SIRI Canada is down 30% on the year.
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SIRI Canada is down 30% on the year.
lol...are they??? i didnt check. Just seems every six months months or so...they come out with good news. On second thought maybe a good thing we dont buy it :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA
yeah they were above 10 in January I think. Now 7. You get the dividend there but... that dividend, in my opinion, is more to drive cash to parent SIRI than it is to reward XSR investors.
They do 10.5 per quarter which was about 4% annual in Jan. That's a bit more now... it's not a bad dividend if the stock was not declining.
They did a special dividend in June or July too around 58 cents.
Dividends can be nice but... they do take away from the share price on issue. If you have a $20 bil company holding $1 bil of cash and you send that cash out in a dividend, you have a $19 bil company. If the share price was $20 per and you get a $1 div, your share price is now $19 per and you have $1 .... the same.
I've yet to find anyone who can explain to me why dividends are so wonderful (on their own, that is).
Good morning- Futures looking very healthy. Sirius should finally break through 3.40 today and be on its way to 3.50.
Yeah looks like they had a nice run up over the last two years 3ish to 10ish...to the this years pullback to 7.Quote:
Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA
As far as the divs....people just like getting that green...even if its not the best use of earnings.
leaving fla today, vaca is over....time to get back to Boston.....man im gonna miss this beautiful naples weather!!
Lets have a great day everybody!!
trading back above the 200 day.... for now
a few days old....
New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest October since 2004 - See more at: http://www.jdpower.com/press-release...t-october-2014
and btw, i'm feeling pretty good about buying the dip into the low 3.30's.... bdp, you still holding those cheap shares too?
First time I have used WiFi from 35k ft above ground pretty cool stuff.
Wolf nice find on Oct sales thanks!
Looking at td amrtrd siri one day chart. Looks like the machines are in complete control again today.
Still nice to be up 7 percent or so from a few weeks ago.
Yes I am. Since there was no reason that the sp should have dropped that low after a great CC, it felt like a no brainer. Only concern is I now maxed out my margin and it would have cost me money if it declined to the high 3.20's range. At 3.40 I have added 13.6k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf Child
Hey guys, haven't been posting much, just lurking and reading everyone's posts. Congrats to those with all the good trades. I just wanted to post up a quick analysis for you guys - it's nothing earth-shattering, but figured it was pertinent for everyone to see so you can plan ahead of need be... I just added up the major financial numbers YTD and compared vs. 2014 guidance. Then looked at the YOY comparison for Q4. Unfortunately it doesn't look good for Q4 unless guidance was ultra-conservative. But in general SIRI has guided slightly lower than actual performance. In this case, hopefully they crush earnings, but it doesn't look good right now. I think SIRI will have to have unbelievable 2015 guidance to overcome what the number are showing.
I originally guessed that Q3 numbers would be horrible and Q4 would be great. But it's shaping up to be the opposite, it's interesting because Q4 is typically SIRI's best Q historically.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.... just trying to look ahead beyond the current PPS and market conditions.
Revenues YTD $3.090B vs. $4.150B guidance - implies $1.06B for Q4, which is 6% growth YOY.
FCF YTD $0.825B vs. $1.120B guidance - implies $295M for Q4 which is -3% decline YOY.
EBITDA YTD $1.086B vs. $1.425B guidance - implies $339M for Q4 which is 4% growth YOY.
Net subscribers YTD 1.175M vs. 1.5M guidance - implies 325M net subs for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3. Also, can't really compare this YOY because of GM contract shift in Q4 2013.
Net self-pay subs YTD 0.932M vs. 1.25M guidance - implies 317k net self-pay adds for Q4 which is lower than Q2 and Q3.
Paid promotional subs YTD 242k vs. 250k guidance - implies 7k net paid promo adds for Q4 which is the lowest of the year.
Well I for one am hoping you are wrong again ;)
That would be perfectly fine with me if I'm wrong again lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
Anyone have an idea when we expect Midas' $2.75 bottom that he promised? I'm counting on filling a rather large order.
End of year no later than first half of jan.Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
He posted people should be raising cash (selling) "here" and the price when he posted was $3.16.
I dunno. I spent cash there and bought. Maybe I missed something.
Looks like an obvious lowball of guidance by Meyer. REMEMBER last year's 4th quarter he got burned on a sub estimate that he had to tweak and the stock suffered badly. And I also remember him stating at one of the analysts conferences he wouldn't have that happen again when he was surprised at the stock reaction to the "tweaking".Quote:
Originally Posted by Steiny
I remember that day of the tweaking very clearly. I thought it was the first and only time Meyer truly messed up, and Mel would have never put himself in that position.....ever.
Hey Steiny what happened to newmarketplayers? They took down the site??? Take care.
Here ya go bdp:Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
Quote Originally Posted by midas360 View Post 10/07/2014
It was only because I know you. I really don't know the rest of the folks here even though we've been around awhile. Anyway...
SIRI will sell off over the course of the next quarter, its momentum down will be based largely on the large market sell off. It could get there a bit before or a bit after. So I’ll say over the next 3-4 months. The large market sell off will be attributed to some of the same things I mention will impact SIRI. Example: many of the corp buybacks will ’slow down’ because of the stress in the high yield credit markets. Corp buybacks have helped inflate the equity market (read: help increase the multiple). I can;t tell you when it will end only where its likely to end. But, I will only tell you the move has begun, and we should see a resolution over the next 3 to 4 months. It's not a one day event, its normalization.
so bdp basically to me this means dec/jan time frame.
Faulkner is also correct....Midazz was urging to sell siri about 3 weeks back and to buy back in under 3 bucks.
SIRI Canada went down 15% on Friday. Not sure why... might be the ARPU issue... but ... really who cares about a dividend of 10 cents when what you own shaves a buck in a day, right?
That being said, at $5.99 per share a 10.5 cent div is over 7% per year... that's actually quite attractive and I think it's something which should serve to support the stock here at $6 a share. Pretty strong buy, I'd say from $4.50 overreaction long term head and shoulders if it plays out, up to to $6. Even if it drags for awhile.
I did call $2.75 but you need to go reread the original analysis. I did give a time frame. :) Have a wonderful week!
p.s. earnings were nothing to get excited about. nothing there.
Actually we really don't need to go reread...You kept saying on siri down days "2.75 is on the radar". You called 2.75 and when pressed for a time frame you said "soon". When pressed to define soon you said 3 or 4 months, end of story.Quote:
Originally Posted by midas360