Printable View
Yeah, it's not looking good eh???
Wouldn't Malone have had some foresight about the Q4/Annual report before getting involved with SIRI?
Malone's/Liberty conference call stated some implications that they had a look at the Q4/Annual, saying things like they like the business model and the company is growing, they see future potential and something about liking the numbers.
Negative impacts of auto sales and the economy were already discussed at the December shareholder meeting. All of the forecasts were cut at that time. To me this is just repeating that information especially in the wording "results of operations for 2008 compared to 2007."
Correct me if Im wrong but the expectations were always to be less than 2007. This language is just clearing up what was already said...maybe only in official document form this time?
And... the reason for Attachment 1 is the question right above it "Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof? "
Jesus! Sounds to me like I better put a life vest on...
Brandon, I'm not convinced we are going to lose subscribers overall for Q4. Auto sales for the quarter was at 10.3 million SAAR, which at the 50% penetration rate (it should actually be a little higher for this Q IMO) that makes about 1.4 million adds from auto sales.
From there, retail sales will ultimately determine if we add or lose overall subs. Assuming self-pay churn stays relatively stable at 1.7% I estimate we would need to see only 275,000 gross retail sales minimum to maintain 18.9 million subs that we had after Q3. Anything more would be net adds (I figure 475,000 to meet the guidance of 200,000 net adds overall). We had something like 211,000 net retail adds in Q407, which is less than half of the pro forma net retail adds we had in Q406. I estimated about 200,000 gross retail sales in Q308 (-149,416 net), so given that Q4 is a strong retail period I think we should be safe to see at least 275,000 gross retail sales. John is a lot more optimistic, thinking 1 million retail sales. I sure hope he's right!
asm, by the way this was what was removed from the SA article when they wiped all of my posts. Follow the link to the SEC and read the whole thing..... it doesn't read any better.... I am amazed that no one has published this anywhere so far..... When I originally said on Friday that with no news from the company by the end of the day, that meant an extension would be filed.... I thought then as I do now.... It not good....
[quote=asm610;16340]This can't be the truth
Management has not yet completed its evaluation as to whether substantial doubt exists relative to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time. A significant element of that evaluation relates to uncertainties associated with funding of amounts stipulated in the aforementioned Investment Agreements. These uncertainties may not be resolved by the time the Company files its Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In the event such uncertainties remain unresolved, management anticipates that KPMG LLP’s auditors’ report relative to the Company’s 2008 consolidated financial statements will contain an explanatory paragraph indicating substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
Continuing on....
"Management has not yet completed its evaluation as to whether substantial doubt exists relative to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time. "
Then it goes on to explain why this is important because "if not cured or waived prior to the expiration of the applicable grace period, would result in an event of default "
A couple of interesting things here.Quote:
Originally Posted by asm610
1. This is further cover for their BK scare, and to circumvent the need for stockholder approval. A good quarter and good outlook, and good COH might send lawsuits at them. They dont need to take a goodwill charge, if they do, we know their angle immediately. They are trying to look as weak as possible.
2. This is "needed information" to keep investors away until they report, so the price remains low. A huge stock price run up right now doesnt make them look weak, and a bk necessary. Plus the director buy ins.. Etc..
It would look bad. They drove off long term investors, right when the price skyrockets. Lawsuits.
3. Its simply justifying why they needed the desperate deal with Malone.
Every SEC filing, every CC, and every new release from this company from day 1(SiriusXM day 1) has smelled. This is no different. We might just have to wait and see. Its not good, I can see that much. Lets hope its just another tool for them to justify the SP, and to keep it low. But that would be the best case scenario. If they take another goodwill charge right here, I will never forgive them. To write down the XM purchase again so soon, is spitting on all XM and Sirius stockholders premerger.
I like Brandons theory about bk only XM. That actually makes sense, and I like it. Fixes their balance sheet quickly. Should send the SP to the roof if that were to happen. I dont see any negatives of it.
Continuing on...
Therefore, they are saying this extension is very important because they need the time to make sure the concern verbage is not included.
Why is it my other stocks don't give me these F$%&^#&^ problems?????????:annoyed::annoyed:
Then they are going to use NEW information in which to do this. So are they banking everything on lifesub numbers, and this "deal" that no one still knows about to generate enough cash flow to erase their auditors concerns. Wouldnt the auditors only get to look at 2008 to base their opinions on this matter on. Wouldnt any information SiriusXM uses from 09 be unaudited numbers anyway? I dont understand how they can be using anything from 09 to convince auditors they are ok for 09.Quote:
Originally Posted by imromo24
I guess IM confused on how they can use any information from 09 yet? They havent even reported q4, yet they are going to use q1 information to support the notion their company is"not a going concern".