SIRI Intraday Thread: Tuesday March 31st

Hi cos1000, good to here your business is doing o.k.
I don't trade that stock anymore, but I probably add more shares.
I just don't know exactly when and at what price. Maybe waiting till after the Q1 and buy on a dip. But with that stock you never know, maybe it will go up even after a bad Q1.

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Originally Posted by cos1000

Hey choirgirl, nice to see out at night.... my small construction business has me out during the day, if you can believe that in this market....., but no crying over spilled milk from where I always am.............. having said that .... forget the pennies unless that's how your making money.... this thing could easily test .28 - .29 in the next couple weeks while waiting for Q1 report. I can't play that because it will happen too quickly, bringing me out of shares, trying to chase a false bottom.. Some will try, but they will not make money on their attempt. I've been in this equity too long to not wait for the Q1 bad news to get out, buy shares on a drop, an make some money when it goes up. I don't trade core positions, but do trade small transitional amounts on what I see on an inevitable down turn, based on a bad Q1... The market will react down and then retrace... its the way it is and there is no way to play it with certainty... The Trade is a gamble.... so hope that helps....

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Since everyone is expecting negative sub growth in Q1, what if they report flat to positive sub growth and there is a major short squeeze?

Could it happen?

The green Manalishi with the two pronged crown.

choirgirl.... what does this mean.... interesting but has me in the dark....

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Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

GM Distribution Agreement
The Company has a long-term distribution agreement with GM. During the term of the agreement, which expires in 2013, GM has agreed to distribute the service to the exclusion of other S-band satellite digital radio services. Under the distribution agreement, the Company is required to make a subscriber acquisition payment to GM for each person who becomes and remains an XM subscriber through the purchase of a GM vehicle.
In April 2006, the Company amended the distribution agreement pursuant to which the Company made a prepayment in May 2006 in the amount of $237.0 million to GM to retire at a discount $320.3 million of the remaining fixed payment obligations that would have come due in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The April 2006 amendments eliminated the Company’s ability to make up to $35.0 million of subscriber acquisition payments in shares of the Company’s Class A common stock. As of June 30, 2008, the Company had $26.0 million of current related party prepaid expense and $110.6 million of non-current related party prepaid expense in connection with the guaranteed fixed payments as a result of the $237.0 million prepayment in May 2006. In February 2008, the Company entered into an amended and restated agreement with GM that folds together the previously separate distribution and credit agreements with GM. The amended and restated agreement’s terms remain substantially similar to those of the previously separate agreements, except for the establishment of a new minimum pre-marketing cash flow threshold for 2008 that the Company will need to meet in order to make draws under the GM credit facility in 2009.
In order to encourage the broad installation of XM radios in GM vehicles, the Company has agreed to subsidize a portion of the cost of XM radios and to make incentive payments to GM when the owners of GM vehicles with installed XM radios become subscribers to the Company’s service. The Company must also share with GM a percentage of the subscription revenue attributable to GM vehicles with installed XM radios, which percentage increases until there are more than eight million GM vehicles with installed XM radios. The Company has met this threshold and the percentage is constant. Revenue share expense is recognized as the related subscription revenue is earned. As of June 30, 2008, the Company had $60.6 million of current related party prepaid expense and $16.5 million of non-current related party prepaid expense in connection with this revenue sharing arrangement. As part of the agreement, GM provides certain call-center related services directly to XM subscribers who are also GM customers for which the Company must reimburse GM. The agreement is subject to renegotiation at any time based upon the installation of radios that are compatible with a common receiver platform or capable of receiving Sirius’ radio service. The agreement is subject to renegotiation at two-year intervals, beginning in November 2005, if GM does not achieve and maintain specified installation levels of GM vehicles capable of receiving the Company’s service. The specified installation level of 1,240,000 units by November 2005 was achieved in 2004. The specified installation levels in future years are the lesser of 600,000 units per year or amounts proportionate to targets in the satellite digital radio service industry. There can be no assurances as to the outcome of any such renegotiations. GM’s exclusivity obligations will discontinue if, by November 2009 and at two-year intervals thereafter, the Company fails to achieve and maintain specified minimum share levels in the satellite digital radio service industry. The Company believes it was exceeding the minimum levels at December 31, 2007. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2008, the Company incurred total costs of $86.5 million and $169.0 million, respectively, under the distribution agreement; while for the comparable periods in 2007, the Company incurred costs of $70.5 million and $131.8 million, respectively.

