this financial market. Its
about survival.

Charlie Egan purchased $150 million in bonds. Looks like
he has a bigger stake in the company at this point in time.

I'd bet if you gave Mel $10,000,000, he'd recommend that
SiriusXM be sold to Echo Star. Call it a golden parachute.

The remains of the company have to go through BK. It
made bad contracts for personalities and sports. It reached
for the brass ring and only got a bunch of bull snot.

And did I mention that 98% of SirusXm content is on my
iPhone?

ton's of services get started without free trial's, sirius has been around long enough their shouldnt be a need for a free trial. I think just a few people try it on their iphone's and get into the service it will spread like wildfire. Not to mention the extra 2.99 that current subscriber's will be willing to pay to hear the service on their iphone, i think otherwise not that many people would pay the extra fee. I think it will start penetrating those who listen to music on their iphone but would like an even better experience with live content. The ability to have the sports package on your phone wherever you are is huge, honestly im more excited about having siri on my cellphone than in my car. Of course siri isnt taking advantage of this the way they should have, but it will still have a beneficial impact, you guys act like it will have no impact at all.

anybody have mels cost average handy?

5 something bucks i believe, it aint pretty.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

Of course siri isnt taking advantage of this the way they should have, but it will still have a beneficial impact, you guys act like it will have no impact at all.

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It will have an impact but that impact will be minimal. It will be from diehards who are already subscribers who will get more value out of the service as apposed to new subscriptions. I signed up for netflix last month because it was on my xbox for free but also because it was a two week free trial. This is silly to argue about... Sirius didnt even make the app and it wouldnt cost them a thing (relatively) to give the service away for a few weeks. Its a no brainer.

I have watched friends and family try games, ringtones, and applications on their phone for no other reason then the fact that it was free or free to try. I have also heard things like "1.99 for bowling... screw that." Like I said, it will help but it will not bolster subscriptions like others think it will. You can hate all you want... just make sure you come back to the forums to say "wow you were right."

BTW, they are seven months late getting this application out so, don't forget the lost opportunity. Pandora and Slacker are top 10 applications for the iPhone now. Not only do you have to convince people to subscribe but you also have to convince them that your service is better then the FREE applications they have been using for MONTHS. BTW, Sirius wont do that convincing because they arent even resposible for the app.

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Originally Posted by m4svt

anybody have mels cost average handy?

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3.82 rounded according to birkoff's numbers.

we'll see charles, we'll see.

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Originally Posted by Phil

3.82 rounded according to birkoff's numbers.

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doh, i shoulda did the math. thx tho.

he's got a long way to breakeven, i hope we see 3 bux again.

I can think of 81k reasons for the stock to reach $3 again!!!!! Now that would be an awesome thing!!! In due time!!!

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Originally Posted by just sirius

I can think of 81k reasons for the stock to reach $3 again!!!!! Now that would be an awesome thing!!! In due time!!!

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:cool: hope you're right.