SIRI Monthly Thread July 2015

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07-24-2015, 11:37 AM
midas360

Btw... nice job on your Novavax (NVAX) investing. You've done very well! Keep it up. Up 150% ? We've made a small fortune investing in that one. LOVE IT!!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by njbones1

That`s the truth Midas, it`s been a real POS
07-24-2015, 11:42 AM
midas360

@Muscle... several of us in chat invested in a company called Novavax (NVAX) back in the high $3 range. Check out the 1 year on that one. We have a couple of guys up 6 figures on that stock. Talk about INVESTING! :) You won't like the metrics though. HAHAHA. They lose money but get a lot of government funding and their technology is very promising!

Edit. My guess is you won't even call that "investing" either. :) hehe

Edit 2: GAMBLING at its finest? :)
07-24-2015, 11:45 AM
dm_4

Quote:

Originally Posted by midas360

@Muscle... several of us in chat invested in a company called Novavax (NVAX) back in the high $3 range. Check out the 1 year on that one. We have a couple of guys up 6 figures on that stock. Talk about INVESTING! :) You won't like the metrics though. HAHAHA. They lose money but get a lot of government funding and their technology is very promising!

Edit. My guess is you won't even call that "investing" either. :) hehe

Edit 2: GAMBLING at its finest? :)

do we sell here and buy 2.75? lol. Have a good day all....off to "Drive to show and putt for the doe" Baby! Peace out and GOD BLESSS SIRI! :)
07-24-2015, 12:10 PM
njbones1

Very large Tax bite if sold. Been in since .11, Siri was 4.18 almost 2 yrs ago. today 3.92 great move for long term holders.
07-24-2015, 12:25 PM
midas360

Again, nice job! You are doing well. Keep it up!

Quote:

Originally Posted by njbones1

Very large Tax bite if sold. Been in since .11, Siri was 4.18 almost 2 yrs ago. today 3.92 great move for long term holders.
07-24-2015, 12:33 PM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

Not concerned with traders. They are gamblers. Plenty of people make and lose millions in casinos. That's not investing. After Mel left I was very down on Sirius. It had reached 20 times EV/EBITDA and lost a superlative CEO that brought it back from 5 cents to 3 bucks. Meyer was unproven. Apple was threatening. Who the hell on Wall Street wasn't scared? And so Sirius underperformed the S&P 500 for 2 years.

Meyer picked up Mel's FCF per share mantra. The buybacks picked up. Apple bought Beats and released a music service twice. Meyer has proven to keep subs growing at an enormous clip. Internet Streaming music is turning into a commodity. And on FCF per share Sirius should be $5 right now.

Storm has passed. The market is WRONG on Sirius. Opportunity ahead. Remember EBITDA Brandon. You laughed. You wrote EBITDA songs. I was right. And I will be right again on FCF per share. The next couple of years will prove it. Learn FCF per share.

"Traders" vs. "Buy and Hold" is a stupid argument....both are investors IF (and it's a big "if") they do their homework. You can buy a stock just because your neighbor told you about it and hold it for 10, 15, or 25 years. Maybe you make money, maybe you don't, but you sure as heck didn't do your homework. SIRI is a great case in point. If I had bought SIRI 15 years ago and held it, I don't think I'd be real happy right now. On the other hand, if I bought in March of 2009 and held, I'd be pretty happy with my long term investment. Likewise, a trader could have made and/or lost a fortune in SIRI during either of those timeframes...probably several times over.Just because you don't prefer another person's methods doesn't make them illegitimate...it just makes them different than you. Some traders are gamblers, sure....but some are savvy market-wise investors who know when and how to take advantage of short term market conditions. Some buy and hold investors are fools who hang on to a stock way too long out of sentiment or inertia or whatever, ( I know a guy that rode a $50k investment in a financial stock to $12 million over a 15-20 year timeframe and wouldn't sell a share because he didn't want to pay the cap gains....then the company went Bankrupt and was liquidated and he ended up with nothing....so at least he no longer has the tax problem) while others are patient market-wise investors who don't let short term trends scare them.
The buy and hold vs. trading argument makes about as much sense as "Stay at home mom vs. Career mom". It's a personal choice and neither is better or worse than the other. You do what you are comfortable doing and both choices have their advantages and disadvantages. Many Buy and hold investors have a trading account and do both. In fact I've read several members here who seem to have their long term SIRI "core" and then their "trading shares".
07-24-2015, 12:45 PM
midas360