Go ahead. Where in this agreement does GM pay XM anything?

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Brandon, tell the truth.... Are you really Chuck Norris in disguise? Come clean if not your a freak of nature at the least. :D

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Originally Posted by Demian

Since everyone is expecting negative sub growth in Q1, what if they report flat to positive sub growth and there is a major short squeeze?

Could it happen?

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Demian,

I am not a believer in this stock at these low prices ever getting a short squeeze more than a couple of pennies..... I mean really, this stock has been so beat up, any short is a hedge and is the reason for flat growth even with good news..... The BK was what took it down and something significant needs to happen positive to take it up.... no squeeze... just growth and new revenue....

cos1000, it is the title of one of the early hits from Fleetwood Mac.

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Originally Posted by cos1000

The green Manalishi with the two pronged crown.

choirgirl.... what does this mean.... interesting but has me in the dark....

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Originally Posted by Demian

Since everyone is expecting negative sub growth in Q1, what if they report flat to positive sub growth and there is a major short squeeze?

Could it happen?

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I guess it's possible, but considering the fact that all we heard about for the majority of the 1Q was how we were going BK, I just don't see it happening.

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Originally Posted by Demian

Since everyone is expecting negative sub growth in Q1, what if they report flat to positive sub growth and there is a major short squeeze?

Could it happen?

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Flat to positive? NO. Absolutely not. Retail. There are no radios on the shelves. The article by TWICE explains that which is obviously the reason no marketing push existed(s)

Jan auto sales abysmal.
February auto sales worse than abysmal
March auto sales due out this friday are expected to be in line with February sales....worse than abysmal.

The good news. Penetration rates are up. Best of both being offered by oems as part of trials. Upgraded subscriptions such as best of and Internet increase will add to bottom line.

In other words, negative sub growth and higher revenue, on decreased costs. EPS, all that matters. If EPS is inline or better, stock goes up. Subs wont matter because guidance will be better. (i know its no guidance now, but oem increases may equal 14 million units) which will also help.

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Originally Posted by choirgirl

cos1000, it is the title of one of the early hits from Fleetwood Mac.

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Now when the day goes to sleep and the full moon looks
And the night is so black that the darkness cooks
And you come creeping around, making me do things I don't want to do

I can't believe that you need my love so bad
Always sneakin' around, trying to drive me mad
Bustin in all my dreams, making me see things I don't want to see

'Cause you're the Green Manalishi with the two-pronged crown
All my tryin' is up - all your bringin' is down
Stricken my lovin, slip away and leave me here
Trying to keep from following you




Google Search is always a good thing.....

hey brandon,

just wanted to thank you for all the information you share with us. i got on your case pretty hard a while back when you seemed to let your emotions dictate your position on siri more than the facts. but since then, you've been really helpful to this all of us reading this board by providing sound advice, good insights into the company, and a strong commitment to dealing with the facts as you know them. I apologize for giving you a hard time. thanks for your contributions out here.

as a long time siri investor, i appreciate the positive outlook that you've tried to put out there regarding siri when the rest of msm finds it so comfy to just bash the crap out of siri. just read an article today warning against the threat of pandora, stitcher and other web based alternatives to siri. thank goodness we have you providing balanced coverage.

Brandon, sometimes I think it doesn't matter whether the news are good or bad. Despite the bad news for the autoindustrie the markets are up.
OECD expect minus 4.1 GDP in Europe and 5.3 % in Germany alone plus a 12% unemployment rate, but the DAX is up 2.5 % so is the rest in Europe.
The numbers for Japan are even worse, guess what the Nikkei is up 3%.
I start to believe waiting a year to get all this recession behind us is the best one can do.

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Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews

Flat to positive? NO. Absolutely not. Retail. There are no radios on the shelves. The article by TWICE explains that which is obviously the reason no marketing push existed(s)

Jan auto sales abysmal.
February auto sales worse than abysmal
March auto sales due out this friday are expected to be in line with February sales....worse than abysmal.

The good news. Penetration rates are up. Best of both being offered by oems as part of trials. Upgraded subscriptions such as best of and Internet increase will add to bottom line.

In other words, negative sub growth and higher revenue, on decreased costs. EPS, all that matters. If EPS is inline or better, stock goes up. Subs wont matter because guidance will be better. (i know its no guidance now, but oem increases may equal 14 million units) which will also help.

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