I've never understood the argument of "not selling because you don't want to pay the capital gains." To me, that's the price of doing business. I would take .70 cents on the dollar any day of the week or whatever your tax rate is. Also, an investor is a person who allocates capital with the expectation of a future financial return. No where does it give a "time frame" on that future return. Hell, if you can make it within an hour, day, week, month, years... so be it, right?

Edit: I am not here to judge others on theie trading style. In all fairness, people do whatever works for them. If you don't like selling stocks because of the capital gain liability, great. I know some investors/traders/etc that hold their investments for 12 months or more so they only pay the 20% LT Cap Gain rate. I think that's a fair argument.

Quote:

Originally Posted by user34615145

"Traders" vs. "Buy and Hold" is a stupid argument....both are investors IF (and it's a big "if") they do their homework. You can buy a stock just because your neighbor told you about it and hold it for 10, 15, or 25 years. Maybe you make money, maybe you don't, but you sure as heck didn't do your homework. SIRI is a great case in point. If I had bought SIRI 15 years ago and held it, I don't think I'd be real happy right now. On the other hand, if I bought in March of 2009 and held, I'd be pretty happy with my long term investment. Likewise, a trader could have made and/or lost a fortune in SIRI during either of those timeframes...probably several times over.Just because you don't prefer another person's methods doesn't make them illegitimate...it just makes them different than you. Some traders are gamblers, sure....but some are savvy market-wise investors who know when and how to take advantage of short term market conditions. Some buy and hold investors are fools who hang on to a stock way too long out of sentiment or inertia or whatever, ( I know a guy that rode a $50k investment in a financial stock to $12 million over a 15-20 year timeframe and wouldn't sell a share because he didn't want to pay the cap gains....then the company went Bankrupt and was liquidated and he ended up with nothing....so at least he no longer has the tax problem) while others are patient market-wise investors who don't let short term trends scare them.
The buy and hold vs. trading argument makes about as much sense as "Stay at home mom vs. Career mom". It's a personal choice and neither is better or worse than the other. You do what you are comfortable doing and both choices have their advantages and disadvantages. Many Buy and hold investors have a trading account and do both. In fact I've read several members here who seem to have their long term SIRI "core" and then their "trading shares".
07-24-2015, 02:10 PM
njbones1

Let me be clear, I sold 25000 shrs of SIRI in Jan. this yr., put that money into NVAX In Jan., up many $ with that move. still holding 25000 shrs. waiting for a miracle or next Jan. Thanks for everyones concern
07-24-2015, 02:23 PM
user34615145

Quote:

Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

Somewhat banking on AAPL not leaving gaps on way up if it goes ... not like the rise into earnings. I figure if it does gap it'll pop and backfill like it did today... it's why I didn't trust it after I ran a trade and left it alone. Calls will be cheap tomorrow if you pick what expires that day. Just be sure of direction and you can make a lot on a percentage basis very fast.

Figure for 300 $0.25 calls gonna cost you $7500 but every penny you get pays you $300 back beyond the first penny. Stock can easily move $0.30 in minutes. Just have to time it right on a trend break on a micro scale. Charts work the same no matter what timeframe you use, generally.

FYI, I decided to sit today out. I'll revisit Monday.
07-24-2015, 03:06 PM
MUSCLE13

I really cannot believe what I am reading here. Does anybody know how to calculate stock values by using mathematical calculations here at all???? When you are buying a stock you are buying future earnings - whether that is free cash flow per share, EV/EBITDA or eps. YOU ARE BUYING EARNINGS!!!!! It's not timing. It's not trading, It's not buying and holding. IT IS MATH! Over an extended period of time it is ALWAYS EARNINGS! Oh forget it. Nobody wants to put in any effort at all. Go buy lotto. Have a ball...........

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